MONTHLY DISASTER REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
JULY 2021 | DISASTER MONITORING & ANALYSIS
(DMA) UNIT, AHA CENTRE
GENERAL REVIEW OF JULY 2021
For the month of July 2021, a total of 113 disasters were reported. The ASEAN Member States that were affected were Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam. Most of the disasters (63.72%) occurred in Indonesia but these only comprised 13.32% of the total number of affected people for the month. The Philippines comprised 16.81% of the disasters for July but comprised 83.3% of the total number of affected people, largely due to the effects of the Southwest Monsoon with one instance being enhanced by Tropical Cyclone IN-FA. The share of disaster-affected people for other ASEAN Member States was as follows: (1) Cambodia-0.01%, (2) Lao PDR-0.3%, (3) Malaysia-0.02%, (4) Myanmar-2.74%, (5) Thailand-0.15% and (5) Viet Nam-0.14%. July 2021 saw disasters affecting 265 per 100,000 people* and displacing 57 per 100,000 people* in the region. July 2021 also accounted for 16.64% of the total disasters and almost half (49.76%) of damage costs reported so far in the current year.
Most of the disasters that occurred in July 2021 were floods (57.52%) and this is consistent with July of the previous year and July on a five-year average (2016-2020). July 2021 saw hydrometeorological disasters (floods, rain-induced landslides, storms and winds) dominating the disasters that affected the region for the month (79.58%). The reported disasters in the region for July 2021 in comparison with the historical data (average for June 2016-2020) indicates that there were 5.94x more reported disasters; 5.56x fewer people affected; 18.73x more people displaced; 7.73x more houses affected to some extent; 5.77x fewer lives lost; 45.5x fewer people suffering injuries; and lastly, 1.86x more people reported missing.
Geophysically, 38 significant earthquakes (Magnitude ≥ 5.0) were reported by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG), the Philippine Institute for Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS), and Myanmar’s Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH). On 1 July 2021, Mount Taal in the Philippines was raised to Alert Level 3 due to the volcano generating a dark phreatomagmatic plume 1 kilometre high (with no accompanying volcanic earthquake). The eruption of Mount Taal affected 22,433 people and caused the evacuation of 13,027 from the high-risk barangays of Agoncillo and Laurel in Batangas Province. Mount Taal is currently placed under Alert Level 2 (as of 23 July 2021). Volcanoes in Indonesia and the Philippines have shown recent activity but have not resulted in significant events (except for Mount Taal) and are continuously being monitored.
*Computed based on 2020 population data from worldometers.com
ANALYSIS
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), during July 2021, rainfall in the region was a mix of lower to more than the average values from 2001-2020.(Figure 1.a). Wetter conditions (positive anomalies from average values from 2001-2020) were detected over the coastal parts of southern Myanmar, southern Cambodia, northwestern Philippines, as well as the Maluku Islands for both satellite-derived rainfall estimates datasets (GSMaP-NRT and CMORPH-Blended). Coincidentally, these were the areas where disasters were reported for July 2021 with southern Myanmar and Northwestern Philippines reportedly resulting from the effects of the Southwest Monsoon. The two datasets (GSMaP-NRT and CMORPH-Blended) were also in agreement that the largest negative anomalies (drier conditions) were over the central Philippines. However, there were some discrepancies over the western and central Maritime Continent, where CMORPH-Blended recorded drier conditions than GSMaP-NRT.
SPOTLIGHT
According to the situational report from the Philippines’ National Disaster Risk Reduction Management Council, since 28 July 2021 the Southwest Monsoon has brought intense rains to multiple regions of the Philippines and has since affected 312,605 families (1,222,241 persons) from 1,117 barangays. Related incidents to the Southwest Monsoon that impacted multiple regions in the Philippines were floods, rain-induced landslides, a mudslide, an overflowing spillway and swollen rivers. 129 roads and three bridges were affected and 12 roads and one bridge remain impassable. 1,723 houses have reportedly been damaged. The estimated cost of damage to agriculture is reported to be around USD 4,686,168.51 incurred in Regions I, III, VIII, IX and CAR. With regard to infrastructure, an estimated USD 721,025.94 worth of damage has been reported. A total of 40 cities/municipalities were declared under a State of Calamity. Assistance (in the forms of financial, family food packs, other food items, family kits, hygiene kits, sleeping kits, kitchen kits, medical assistance, non-food items) worth USD 204,497.13 have been provided to victims in Regions I, III, VI, CAR and MIMAROPA.
SEASONAL OUTLOOK
With the monsoon rain band located north of the equator in August 2021, Southwest Monsoon conditions are likely to persist over the ASEAN region. Climatologically, the Southwest Monsoon is characterised by rainy conditions in the northern ASEAN region and dry weather in the southern ASEAN region. During the August to October period, the prevailing winds in the ASEAN region are from the southeast or southwest.
For the August to October 2021 period, there is an increased chance of above-normal rainfall for much of the Maritime Continent. ENSO-neutral conditions are forecast to continue for the next three months. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in the negative phase and models are forecasting the negative IOD to also remain for the next three months. A negative IOD tends to bring above-average rainfall for the southern ASEAN region for this time of the year. Warmer-than-usual temperatures are expected for most of the ASEAN region except for Borneo and southern Sumatra where near- to above-normal temperatures are predicted.
Sources: ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet), ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), ASEAN Disaster Monitoring and Response System (DMRS), Cambodia National Committee on Disaster Management (NCDM), Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB), Malaysia Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA), Myanmar Department of Disaster Management (DDM), National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), Thailand Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM), Viet Nam Disaster Management Authority (VNDMA), Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG), Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG), Philippine Institute for Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS)
Written by : Keith Paolo Landicho, Sadhu Zukhruf Janottama, Lawrence Anthony Dimailig
DISCLAIMER
The AHA Centre’s estimation is based on data and information shared by National Disaster Management Organisations (NDMOs) and other relevant agencies from ASEAN Member States, international organisations, and news agencies. Further information on each recorded significant disaster, description, and detail of data and information are available at: http://adinet.ahacentre.org/reports.
STRENGTHENING DISASTER-RESPONSE CAPACITY OF NDMOs AMID PANDEMIC
Responding to disasters during the COVID-19 pandemic has become more complicated as National Disaster Management Organisations (NDMOs) have had to provide assistance as well as dealing with the pandemic at the same time. To maintain safety standards during any disaster response in Viet Nam this year, the Viet Nam National Disaster Authority (VNDMA) has handed over medical equipment to five Ministerial Standing Offices for Disaster Prevention.
The handover ceremony was held on 20 July 2021 at the Standing Office of the National Steering Committee for Natural Disaster Prevention and Control. The support items, funded by Direct Relief through the AHA Centre, comprised of medical equipment, including body thermal scanner systems, and medical face masks. These items will play a significant role in supporting the VNDMA and its disaster-prevention offices during any disaster response amidst the pandemic.
Viet Nam, like many countries within the region, is prone to disasters, especially in the second half of the year. Tropical storms, floods and landslides are the most frequent types of disaster and often simultaneously occur in the country, causing loss of life and property. Toward the end of 2020, Viet Nam was hit by Tropical Storms LINFA and NANGKA, which affected more than 800,000 people, with some 66,500 people forced to evacuate.
However, when such disasters occur during the COVID-19 pandemic, the response is more complicated and challenging as the country is still combating the pandemic while responding to the disaster. This means that a country needs to double the resources and this puts more pressure on the local authorities already facing the pandemic crisis. A disaster might well occur in an area where COVID-19 case rates are high, therefore, the disaster response must incorporate health protocols to ensure there are no new clusters of COVID-19 cases in temporary shelters.
The VNDMA has mitigated the above situations and any possible risks during its disaster responses. Understanding the risks faced by officials, it is crucial to be prepared and ready by providing the ministerial-level agencies with medical equipment and face masks during their responses to disasters.
The AHA Centre is grateful for the support items funded by Direct Relief to be distributed to the VNDMA. It is essential that disaster management agencies in the region have the medical equipment to ensure safety during their responses in the pandemic.
“It is very challenging for us now to respond to disasters while also combating the COVID-19 pandemic. The way we respond to disasters in this current pandemic needs to be adjusted while maintaining agility in our disaster responses”
This is not the first time that the AHA Centre has mobilised items in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2020, the AHA Centre was mandated by the Governing Board to mobilise relief items from the DELSA Regional Stockpile in Subang, Malaysia; the DELSA Satellite Warehouse in Chainat, Thailand; and the DELSA Satellite Warehouse in Camp Aguinaldo, the Philippines, to support the ongoing COVID-19 responses in Cambodia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand. The AHA Centre has also distributed 1.5 million reusable face masks, donated by Singapore’s Temasek Foundation, to the ASEAN Member States, ASEAN Centres, entities related to ASEAN and the Indonesian Red Cross (Palang Merah Indonesia – PMI).
Written by : Moch Syifa, Kiran M. Husni | Photo Credit: AHA Centre
EU HIGH REPRESENTATIVE
H.E. JOSEP BORRELL
VISITED THE AHA CENTRE TO DEEPEN RELATIONS BETWEEN THE TWO REGIONS IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT
In the first visit by a VVIP after more than a year of working from home, on 3 June 2021 the AHA Centre had the honour of welcoming High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy/Vice-President of the Commission, European Union (EU) H.E. Mr. Josep Borrell.
Arriving at the AHA Centre, Mr. Borrell was welcomed by Executive Director of the AHA Centre Ms. Adelina Kamal, Deputy Executive Director Mr. Arnel Capili, and staff of the AHA Centre. During his visit, Mr. Borrell had the opportunity to see how the AHA Centre’s Emergency Operations Centre (EOC) works during an emergency response. Other important information about the AHA Centre’s responses and activities in disaster management in the ASEAN region was also presented.
Mr. Borrell stated that his visit to the AHA Centre was important and informative as he had the opportunity to listen to the presentation of the valuable work that was done there. “The EU continues to provide capacity building to [the] AHA [Centre] and civil protection and emergency humanitarian assistance when disasters strike,” he said after the visit.
According to him, ASEAN and the EU share the same commitment to rules-based multilateralism. This is one of the reasons why he needed to visit ASEAN in the midst of the current pandemic.
“ASEAN is the nucleus around which inclusive forms of regional cooperation are built. Regional integration is a way to safeguard our respective ‘strategic autonomy’ for both of us,” H.E. Mr. Josep Borrell
stated in his official statement published by the EU website (https://eeas.europa.eu/)
Ms. Adelina stressed the significance of Mr. Borrell’s visit to the AHA Centre. Not only because it was the first VVIP visit hosted by the AHA Centre after more than one year working from home, but also because the EU is one of the biggest supporters of the AHA Centre through the Integrated Programme in Enhancing the Capacity of the AHA Centre and ASEAN Emergency Response Mechanisms (EU SAHA) project. “EU support shaped the AHA Centre in our formative years. We look forward to working with the EU in our transformative years to come,” said Ms. Adelina.
The 45-minute visit was also attended by Ambassador of the EU to ASEAN H.E. Mr. Igor Driesmans; Mr. Gunnar Wiegand, Managing Director for Asia Pacific, European External Action Service (EEAS); Mr. Nereo Penalver Garcia, Cabinet Member of the HRVP, EEAS; and Mr. Fabian Breuer, Senior Communication Advisor to HRVP, EEAS. During the visit, Mr. Borrell also discussed several important issues, including how to strengthen the partnership between the EU and the AHA Centre in disaster management and the humanitarian assistance sector.
Written by : Moch Syifa | Photo Credit : AHA Centre & europa.eu
AHA CENTRE HAD ITS FIVE-YEAR PLAN ADOPTED BY THE GOVERNING BOARD
Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the 14th Meeting of the Governing Board of the AHA Centre was held online on 8 June, 2021. Apart from the regular progress update, this Governing Board meeting marked four important milestones for the Centre. These were the launch of the 2020 AHA Centre Annual Report, adoption of the 2021-2025 AHA Centre Work Plan, and the completion of the ASEAN Village in Palu.
One significant achievement reported to the Governing Board was the completion of the ASEAN Village under the recovery project for the triple disasters that occurred in 2018 in Palu, Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. The project has successfully constructed 100 permanent houses, an auxiliary community health centre (Puskesmas Pembantu) and a mosque. The ASEAN Village was financially supported by the people and Government of Brunei Darussalam, the Government of the Philippines, the Government of Australia and Direct Relief. The official handover of the village to the local administration of Palu City was conducted on 23 June, 2021 using a hybrid mode. Along with the handover, the Centre also notified the Governing Board of an upcoming publication titled “New Homes of Opportunities: Lessons Learnt on the ASEAN Recovery Support of the Central Sulawesi’s 2018 Disasters” that captures the good practices and lessons learned from the recovery project in Palu.
In line with usual practice, the AHA Centre released its Annual Report for 2020, which captured its achievements and activities in 2020 during the meeting. The 2020 Annual Report was released in full digital format. The Centre now intends to produce its publications in digital form in consideration of its ecological footprint, to reach a wider audience and to enhance the audience learning experience. The Annual Report also serves as a one-stop information location to view all activities of the AHA Centre in 2020. The clickable hyperlinks in the report will lead the reader to the various publications and knowledge platforms the AHA Centre produced in 2020, including the AHA Centre’s webinars made available on the AHA Centre’s YouTube channel.
On the same occasion, the Governing Board also adopted the 2021-2025 AHA Centre Work Plan. The Work Plan was developed in line with the 2021-2025 AADMER Work Programme (AWP) by translating the outcomes and outputs assigned to the AHA Centre into groups of activities. The AHA Centre highlighted that the Work Plan contains six priority areas, with the first five priorities of the AHA Centre Work Plan based on the five priority programmes of the 2021-2025 AWP, while one additional priority is focusing on the corporate governance of the AHA Centre. The document also elaborates the monitoring and data collection plan to support implementation of the Work Plan. The AHA Centre monitoring and learning process is designed to be in line with the AWP monitoring and evaluation system, which will be carried out by the ASEAN Secretariat.
In the 14th Governing Board Meeting, the Centre presented its plan for the upcoming anniversary commemoration to mark the AHA Centre’s 10 years of work in disaster management in the region. This year’s theme is ‘A Decade of Action: From Inception to Transformation’.
Written by: Merry Rismayani, Caroline Widagdo | Photo : AHA Centre