Vol 60 – NATURAL DISASTER RESPONSE DURING PANDEMICS
NATURAL DISASTER RESPONSE
DURING PANDEMICS
Disasters can happen at any time, and the occurrence of a pandemic, such as the world currently faces, means natural disaster becomes more challenging to manage and potentially more dangerous to communities. Dealing with response and recovery from natural disaster during the midst of the coronavirus pandemic raises an array of new and unsettling questions. Who has to respond? What assistance may be provided if hospitals are treating COVID-19 patients? What if there is already a scarcity of medical supplies and resources? Where are evacuees sheltered and housed if there is need to ensure displaced people can continue social distancing?
Additionally, the timeframe for managing such a multi-dimensional challenge could be up to months, and likely even years, throughout which both the pandemic response and potential natural disaster response must both be considered. There is also a history of epidemics that follow natural disasters.
The 2004 South Asian Tsunami that killed more than 250,000 people and displaced more than 1.7 million across 16 countries, also produced ideal conditions for an Acute Respiratory Infection outbreak in Aceh, Indonesia – already the worst hit region after the disaster. In 2010, the first Cholera outbreak in more than a century in Haiti resulted in 8,183 deaths, both amplifying and amplified by damage to infrastructure caused by the huge earthquake.
So on one hand, there is the fact that COVID-19 counter measures could hamper the emergency response to disasters, while on the other hand disaster situations will potentially disrupt current pandemic response actions (such as social distancing) that can increase the potential for increased spread of the virus.
With the current coronavirus pandemic adding a new layer of challenges and risks, community leaders must undertake structured planning for how they will deal with the worst-case scenario.
Planning includes asking and answering questions such as: What can go wrong? How likely is it to happen? What are the consequences? What resources do we need to mitigate the risk?
According to scientists at the University of Melbourne, there are four pre-emptive strategies that governments can adopt to counter the risks of COVID-19 and natural hazards.
PRE-EMPTIVE STRATEGIES TO COUNTER THE RISKS OF COVID-19 AND NATURAL HAZARDS
First, identifying possible pandemic-natural disaster hybrid scenarios, including worst-case scenarios is critical. This requires the building of new hybrid forecast models that combine existing pandemic projection models and natural hazard forecasting.
Second, emergency responses to extreme events can be modified in advance by considering seasonal weather forecasting models. As technology can provide predictions of possible natural hazards in the coming months, planning ahead is key.
Third, a re-design of policy responses is needed to address different natural hazards, with a focus on social distancing. Policy changes must be introduced to a wide range of post-disaster activities, ranging from emergency aid distribution to providing shelter.
Finally, supporting relief agencies serving lower income communities or regions and their governments is important, as impacts of compound effects on these areas are likely to be disproportionately high.
Although an epidemic does not usually fall within the disaster management sector, in terms of scale and suffering, it potentially should. While it may be difficult and hard to think of the additional risk caused by a second crisis at this time, risk management requires exactly that—staying ahead of events and always being prepared to respond.
Written by : Ina Rachmawati | Source : theconversation.com & www.preventionweb.net
- Published in Insight
Vol 60 – FUN WAY TO LEARN DISASTER THROUGH A GAME
FUN WAY
TO LEARN DISASTER THROUGH A GAME
Various natural hazards ranging from floods, tsunamis, earthquake and roaring hurricanes. It is probably not an easy feat to try to explain this to children. But there is actually a simulation game that educators can utilise so that children can learn how to respond to and mitigate disaster through an internet game.
The game was launched by United Nations in 2007 as part of World Disaster Reduction Campaign; it is simulating natural hazards and serves as an interactive educational tool for children. Targeted for age 9-16 years old audience, the player role is to plan and construct a safer environment for their local population by assessing disaster risk and limiting damage inflicted during a natural hazard strike.
The UN/ISDR secretariat developed the online video game based on the great success of the board game called “Riskland” for children aged 6 to 9, which was developed jointly with UNICEF. The Riskland game has been widely used worldwide in different languages, including local languages.
The on-line game called “Stop Disasters” (www.stopdisastersgame.org) aims at sensitising children on basic notions of disaster risk reduction in a fun and entertaining manner. Its main objective is to raise awareness about the issue but do not pretend to educate children on all the aspects of disaster risk reduction issues. The game is also supported by a website offering more information and teacher guides on natural hazards.
The game includes five natural hazard scenarios (flooding, tsunami, wildfire, hurricane and earthquake) set in five different geographic environments with three different levels of difficulty that require critical decision-making and strategic planning.
This online game aims at teaching children how to build safer villages and cities against disasters. Children will learn through playing how the location and the construction materials of houses can make a difference when disasters strike and how early warning systems, evacuation plans and education can save lives.
The player assumes the role of a contractor in charge of improving the area’s response to specific natural disasters. Within a set time limit, the player must manage their resources in order to construct and reinforce local buildings, conduct training, and purchase warning systems to help make the community safer.
Each scenario takes place in various locations around the world and focuses on disasters common to that area. For example, the tsunami scenario takes place in Southeast Asia, while the wildfires scenario takes place in Australia.
GAMEPLAY
The player is given a lot of freedom to make choices in the game. They can choose what to develop and where to develop it, and they can choose between developing buildings or creating defence systems. Once a structure is made, they can choose if or how they will upgrade it. The player has a set budget and they can decide how to distribute their money and which members of the population to spend it on.
The player is given a generic amount of time before a disaster strikes. They can use that time to invest in their community and build structures, create defences, and invest in warning systems and population training. Each scenario comes with a list of goals that must be met before the disaster strikes. For example, the player might have to build a school, house a certain amount of people, and develop the local economy (such as building a certain number of hotels). Each scenario also has some generic goals related to lowering the costs of the destruction and loss of life during and after the disaster. The challenge comes from managing the resources available: limited time and money and terrain-related building restrictions. The player is not given any implicit directions once the game controls are explained and is expected to figure out the game strategy on their own by clicking on objects and trying out different actions.
The game is a real-time, self-guided, point-and-click, grid-based map simulation. The player interacts with the game by clicking on objects on the map and on menus. All actions can be completed using a mouse. The player is expected to find information independently, and will be rewarded for exploring and making good choices with tooltips that appear after the action has been completed. This self-guided nature of the game drive the player to do multiple tries before correctly strategies the game play. reduces the learning component by preventing the player from acting purposefully on this information. A player’s knowledge may actually be minimized by this method because they may not be able to find all of the tooltips in the allotted time. However, the option to start the disaster early was useful as a self-guided feature because the player may finish before the time is up.
Written by : Ina Rachmawati | Source : www.stopdisastersgame.org, www.undrr.org, www.unric.org & web.cs.wpi.edu
- Published in Insight
Vol 60 – MONTHLY DISASTER REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
MONTHLY DISASTER REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
APRIL 2020 | DISASTER MONITORING & ANALYSIS
(DMA) UNIT, AHA CENTRE
GENERAL REVIEW OF APRIL 2020
The month of April 2020 evidenced a clear deviation in figures of significant disaster occurrences in comparison to the previous five-year average for April, with an 87% increase of events recorded for the month. A majority of disasters (86%) for the month of April were flooding events, with storms (11%) and landslides (3%) also registered. However, despite the increase in occurrences of significant disasters, the impact in terms of affected people was significantly lower than the five-year average with an 81% decrease. The number of people displaced by disaster events also decreased (46% less), however the impact was more severe on people’s homes with a 2 ½ times increase of damaged houses reported (17,241 in total). There were 85% less deaths as well as less injuries for April 2020 in comparison to the previous five years. 50% of all disasters for the month occurred in one week alone (week 18), which may be attributed to an increase in precipitation rates of approximately 100mm across the Indonesian islands of Sumatra and Java, compared to the previous averages during that single week.
Geophysically, for April 2020, 21 earthquakes with magnitudes greater than or equal to 5.0M were recorded by respective ASEAN Member States’ local seismic authorities. For the first half of April 2020, six volcanoes in Indonesia displayed increased activity but remained at Alert Level II according to Indonesia’s Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVBMG). Meanwhile later in the month, three volcanoes in Indonesia (Agung, Sinabung, and Karangetang) moved to at Alert Level III, with one volcano in the Philippines (Mayon) on Alert Level 2. This highlights the importance of earthquake preparedness and the immediacy of response in tectonically active countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines based on their location along the Pacific Ring of Fire.
SEASONAL OUTLOOK
During the May to July 2020 period, rainfall over the northern ASEAN region is forecast at below-average rates. Similar forecasts for rainfall conditions are predicted for most parts of western mainland Southeast Asia (Myanmar, northern Thailand and northern Laos), however most parts of the southern ASEAN region can expect above-average rainfall. Overall, the entire ASEAN region can expect above-average temperatures.
In the Mekong sub-region, the start of the Southwest Monsoon period should improve haze conditions and gradually subdue hotspot and fire activities. In the southern ASEAN region, hotspot activities are expected to remain generally subdued for May 2020. However, a gradual increase in hotspot activities, particularly in the fire-prone areas of Sumatra and Kalimantan, can be expected from June with the onset of the traditional dry season in the southern ASEAN region.
Data Sources: ASEAN Disaster Information Network, ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre
Written by : Keith Landicho and Lawrence Anthony Dimailig
DISCLAIMER
Disclaimer: AHA Centre’s estimation is based on data and information shared by National Disaster Management Organisations (NDMOs) and other relevant agencies from ASEAN Member States, international organisations and news agencies. Further information on each recorded-significant disaster, description and detail of data and information are available at: http://adinet.ahacentre.org/reports.
- Published in Monthly Disaster Outlook
Vol 60 – ASEAN VILLAGE – NEW HOMES FOR TSUNAMI SURVIVORS IN PALU
ASEAN VILLAGE – NEW HOMES
FOR TSUNAMI SURVIVORS IN PALU
The October 2018 earthquake and tsunami disaster in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, stands as one of the largest disaster responses undertaken by the AHA Centre in its history, and while the initial shock of the disaster has dissipated, work to rebuild the region’s infrastructure and communities has continued throughout 2019 and into 2020. Aside from the initial disaster response, this also forms the AHA Centre’s first foray into ongoing recovery activities, with the development of the ASEAN Village standing as the region’s input into the longer-term efforts to support the people of Palu City and its surrounds.
During April 2020, the AHA Centre in its role facilitating the ongoing support from ASEAN Member States, coordinated the official handover of the ASEAN Village to the Government of Palu City. Although it was undertaken online due to the limitations caused by the global pandemic, the handover maintained its true value for all involved, as the Mayor of Palu City Mr. Drs. Hidayat, other key government officials, an array of ASEAN dignitaries and other key programme representatives came together for the handover of outcomes from the new and innovative project.
Recounting the implementation of the project in her opening speech, the AHA Centre’s Executive Director Ms. Adelina Kamal said “In the early recovery period, we submitted a proposal to BNPB for the construction of temporary shelters, with funds received from the Philippine Government and from the people of Brunei Darussalam. With operational funds from Australia, we formed a team in the field, full time, to follow through the mandate and maintain the trust given by the Government of the Philippines and the people of Brunei, and to coordinate closely with the local government”.
Overall, the ASEAN Village project developed and delivered 75 new homes to the affected communities in the Tondo area of Palu City. Thanks to the generous support of the Government of Brunei Darussalam and Direct Relief, another 25 dwellings and additional structures, such as an auxiliary health centre and a mosque, will be developed in the coming months. The project was implemented in partnership with the Housing and Settlement Department of the Palu Government, and utilised USD 723,647 to develop the homes across a 22,600sqm area. The project implementation also received additional support from the Government of the Philippines and the Government of Australia.
Funds from the Brunei Darussalam Government were a result of crowd-sourcing directly from the people of Brunei Darussalam, which forms the first time ASEAN citizens directly providing funding to an AHA Centre project. Meanwhile, the Philippines provided support as part of its solidarity to the tsunami survivors in Palu, even the country was still recovering from its own disaster, Typhoon Mangkhut, which struck the country in September 2018.
“On behalf of the Government of Palu City, we confirm that the 75 houses are well received. We hope that these permanent houses handed over by the AHA Centre will bring happiness and improve the welfare of the tsunami-affected people of Palu City.”
– Mr Hidayat, The Mayor of Palu
“For the first time, the AHA Centre got involved in the recovery phase, not only during emergency response phase. We plan to properly document these experiences at the end of our project in Palu. We also hope that the ASEAN Village in Palu can serve as a model and can be done in other ASEAN Member States.”
– Ms. Adelina Kamal
Written by : William Shea | Photo Credit : AHA Centre
- Published in Highlight
Vol 59 – JOMMEL MERANO
JOMMEL MERANO
Jommel Merano is the National Logistics Officer for the Disaster Emergency Logistics System for ASEAN (DELSA), based in one of the two new DELSA satellite warehouses – located in the Philippines. He joined the AHA Centre team in late 2018 with two decades of experience in the disaster management sector, including working with the Philippines Office of Civil Defense (1999-2012) and the Philippine Red Cross (2012-2015). Drawn to the humanitarian field by the opportunity to further support communities around him, Jommel says the work brings him pride and joy. He feels that continuing such work with the AHA Centre allows him to play his noble part supporting his country and the region in the face of disaster.
Jommel first engaged with the AHA Centre in its early years when he was part of the second ASEAN Emergency Response and Assessment Team (ASEAN-ERAT) training, and has since been deployed to six disaster missions – five within the Philippines and one in Indonesia. He has felt lucky to continue contributing to developing future ASEAN-ERAT members as a facilitator and mentor during the 6th, 7th, 9th and 10th ASEAN-ERAT Induction Courses. Jommel has also participated in a range of regional activities, and has recently completed the ASEAN-ERAT Level 2 Advance Course on Humanitarian Logistics.
“Such deployments and trainings continue to provide me an in depth understanding of ASEAN regional disaster mechanisms”
– Jommel Merano
Joining the AHA Centre through his role in the Philippines DELSA satellite warehouse, Jommel recognised the great opportunity to take part in the historic establishment and expansion of the DELSA system. Not only did it give him the opportunity to be part of something new and exciting, but also a chance to further engage and support not only the Philippines but also the other ASEAN Member States who are so well supported by the DELSA mechanism. More specifically, the role sees Jommel responsible for managing activities related to mobilisation, monitoring and maintenance of AHA Centre’s relief stock items that are stored at the satellite warehouse facility.
Jommel’s experience both recently with the DELSA programme and more broadly within the disaster management system as a whole has given him some clear and relevant insights on the future of disaster management for ASEAN and its people. He applies this to his current role when he states that “humanitarian logistics has always been an important factor in disaster relief operations”. “Now that the AHA Centre has established DELSA satellite warehouses in the ASEAN region, deployment of ASEAN relief items will become easier, and it will increase the speed and scale of ASEAN response” he continues.
“The commitment and engagement of ASEAN Member State National Disaster Management Organisations towards humanitarian logistics will surely result in increased capacity throughout ASEAN disaster management practices, which is strongly in line with the vision of One ASEAN One Response.”
Written by : William Shea | Photo : AHA Centre
- Published in The Other Side
Vol 59 – HOW THE AHA CENTRE – ICT TEAM MANAGING TRANSITION FROM OFFICE JOB TO WORK-AT-HOME
HOW THE AHA CENTRE – ICT TEAM
MANAGING TRANSITION
FROM OFFICE JOB TO WORK-AT-HOME
Working from home, or WFH, during this time can influence us to make changes to anticipate various pitfalls: difficulty communicating efficiently, lack of access to information, lack of supervision (causing anxiety for both managers and employees), and social isolation. As any other organisation, the AHA Centre team relies much on the ICT team to help the transition from work in office to work from home. The team provides and creates a breakthrough to make work easier from home.
UTILISE VARIOUS COMMUNICATION TOOLS AND ESTABLISH GROUND RULES
Before WFH arrangement, there were only two user accounts available for video conference. Since the demand has multiplied exponentially the team has provided five accounts for video call using Zoom, a backup service using WebEx, and for urgent meetings using Google Meet.
All staff has access to this communication tool for their need in collaborating and coordinating with colleagues and partners. ICT team will monitor the access request and make sure everyone can utilise the service.
TEAM COLLABORATION
Before WFH set up, it is easier to have daily catch-up with team members to ensure smooth collaboration. Furthermore, it is a normal routine to have frequent team meeting to have a quick catch-up where everyone has the opportunity to have a quick question and answer, which during WFH is no longer possible. So how is working from home going to impact team work dynamic in the AHA Centre?
In the beginning, we all have to struggle to keep up with our work and adjust to work from home. Hard copy notes and documents were daily routines, but since the WFH set up, ICT team had to speed up the usage of Zoho, where the hard copy documents and administrative process are processed to a digital record and approval is done via digital documentation.
CREATE A WORK FROM HOME POLICY ACCESSIBLE TO EVERYONE
Since the work from home policy, ICT Team has created an internal website that provides the latest office policy during the WFH set up. Everyone can access it at all times and everyone knows where to find it. People will be able to find answers to a lot of questions they might have about working from home, whether with regard to remote access, scheduling and working hours, or communication channels.
This will become an important document on the journey to remote working to refer to, not only in times of emergency but also in the future.
CREATE A COLLABORATIVE REMOTE WORKING ENVIRONMENT
The AHA Centre staff relies on frequent contact with colleagues and team members in day-to-day work. It is crucial to create a working environment enabling open collaboration. There is a couple of things the ICT team has explored to help staff members connect and collaborate such as:
First, provide by request link for team huddles via video conferencing tools such as Zoom or Hangouts Meet.
Second, rovide suggestion for team collaboration using various software and platform for better team collaboration, such as using Google Whiteboard, Wooclap for Team, and Miro.
Everyone has to figure out how to strengthen virtual collaboration and meetings to communicate but also to celebrate daily victories. This will help the team members stay engaged, focused and productive, as well as fight the feelings of isolation and uncertainty one might have in an unusual, stressful situation.
Having to transition a workforce to working from home in a limited time isn’t easy. However, in the digital age, it is also not impossible. The AHA Centre will continue to provide the staff with the right equipment, tools, and resources to stay productive.
Written by : Ina Rachmawati | Source : ICT Team
- Published in AHA Centre Diary 1
Vol 59 – ESTONIAN RESCUE BOARD (ERB)
ESTONIAN RESCUE BOARD (ERB)
2020 will see a new project implemented by the AHA Centre known as LACER – or Shortening the Learning Curve of AHA Centre through Support from EU Civil Protection Agencies.
LACER’s specific objectives are to (1) strengthen the capacity and sustainability of the AHA Centre towards achieving operational excellence in disaster monitoring, preparedness and emergency response, and; (2) to enhance mechanisms for ASEAN leadership to respond as one, through excellence and innovation in disaster management.
As seen in the Column Volume 58, the LACER – or Shortening the Learning Curve of AHA Centre through Support from EU Civil Protection Agencies project will be implemented through a consortium led by the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB), alongside the Estonian Rescue Board (ERB). In Volume 58’s Partnership article we learnt about the MSB, therefore for this issue we will take a further look into the ERB.
ESTONIAN RESCUE BOARD (ERB)
The Estonian Rescue Board is a public authority under the Estonian Ministry of the Interior. ERB employs over 2,100 people making it the third-largest public sector institution in Estonia. The ERB operates within five key areas, being prevention, safety surveillance, rescue work, explosive ordnance disposal, and emergency management.
As an emergency management authority the ERB has been involved as a partner in developing the emergency services of several disaster-prone nations in the European region, such as working supporting Armenia, Georgia, Moldova and the Ukraine. ERB offers expert knowledge in national and international disaster management and logistics, and delivers training, exercises, advisory services and mentoring to its partners. Depending on the context, ERB can also mobilise external experts from different fields of specialisation for international deployment to disaster, usually within areas such as ICT, health, education and civil engineering.
The ERB has departments that develop, plan and manage activities, as well as Regional Rescue Centres and the Explosive Ordnance Disposal Centre that implements the activities in the field. North, South, East and West Regional Rescue Centres undertake tasks such as day-to-day rescue work, fire safety surveillance, emergency prevention, and crisis management.
ERB is actively involved in European Union cooperation, and is an active member in Union Civil Protection Mechanism (UCPM), and has experts in the Union Civil Protection Team (UCPT) and Urban Search and Rescue (USAR), as well as in the European Civil Protection Pool (ECPP). The ERB is an active partner of the International Humanitarian Partnership (IHP), of which it currently sits as chairman until the end of 2020.
The LACER Project is the first consortium project across region involving the AHA Centre, MSB and ERB on Disaster Management Capacity building.
Written by : Ina Rachmawati | Photo : AHA Centre
- Published in Partnership
Vol 59 – PANDEMICS THROUGHOUT HISTORY
PANDEMICS
THROUGHOUT HISTORY
We have begun the new decade with a significant and complex challenge, as the entire world comes face-to-face with the Coronavirus pandemic. While this may form a new context for many nations and people, it is only the most recent of many pandemics that have challenges the human race throughout history. Each pandemic’s impact on health, livelihoods and other areas may have varied, however the all hold one defining similarity. They require a global response that prioritises human life and looks out for the vulnerable, similar to many aspects of natural disaster. As the AHA Centre explores its role within this new challenge, we take a look back over some of the key pandemics faced throughout history – and particularly in recent times.
Black Death / Bubonic Plague (1347-1351)
The bubonic plague is famous for its spread during a time that sea travel and ports were major links between countries and continents. Thought to have spread through rats and fleas, the plague (or Black Death as its more commonly known), moved across Europe, Africa and Asia killing anywhere between 75 to 200 million people over a number of years.
Smallpox (1520-1980)
The smallpox pandemic had a significant impact on native populations across the American continent, brought and spread by conquerors, adventurers and settlers into new and foreign lands. In the 1500’s the Aztecs experienced significant decimation, while it is also estimated that the disease killed 90% of native Americans in general. By the 1800’s the disease was still prevalent, and was killing around 400,000 people per year in Europe. As a result, the first ever vaccine created was to deal with smallpox, with its eradication finally complete by 1980.
Spanish Flu (1918-1919)
The smallpox pandemic had a significant impact on native populations across the American continent, brought and spread by conquerors, adventurers and settlers into new and foreign lands. In the 1500’s the Aztecs experienced significant decimation, while it is also estimated that the disease killed 90% of native Americans in general. By the 1800’s the disease was still prevalent, and was killing around 400,000 people per year in Europe. As a result, the first ever vaccine created was to deal with smallpox, with its eradication finally complete by 1980.
Asian Flu (1957-1958)
The smallpox pandemic had a significant impact on native populations across the American continent, brought and spread by conquerors, adventurers and settlers into new and foreign lands. In the 1500’s the Aztecs experienced significant decimation, while it is also estimated that the disease killed 90% of native Americans in general. By the 1800’s the disease was still prevalent, and was killing around 400,000 people per year in Europe. As a result, the first ever vaccine created was to deal with smallpox, with its eradication finally complete by 1980.
Hong Kong Flu (1968-1970)
Ten years after the Asian Flu came the Hong Kong Flu, with the initial outbreak in Hong Kong quickly moving into Singapore and Vietnam. Within a few months cases were detected across Asia, the Middle East, Europe, Australia and the United States, resulting in the deaths of over a million people worldwide. Even with a low death rate of around 0.5%, the pandemic did take the lives of around 500,000 people in Hong Kong itself, which was around 15% of the city’s population during the late 1960’s.
HIV AIDS (1981-Present)
HIV AIDS first appeared in Africa during 1976, and has gone on to form one of humankind’s greatest pandemic challenges for many decades. The disease has killed more than 36 million people since 1981, and has infected an estimated 5% of the total sub-Saharan African population. While awareness and treatments have grown and improved, and deaths and sickness have decreased with medicinal improvements, there is still no vaccine for the blood and sexually-transmitted disease, and it continues to be transmitted across the world.
Swine Flu (2009-2010)
The second pandemic from the H1N1 virus (the first being the Spanish Flu), Swine Flu resulted from a mix of flu strains during previous years. Killing a relatively smaller amount of people in comparison to other pandemics (200,000 deaths), there are studies that approximate the infection of between 700 million to 1.4 billion people across the world – which equates to up to 20% of the overall population at the time.
Ebola (2014-2016)
Having gone through a number of outbreaks since it was first discovered in 1976, Ebola became a serious pandemic in West Africa during 2014-2016. Spreading through contact with body fluids from humans and animals, this extremely deadly disease kills anywhere between 25-90% of people it infects, with an average of 50% death rate since its discovery. A vaccine was approved in 2019, with the hope that such advances can completely eradicate the deadly disease that killed over 11,300 during the 2014-16 pandemic.
Written by : William Shea | Source : https://jmvh.org and The Conversation
- Published in Insight
Vol 59 – MONTHLY DISASTER REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
MONTHLY DISASTER REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
MARCH 2020 | DISASTER MONITORING & ANALYSIS
(DMA) UNIT, AHA CENTRE
GENERAL REVIEW OF MARCH 2020
The month of March ended the first quarter of 2020, with a small reduction (11%) of disaster occurrences when compared to the five-year average for the month, with a majority of the recorded disasters formed by flooding events. The number of people affected remained similar to the March average, with a substantial amount due to the storms that occurred in Viet Nam during the first and third weeks of the month, as well as from multiple localised flood events and landslides in Indonesia. While impact numbers remained steady, the was a significant decrease in numbers of displaced persons – which was measured at a 63% decrease compared to the five-year average. On the other hand, damaged house statistics rose to over 10 times the five-year average. This overwhelming increase can be attributed again to the storms and flooding in Indonesia and Viet Nam. Human casualties also measured only 27.27% of the five-year average, with a number of deaths caused by storms in the northeastern provinces of Thailand, where lightning strikes took the lives of three individuals. Additionally, week-long rains, thunderstorms and tornadoes in in the northern provinces of Viet Nam also caused a number of fatalities. Substantial decreases to missing and injured persons were also recorded for the month. According to the Climate Forecast System (CFS) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), average precipitation values for the month of March 2020 showed a 50 to 100 millimetre increase across northeastern parts of Thailand, northern parts of Viet Nam, and the islands of Java, Sulawesi and Kalimantan in Indonesia. This increase potentially stands as a key cause of the significant increases to affected people and damaged houses. Such figures also highlight the perennial problem flooding in Indonesia, as well as the importance of the availability and accessibility of early warning information. The significant amounts of damaged houses also highlights the importance of climate change-adaptive and resilient structures.
Related to geophysical activity, 26 earthquakes of magnitudes greater than or equal to 5.0M were recorded for the month of March 2020. Contrary to the first two months of the year that saw no significant earthquake events reported, the month of March saw one earthquake that resulted in a minor disaster event in Indonesia. The earthquake registered a magnitude of 4.9M, but was enough to rock the western parts of Java causing 3 injuries and damage to 202 houses. No tsunami warning was issued by BMKG as the epicenter was located underneath land, with the earthquake recorded on a strike-slip fault where two tectonic plates moved in parallel but opposite directions to one another.
SEASONAL OUTLOOK
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), inter-monsoon conditions (that typically span from April until May) are expected over the region, which is described as the transition between the Northeast and Southwest Monsoons. This inter-monsoon condition is expected to gradually transition to the Southwest Monsoon around the end of May or early June. The inter-monsoon conditions are characterised by increased occurrence of scattered rain showers in the region, higher probabilities of thunderstorms, and intensification of lightning activity. Despite the expected inter-monsoon conditions for the period of April to June 2020, the ASMC expects below-normal rainfall in ASEAN regionals areas north of the equator. This should bring about warmer-than-normal conditions for Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, and the northern Sumatra and Kalimantan islands of Indonesia. While the amount of forecasted rainfall may not be alarming, the region should still be cautious for thunderstorms, lightning activity, and increased occurrence of scattered rain showers that are characteristic of inter-monsoon conditions. Increased exposure to, and occurrence of, localised rainfall may still cause flooding and rain-induced landslides.
With warmer and drier conditions predicted in the Mekong sub-region, hotspot activities are expected to remain elevated and the prevailing haze is likely to persist despite the inter-monsoon conditions. Hotspot activities are expected to remain subdued with localised hotspot activities and haze emerging occasionally. Towards June, prevailing winds change in direction from northeast to southwest, which is known as the Southwest Monsoon season, itself characterised by the direction of winds from sea to land. These winds are known to carry more moisture, coming from the sea, and causing more rain.
Data Sources: ASEAN Disaster Information Network, ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre
Written by : Keith Landicho and Lawrence Anthony Dimailig
DISCLAIMER
Disclaimer: AHA Centre’s estimation is based on data and information shared by National Disaster Management Organisations (NDMOs) and other relevant agencies from ASEAN Member States, international organisations and news agencies. Further information on each recorded-significant disaster, description and detail of data and information are available at: http://adinet.ahacentre.org/reports.
- Published in Monthly Disaster Outlook
Vol 59 – IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON THE AHA CENTRE: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON THE AHA CENTRE:
CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is having an effect on everyone. By the end of March 2020, the number of global cases has reached more than 50,000 per day. In Southeast Asia, although the case numbers remain relatively low, many countries have taken precautionary measures, such as limiting travel from countries that are heavily affected by the outbreak.
The AHA Centre has also been heavily affected by the pandemic, although fortunately no staff has been infected by the virus so far. However, as a regional organisation, many of the AHA Centre’s activities include travel and engagements across the region. Therefore, travel restrictions have caused the Centre to postpone or cancel some programmes and events that has been planned. Some activities being postponed for 2020 include batch 7 of the ACE Programme, ASEAN-ERAT trainings, and the ASEAN Regional Disaster Emergency Response Simulation Exercise (ARDEX).
Alongside this, the Government of Indonesia (the host of the AHA Centre’s office) implemented social distancing measures on March 15th, as part of the efforts to contain the spread of the virus. These included requests for all businesses and organisations to implement work-from-home conditions, to which the AHA Centre responded immediately by initiating work-from-home arrangements to ensure the health and well-being of staff and the wider community.
CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
The AHA Centre faces a significant challenge in adapting to this ‘new normal’. This includes significant re-alignment in working approaches as staff switch from office-based to home-based environments. As an organisation that is very reliant to collaboration among staff as well as with ASEAN Member States and partners, the challenge lies in finding the best online working method that accommodates the collaborative nature of the work.
There are, however, two sides to any disaster, even in situations such as the pandemic. The Centre has identified an opportunity to realise a long-standing vision of becoming a smart office that utilises various collaborative technological tools. Part of this vision is to apply near-to-zero waste and minimal utilisation no papers. However, the pandemic situation has forced the AHA Centre to make these necessary changes, as part of its overall adaptation to the new normal.
Adjustments have also included the utilisation of video conferencing tools for meetings, as well as other tools to facilitate sharing and collaboration. Additionally, the AHA Centre has also moved all of its administrative, financial and human resource processes fully online.
Some challenges still remain of course, including the reality that nothing can fully replace direct face-to-face interaction. However, the Centre aims to remain productive, while at the same time protecting staff’s health and well-being. While we hope for the end of the pandemic situation, we also appreciate that some of these changes and adjustments will continue, and that will be for the benefit of our work in the future.
Written by : Dipo Summa | Photo Credit : AHA Centre
- Published in Highlight