GENERAL REVIEW OF FEBRUARY 2020

The 21 disaster occurrences for the month of February 2020 was similar to the five-year average for the month (20). A majority of the recorded disasters were flood events in different regions across Indonesia, most of which occurred towards the end of February. A single flooding event in the Johor State in Malaysia was also recorded at the end of the month. Adding to this, four landslides were recorded to have occurred in Indonesia for this month, including in Bandung Regency in the second week, and three during the last week of the month in Tasikmalaya district, Bandongan district, and Magelang Regency. Based on this, significant differences related to five-year disaster impact averages were observed. This included a 95% increase in the number of affected people, more than double the amount of internally displaced people, and four times the number of damaged houses. There was, however, a 36% decrease in the number of casualties alongside no reports of injured and missing people.

According to reports by the Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), the presence of two tropical cyclones (TC) – TC Esther in Gulf of Carpentaria and TC Ferdinand in the Indian Ocean – influenced the heavy rainfall that caused flooding events. Accordingly, based on the Climate Forecast System (CFS) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), average precipitation in millimeters peaked twice for the month of February on the island of Java. The first peak occurred in the second week with the second at the end of the month, supporting the cause of the flooding that took place at the end of February. Additionally, based on the CFS (which assimilates ground, air, aircraft, and satellite observations) findings, maximum precipitation differences for the month of February 2020 compared to five-year average rainfall values reached an approximate increase of 100 millimetres.

Based on disaster comparisons, the number of flooding events are 13.33% higher than the five-year average. Despite this relatively low increase in numbers, there was a significant increase in figures related to impact of the disasters. The increase in the extent and severity of the impacts may be an indication of a changing climate. However, the efforts of Indonesia’s National Disaster Management Authority (BNPB), and measures implemented to curtail the impacts of disasters resulted in the decrease to numbers of casualties. Additionally, the dramatic increase in the number of damaged houses could further support the call for more climate change-adaptive and resilient structures in disaster-stricken regions.

SEASONAL OUTLOOK

According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), enhanced chances of below-normal rainfall or drier conditions are expected over northern parts of Sumatra, Kalimantan, and Sulawesi, Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Singapore, Malaysia, and the southern regions of Myanmar, Thailand, Viet Nam, and of the Philippines for the March-May 2020 season. For regions south of the equator, the ASMC predicts above-normal rainfall or wetter conditions. Temperature-wise, most parts of the ASEAN region are expected to continue experiencing warmer conditions for the March-May 2020 period.

Haze outlook for the ASEAN region during March-May 2020 is expected to show increased hotspot activities due to drier conditions. A deterioration of haze situation is displayed for the Northern Mekong sub-region, according to the ASMC. The onset of increased rainfall is foreseen to subdue hotspot activities and improve the haze situation in the region. Lastly, the haze situation in the southern ASEAN region is expected to remain subdued, but localised hotspots may emerge during the occasional dry weather.

Continent as predicted by the models.

Data Sources: ASEAN Disaster Information Network, ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre

Written by : Keith Landicho and Lawrence Anthony Dimailig

GENERAL REVIEW OF JANUARY 2020

A significant change in the number of disaster occurrences was observed for the month of January 2020, with a 56% decrease of all disasters in comparison to the previous five-year average, and a majority of registered disasters were flood events. All but one of the recorded disasters took place in Indonesia. There were, however, significant increases compared to five-year averages of affected people (13% increase), internally displaced people (86%), and damaged houses (8%), due primarily to high monsoon activity in the region, with winds exhibiting convergence patterns (leading to formation of clouds and eventually precipitation) according to the Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG). Overall, the number of occurrences decreased, but the disasters affected more people compared to the previous five-year averages.

There was also a significant increase in the number of casualties for the month of January, up 63% compared to the five-year average, with the number of injuries also increasing by 32%, despite the life-saving mechanisms of the ASEAN Member States being effectively put into place. Such increased disaster severity may be an indication of the effects of a changing climate. In terms of geophysical hazards, the phreatic eruption of the Taal Volcano in the Philippines on January 12 spewed ash across Metro Manila, and the Northern, Central, and Southern Luzon regions, causing widespread cancellations of classes, work, and flights, and significant losses for the agricultural sector (US$63 million). The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) issued an Alert Level 4 (out of five levels), or hazardous eruption possible within hours to days, due to the volcanic activity. On 26 January, decreased volcanic activities prompted PHIVOLCS to downgrade that alert level. Taal Volcano’s eruption contributed significantly to the number of displaced people in this month’s figures, with an estimated 459,300 people living within the volcano’s 14-kilometer danger zone.

SEASONAL OUTLOOK

The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) expects drier conditions for the month of February over Sumatra, Peninsular Malaysia and northern parts of Borneo and the Philippines. These conditions are expected to last until the end of March and extend to some parts of Thailand. However, wetter conditions are expected with increasing chances over the southeastern part of the maritime continent in the following months, which are expected to ease in the last week of March.

For temperature conditions, on one hand, the ASMC expects warmer conditions over much of the maritime continent and shall progressively affect parts of Mainland Southeast Asia in the last week of March. On the other hand, colder conditions are expected to occur and last until the third week of February over northeastern parts of the northern ASEAN region.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), characterised by an eastward spread of large regions of enhanced and suppressed tropical rainfall, is expected to be in Phase 7 of 8 towards the end of January 2020. This means the enhanced rainfall will continue to move eastward into the western Pacific and eventually dissipate in the central Pacific. There are signs of a weak MJO emerging in the Maritime Continent in mid-February, but is forecasted to weaken. This weak MJO is also forecasted to reemerge over the Indian Ocean towards the end of March. This development may contribute to wetter conditions in the Southern Maritime Continent as predicted by the models.

Data Sources: ASEAN Disaster Information Network, ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre

Written by : Keith Landicho and Lawrence Anthony Dimailig

GENERAL REVIEW OF DECEMBER 2019

December 2019 significantly shifted from the previous five-year average December disaster statistics, recording a higher number of occurrences, impact to population, and damage to houses, albeit with lower casualty rates. The number of disaster occurrences experienced a 61% increase compared to the previous five December periods, with flood events contributing the largest share. A majority of flooding events took place in Indonesia towards the end of the month when the country was experiencing strong impacts from the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Meanwhile, considerable deviations in the number of affected (168% increase from the five-year average) and displaced (187% increase from the five-year average) people and damaged houses (716% increase from the five-year average) were driven by Typhoons KAMMURI (equivalent to Category 4 hurricane at peak strength) and PHANFONE (equivalent to Category 2 hurricane at peak strength) hitting the Philippines within a three week timeframe. Combined, both typhoons are estimated to account for 79% of affected people figures, 55% of displaced people, and 97% of damaged houses reported in the last month of 2019.

On the other hand, there were notable decreases in casualty figures compared with the five-year average – with 60% decrease in dead, 30% decrease in injured, and 84% decrease in missing people. This suggests that in spite of extensive disaster impact this month, life-saving mechanisms in ASEAN Member States were effectively implemented. In terms of geophysical hazards, there were 24 recorded earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 and above, one of which was a magnitude 6.9 earthquake in the Southern Philippines, affecting hundreds of thousands of people, and contributing to more than a quarter of the displacement figures.

SEASONAL OUTLOOK

The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) expects the Northeast Monsoon to prevail over the region until late March to early April, before transitioning towards the inter-monsoon phase. Traditionally, the Northeast Monsoon results in a dry season in the northern ASEAN region, while the rainy season persists in the southern parts of the region. In terms of main weather and climate drivers in the region, both El Niño Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole systems are expected to be in neutral phase for the next few months, and there are signs of weakening Madden-Julian Oscillation over the coming weeks.

Above-average temperatures over most parts of the ASEAN region for the next few months is predicted by global weather and climate prediction models, with moderate to high probability of this happening. Alongside this, below-average rainfall is predicted over Myanmar and the Philippines, while there is a higher chance of above-normal rainfall around the Java Sea area and the eastern archipelago of Indonesia, which may result in flooding.

Data Sources: ASEAN Disaster Information Network, ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre

Written by : Lawrence Anthony Dimailig and Shahasrakiranna

GENERAL REVIEW OF NOVEMBER 2019

The number of disaster occurrences during November 2019 was only slightly above 50% of the previous five-year average. November is the usually the month that sees the beginning of the Northeast Monsoon, bringing more rains, especially to the southern part of the ASEAN region. However, this year the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has affected several parts of the region resulting in less rain. This is reflected by significant decreases in flooding events for the period – and the year in general – particularly in Indonesia.

The number of affected and displaced persons during the month of November also only reached about 15% and 26% compared to the previous five-year November average, while the number of damaged houses was also less than 20%. Of note is also that during the last five years, two major events (namely as Typhoon Hagupit in 2014 and Typhoon Damrey in 2017) affected more than 8 million people, and displaced more than 500,000. Most of the disasters that occurred in November 2019 were registered as minor to moderate, including Typhoon Nakri, which affected the Philippines and Viet Nam in early November, and several earthquakes in Indonesia, the Philippines, and the border of Lao PDR and Thailand. The overall decreased impact of disasters could be related to both the amount and scale of actual disasters, and also the national capacity of ASEAN Member States to respond internally.

SEASONAL OUTLOOK

According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), the transition to Northeast Monsoon season began in mid-November. During this period, the northern ASEAN region typically experiences dry conditions, while the southern ASEAN region experiences rainy weather. With a surge of cool air from the northern Asian landmass expected to blow toward the Equatorial Southeast Asia region, the Mekong sub-region, South China Sea, and the surrounding areas (including Peninsular Malaysia and parts of Sumatra) can expect cooler temperatures during the outlook period. In contrast, warm conditions are forecast over the Indonesian archipelago around the Java Sea region. There is a high likelihood of above-average temperatures over most parts of the region during the December 2019 until February 2020.

In terms of rainfall outlook, there are no clear trends for the December 2019 to February 2020 season, but there is an increased chance of below-average rainfall over most parts of the region south of the equator who may experience drier-than-normal conditions in December 2019. Wetter conditions are expected over the western Maritime Continent, including central Sumatra, Peninsular Malaysia, Singapore and parts of western Borneo. Likewise, in December 2019, the Mekong sub-region and the eastern Indonesian archipelago can expect a gradual increase in hotspot activities as the dry season sets in. Based on past trends, an escalation of hotspot activities can be expected in late January and February, particularly over Thailand and Cambodia. Hotspot activities in the southern ASEAN region are expected to remain generally subdued, however isolated hotspots may emerge in Sumatra, Kalimantan and Malaysia during periods of dry weather, especially in February. Generally, above-average temperatures are likely over most parts of Southeast Asia from December 2019 to February 2020. Meanwhile, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) monitoring system remains in “Neutral” state, and model outlooks from international centres are predicting sea surface temperature anomalies to remain at this status until early 2020.

Data Sources: ASEAN Disaster Information Network, ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre

Written by : Lawrence Anthony Dimailig and Shahasrakiranna