Vol 70 – MONTHLY DISASTER REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
MONTHLY DISASTER REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
FEBRUARY 2021 | DISASTER MONITORING & ANALYSIS
(DMA) UNIT, AHA CENTRE
GENERAL REVIEW OF FEBRUARY 2021
February 2021 was characterised by a significantly higher number of disaster occurrences in comparison to the average from February during the previous five years – with a six-fold increase overall. In-line with this increase, statistics show significantly higher comparative numbers of affected people (almost 6 times the February five-year average), internally displaced (7 ½ times), damaged houses (36 times), casualties (2 ½ times), and missing persons (7 times). A majority of recorded disasters in February occurred in Indonesia, over 70% of which were floods. These increases can be largely attributed to the Northeast Monsoon conditions that brought wetter conditions to Indonesia (Java Island and regions around it), causing flooding, rain-induced landslides and heavy winds. The effects of a frontal system’s tail end were also evident in eastern parts of the Philippines, which was also subject to Tropical Storm DUJUAN that affected 272,500 people living in the area. La Niña conditions are still present in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and continue to be associated with wetter conditions for Southeast Asia.
A total of 32 significant earthquakes (M≥5.0) were reported in the region during February 2021, although they caused limited damages to populations and infrastructure. Volcanic activity was reported for numerous Alert Level III volcanoes – including Mount Merapi, Sinabung, Semeru, and Karangetang in Indonesia – all of which remain under close monitoring. Recent volcanic activity was also reported for Ibu, Dukono, and Raung mountains in Indonesia, and Taal in the Philippines, but there were no significant related damages.
SEASONAL OUTLOOK
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), the prevailing Northeast Monsoon conditions are expected to continue into March 2021. During this period, the prevailing northeasterly or easterly winds over the northern ASEAN region could strengthen at times due to the influence of high pressure systems moving eastwards over continental Asia. In addition to the traditional dry season over the northern ASEAN region, areas in the equatorial parts of the southern ASEAN region could occasionally experience dry and windy conditions during March, as they are in the dry phase of the Northeast Monsoon. Inter-monsoon conditions are expected to develop in April and continue into May 2021. The prevailing winds across the ASEAN region are expected to be light and variable, and an increase in shower activities is forecast for the ASEAN region during this period.
For the March to May 2021 period, models predict above-normal rainfall over much of the ASEAN region north of the equator. La Niña conditions are present over the tropical Pacific Ocean, with climate models predicting La Niña conditions to weaken over the boreal spring (March – June). La Niña conditions are typically associated with wetter-than-normal conditions over the Southeast Asia region. While below-average rainfall is expected for much of Indonesia’s Sumatra, Borneo and Sulawesi islands for March – May, these areas tend to be less influenced by La Niña conditions at this time of year. Warmer-than-average temperatures are expected over the equatorial region for the period, with much of mainland Southeast Asia, except Myanmar, experiencing below to near-average temperatures.
Despite the slight chance of above-normal rainfall outlook over the Mekong sub-region in March-May 2021, dry conditions are expected to persist, as it is still the traditional dry season for the Mekong sub-region. During this period, the hotspot situation and risk of transboundary haze occurrence in the sub-region are likely to remain elevated. The gradual return of wet weather conditions from April 2021 onwards is expected to bring some respite to elevated hotspot and haze occurrences over parts of the sub-region. In the southern ASEAN region, hotspot activities should generally subdued during this outlook period. However, during periods of drier weather, there may be brief occurrences of isolated hotspots with localised smoke plumes, in particular over parts of the equatorial region where below-normal rainfall is forecast.
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general and based on the latest runs from models provided by the SEA RCC-Network LRF node. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN Member States’ National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.
Sources : ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet), ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), ASEAN Disaster Monitoring and Response System (DMRS), Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB), Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG), Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG), National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), Philippine Institute for Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS), National Disaster Management Agency – Malaysia (NADMA), Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation – Thailand (DDPM), Viet Nam Disaster Management Authority (VNDMA)
Written by : Keith Paolo Landicho, Sadhu Zukhruf Janottama, Lawrence Anthony Dimailig
DISCLAIMER
Disclaimer from ASMC: The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general and based on the latest runs from models provided by the SEA RCC-Network LRF node. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN Member States’ National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.
- Published in Monthly Disaster Outlook
Vol 70 – DISTRIBUTION OF TEMASEK FOUNDATION’S REUSABLE FACE MASKS: MORE MASKS FOR MORE COMMUNITIES
DISTRIBUTION OF TEMASEK FOUNDATION’S REUSABLE FACE MASKS:
MORE MASKS FOR MORE COMMUNITIES
The distribution of the Temasek Foundation’s reusable face masks – as covered in Volume 68 of the Column – has continued to reach many more recipients, including communities affected by the recent earthquake in West Sulawesi of Indonesia. The Indonesian Red Cross (Palang Merah Indonesia – PMI) distributed the face masks in Mamuju and Majene – the two most affected areas in West Sulawesi – during the month of February 2021. Other local non-government organisations (NGOs) also have helped distribute the masks to the wider recipients.
Through the AHA Centre, Singapore’s Temasek Foundation donated 1.5 million reusable face masks at the end of 2020 to support the ongoing COVID-19 response in the region. The masks have been distributed to ASEAN Member States, ASEAN centres, entities related to ASEAN, and the PMI. These organisations then engage local non-profit organisations to deliver masks to ASEAN communities. According to PMI, the communities of West Sulawesi are increasingly vulnerable and at high risk of contracting COVID-19 due to the disaster situation. Therefore, distributing face masks to these communities can help prevent the spread of the virus. PMI itself received 512,000 face masks that have been distributed to several locations in Indonesia, including West Sulawesi.
As well as the PMI, Diberi Untuk Memberi (Given to Give) – a Jakarta-based non-profit organisation –also delivered face masks to communities in Mamuju. They had also previously been distributing masks to food sellers, local medical centres, and the general community in Jakarta.
Distribution to communities was also undertaken by the ASEAN Insurance Council in Tangerang Selatan, Banten. The Mayor of Tangerang Selatan City, Mr Benyamin Davnie, showed his appreciation for the ASEAN Insurance Council’s efforts, hoping that the spread of the virus could be reduced by having more people wearing face masks.
The AHA Centre staff have also voluntarily helped distribute the face masks to their networks. For example, Ms Yuni Wahyuningtyas, the AHA Centre Project Development Officer, channelled distribution to Canari Foundation, a local non-profit organisation. “I have several networks, especially local non-profit organisations. I think it’s good to also donate the face masks to these organisations so that they will reach the wider community”, she explained.
Ms Adelina Kamal, the Executive Director of the AHA Centre, highlighted her appreciation of Temasek Foundation’s support to the region’s fight against the pandemic, as well as all parties who have helped distribute the face masks.
“This cooperation between Temasek Foundation and AHA Centre reflects our commitment to fight hand-in-hand against the pandemic in the region”
“It’s also a pleasure knowing that this activity has engaged more local-based organisations and grass-root communities”,
– Adelina Kamal
Written by : Moch Syifa | Photo credit: ASEAN Insurance Council, Diberi untuk Memberi, Palang Merah Indonesia (PMI).
- Published in Highlight
- 1
- 2