GENERAL OVERVIEW OF FEBRUARY 2019

February 2019 was characterised by an unusually low number of recorded disaster events, registering less than a quarter of the five-year average of occurrences for the month. Although the region experienced scattered rain showers in the south, and generally dry and hazy conditions in the north, the record-breaking low number of impact on communities (only 6% and 1% of the five-year average number for affected and displaced people respectively) could reflect the improving effectiveness of disaster management practices among ASEAN Member States. On the other hand, the recorded number of damaged houses was more than five times the five-year average. An overwhelming majority of the damage was caused by hailstorms and strong winds in Northeastern Viet Nam. Fortunately, about 84% (or 3,436) houses incurred only minor damage. In general, February 2019 was a more settled month for disaster managers across the region.

In addition to Indonesia’s South Solok Regency earthquake that resulted to minor damages, there were 30 other earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 and above in Indonesia and the Philippines during February. While still a high number, it forms only 48% compared to last month’s seismic activities of the same strength. There was also intensified dynamicity in volcanic activities in the region, most notably in Indonesia. Fortunately, only Mt. Karangetang (on Siau Island) experienced damage, which was also considered minor. This result is influenced by the increasing awareness of both authorities and communities to volcano-related risks, and their improved cooperation to mitigate and prevent impacts and damages.

SEASONAL OUTLOOK

The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre reported that the prevailing Northeastern Monsoon season is expected to transition into the inter-monsoon period by the end of March 2019. During the inter-monsoon period, the region is expected to experience an increase in rain activity. This is good news for the Mekong sub-region, as it will help ease transboundary smoke haze in the area. However, this could also mean flooding, rain-induced landslides, and other hydrological hazards in the equatorial and southern parts of the ASEAN region – particularly in Indonesia and Malaysia. There remains a likelihood that the hotspots and smoke haze conditions in the Mekong sub-region could persist, however, it is expected that the prevailing dry season in northern ASEAN will gradually come to an end by April 2019.

With the expected increase in hydro-meteorological activities within the region, the AHA Centre is preparing by strengthening efforts to share early-warning information, and monitoring data and information between the Centre and National Disaster Management Organisations (NDMOs). This is being undertaken through conducting an ASEAN Workshop on Disaster Reporting and Big Data for Disaster Management, and the development of the proposed AHA Centre Information Management Technical Working Group (AIM-TWG). The workshop aims to build regional and national capacity in utilising current and new information and communication technologies, while AIM-TWG is envisioned to be a platform for cooperation and collaboration between and among AHA Centre and NDMOs for strengthening regional and national disaster information management capacities, capabilities, and practices.

Written by : Eviana Rosida, Lawrence Anthony Dimailig

GENERAL OVERVIEW OF DECEMBER 2018

As generally expected for the “winter” or Northeast monsoon period, the southern part of ASEAN – particularly Indonesia, Malaysia, southern Philippines and Thailand – experienced an increase in floods during December 2018. Some areas within those countries also experienced landslides due to heavy rainfall in mountainous areas.

In terms of geological hazards, 32 earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 or higher were reported in December, compared to 18 earthquakes recorded during December of 2017. However, none of the recorded seismic activities had significant effects to constitute a disastrous event. A M7.2 earthquake with a deep epicentre of 60 km below the earth’s surface was also reported near Davao Oriental, the Philippines, which triggered a tsunami warning – although the warning was eventually cancelled. In general, there were no fatalities or significant damage directly caused by earthquakes this month. However, there was one undetected tsunami event in Sunda Strait that caused significant number of fatalities and damage in Banten and Lampung Provinces of Indonesia. The tsunami, that struck on the evening of December 22, was triggered by landslide on Mount Anak Krakatau, that resulted from a series of eruptions and general increased volcanic activity on the mountain that sits in the middle of the Sunda Strait. From post-event observations, Mt. Anak Krakatau was found to have reduced in height from 1,800 metres to 357 metres, based on pre and post-tsunami images released by the Indonesian Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT). Consequently, the Centre for Volcanology and Geological Disaster Mitigation (PVMBG) elevated the alert status from advisory to watch (level III out of maximum IV).

OUTLOOK FOR JANUARY 2019

In the first week of the fortnight, a northeast monsoon surge is expected to cause wetter conditions in the South China Sea, particularly over coastal Thailand and Viet Nam. Related stronger monsoonal winds are likely to bring wetter weather to areas around the Java Sea as well. Conversely, drier conditions are expected over the Philippines. According to PAGASA climatology of tropical cyclones, there is a possibility of up to one tropical cyclone passing through the Philippines in January. Colder conditions in the highlands of the northern ASEAN region are forecasted. Following the cold conditions in the first week, should there be a sudden drop in temperatures, it might result in increased risk of flash floods with melting of snow or increased precipitation in the highlands.

Later in the month, the wetter conditions over the South China Sea are likely to spread further southward to affect the north-eastern coast of Peninsular Malaysia and southern Thailand. Thunderstorms are expected near the equatorial belt as the trade winds will bring heavier rainfall across the South China Sea towards Peninsular Malaysia and Singapore from the eastern front. Areas around the Java Sea are likely to become drier during this period.

The prevailing Northeast Monsoon is expected to persist until March 2019. This will bring occasional extended periods of dry weather in the northern ASEAN region during this period. Tropical storms and depressions will generally pass through Central and Southern Philippines, and towards Central and Southern Viet Nam bringing heavier rainfall in these regions. Cold spells will also be common in the northern lowland provinces of Viet Nam.

Written by : Qing Yuan Pang