MONTHLY DISASTER REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
MAY 2021 | DISASTER MONITORING & ANALYSIS
(DMA) UNIT, AHA CENTRE
GENERAL REVIEW OF MAY 2021
For the month of May 2021, a total of 105 disasters were reported. The ASEAN Member States that were affected were Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, and Thailand. A majority of the disasters (64.76%) occurred in Indonesia, which also saw 69.5% of the total number of affected people for the month (Cambodia – 2.1%, Malaysia – 0.7%, Myanmar – <0.1%, Philippines – 26.1%, Thailand – 1.5%). May 2021 saw disasters affecting 60 per 100,000 people* and displacing 4 per 100,000 people* in the region. May 2021 also accounted for roughly one-fifth (20.5%) of the total disasters reported so far in the current year.
The majority of the disasters that occurred in May 2021 were floods (58%) and this is consistent with May of the previous year and May on a five-year average (2016-2020). Flood victims comprised a little over three-quarters (77%) of the total number of affected people. The reported disasters in the region for May 2021 in comparison with the historical data (average for May 2016-2020) indicates that there were 5.5 time more reported disasters; almost 5 times more people affected; almost 3 times more people displaced; twice as many houses affected to some extent; 32 times fewer lives lost; 5 times fewer people suffering injuries; and lastly, 100 times fewer people missing.
Geophysically, 28 significant earthquakes (Magnitude ≥ 5.0) were reported by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG) and the Philippine Institute for Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). A Magnitude 6.2 earthquake (later downgraded to M5.9) that occurred 57 km southeast of Blitar in East Java in week 20 caused injuries to two individuals, affected 6,200 persons, and caused damage to thousands of houses, and hundreds of public facilities. Volcanoes in Indonesia and the Philippines have shown recent activity but they have not resulted in significant events and are continuously being monitored.
*Computed based on 2020 population data from worldometers.com
ANALYSIS
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), during May 2021, the largest positive anomalies (wetter conditions) were detected in southern Philippines due to Tropical Depression 03W (local name: Crising). Despite below-average rainfall over the southern Maritime Continent, over half of all recorded disasters that were apparently hydrological in nature (flooding and severe local storms) were reported across Indonesia. A mixture of below and above-average rainfall was observed in Mainland Southeast Asia.
SPOTLIGHT
Over the tropical Pacific Ocean, La Niña conditions declined and returned to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions by the beginning of June. The sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean continued to warm, with atmospheric indicators (cloudiness and wind anomalies) remaining consistent with the ENSO-neutral conditions. ENSO-neutral conditions are neither El Niño (warming of ocean surface, reduced rainfall in Indonesia) nor La Niña (cooling of ocean surface, increased rainfall in Indonesia), which are the extreme phases of the ENSO cycle.
SEASONAL OUTLOOK
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), through May 2021, the monsoon rain band continued to move northwards over the northern ASEAN region. Concurrently, the prevailing winds over most of the southern ASEAN region strengthened to blow mainly from the southeast or southwest, in line with the transition to Southwest Monsoon conditions. With a strengthening of the prevailing winds, Southwest Monsoon conditions are expected to become fully established in June 2021. The Southwest Monsoon season is likely to extend through the June–August period and is the traditional dry season for the southern ASEAN region, characterised by persistent dry conditions over the region. For the northern ASEAN region, the Southwest Monsoon season is the traditional rainy season.
For the June to August 2021 period, models predict a small increase in chance of above-normal rainfall over parts of the southwestern Maritime Continent. Elsewhere, there is no consistent prediction for the rainfall outlook between the models consulted for much of the region. The La Niña event is nearing its end and most ENSO indicators are generally consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions. For July and August, ENSO-neutral conditions are forecast.
Warmer-than-usual temperatures are expected for much of the ASEAN region, with higher confidence over the Maritime Continent.
As the southern ASEAN region enters the traditional dry season, increased hotspot activities and the development of smoke plumes are likely in fire-prone parts of the region. In the coming months, it is expected that the hotspot and smoke haze situation may deteriorate in parts of the southern ASEAN region that experience prolonged dry conditions.
Sources: ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet), ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), ASEAN Disaster Monitoring and Response System (DMRS), Cambodia National Committee on Disaster Management (NCDM), Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB), Malaysia Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA), Myanmar Department of Disaster Management (DDM), National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), Thailand Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM), Viet Nam Disaster Management Authority (VNDMA), Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG), Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG), Philippine Institute for Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS)
Written by : Keith Paolo Landicho, Sadhu Zukhruf Janottama, Lawrence Anthony Dimailig
DISCLAIMER
The AHA Centre’s estimation is based on data and information shared by National Disaster Management Organisations (NDMOs) and other relevant agencies from ASEAN Member States, international organisations, and news agencies. Further information on each recorded significant disaster, description, and detail of data and information are available at: http://adinet.ahacentre.org/reports.
HELiX 2021
SOLUTIONS TO ADDRESS GAPS IN LOGISTICS CAPACITIES
It is heartening and exciting that even with the pandemic complicating travel and communications everywhere, the spirit of cooperation and eagerness for learning and exchange remains undimmed worldwide. In this spirit and with the aim of capturing new and emerging innovations in the field of humanitarian logistics, provoking insights and constructive discussions, as well as being a convergence between innovators and potential users, the first Humanitarian Emergency Logistics and Innovation Expo (HELiX) was held virtually from 24 to 25 May 2021.
The event was successfully organised by the AHA Centre in cooperation with the Viet Nam Disaster Management Authority (VNDMA). HELiX, the first such event held by the AHA Centre, is a testament to the flexibility and resilience of the AHA Centre and VNDMA staff who worked diligently to prepare the expo, especially as the pandemic necessitated its adaptation into an online setting. HELiX is also aimed at capturing new and emerging innovations in the field of humanitarian logistics, provoking insights and constructive discussions as well as to be a convergence between innovators and potential users. Furthermore, HELiX was a welcome step, in the AHA Centre’s 10th anniversary year, in its journey towards becoming the premier regional disaster response authority in the region.
Executive Director of the Logistics Institute Asia-Pacific Dr. Robert de Souza, concluded his opening keynote speech on the Futures of Humanitarian Logistics by wishing HELiX success, noting that “[HELiX] brings all of us together to solve the problems that need to be solved, and to focus upon supply chain management, which was understated before, but is now brought to the fore.”
Supporting the points made in the earlier keynote speech, Executive Director of the AHA Centre Ms. Adelina Kamal emphasised during her introduction to the event the importance of a true desire to solve problems and to fulfill needs in driving innovation in order to achieve fit-for-purpose and sustainability. The context of the ASEAN region as a disaster-prone area should drive the region forward as leaders and pioneers in humanitarian innovation. “Therefore, let’s use HELIX sessions as the platform for convergence of innovative minds and ideas, that transcend and transform the way we do things in humanitarian logistics,” said Ms. Adelina.
Moreover, knowledge, engagement and collaboration are essential in actualising and executing the innovative ideas. In this regard, HELIX supported by Temasek Foundation, the UPS Foundation and Angel Investment Network Indonesia (ANGIN) successfully united almost 100 diverse speakers from humanitarian logistics actors and institutions, who ranged from academia and NDMOs to government and intergovernmental organisations, as well as from the private sector. They delivered 21 focus session talks and two keynote speeches in the plenary sessions. Some 21 companies and institutions took part in the virtual international exhibition along with almost 1,000 attendees in total from around the world.
What sort of innovations and ideas were in play? HELiX covered a wide array of topics and issues in the entirety of the humanitarian logistics field. There were innovations within the classic issue of capacity building, with solutions and experiences presented by the IFRC, ICRC and HELP Logistics. Gender and inclusion, an important aspect of humanitarian logistics, was emphasised in the session hosted by UN Women and UNFPA. Similarly, customs procedures in the context of delivering humanitarian aid were also discussed by the IMPACCT Working Group and the Humanitarian Logistics Association. There were also insights on new emerging technology related to data science, mapping and crowd-sourced apps in the sessions by Yayasan PetaBencana and the Humanitarian OpenStreetMap Team, and the exhibits by UN Pulse Labs Jakarta and the Thai Red Cross. Youth involvement and participation was the focus in a session hosted by the Philippine National Youth Commission and the ASEAN Senior Officials Meeting on Youth.
The important participation of new emerging innovators and technology could also be seen in one of the most interesting events in HELiX: the iPitch competition, where teams of innovators pitched their innovative projects to win prizes and advisory by experts. Winners of this competition were the Fleet for Emergency integrated platform by FleetHelp from Indonesia, the THINKLog supply chain management game by the TLIAP-GO team from NUS and the Padayon donation-matching app by the Asian Institute of Management from the Philippines.
Looking ahead, important lessons can be drawn from the success of HELiX. Moreover, HELiX could not have been successful without the participation and support of the partners of the AHA Centre, thus making clear the importance of cooperation, engagement and effective communication among humanitarian actors, academia, experts, etc.
In the near future HELiX will be followed by the AHAckathon hacking competition in October – a hacking competition aimed at students looking to contribute innovative ideas through programming and app creation. Stay tuned for further updates on this upcoming part of HELiX.
Written by : Yohanes Paulus, DELSA Intern | Photo Credit: AHA Centre
RINA NURHAFIZAH REZZA BINTI ABDUL RANI
The Column is pleased to feature Ms. Rina Nurhafizah Rezza Binti Abdul Rani, a member of the ASEAN Emergency Response and Assessment Team (ASEAN-ERAT) from Brunei Darussalam and the current Head of Operations at the National Disaster Management Centre (NDMC), a position that she has held since September 2018.
The year 2020 was among the most challenging of her career when the COVID-19 pandemic hit Brunei in March. The NDMC had been monitoring the outbreak since the end of 2019 and was engaged in preparation and close coordination with the Ministry of Health. From January 2020, the NDMC made plans to repatriate Bruneian students from abroad and these plans included identifying isolation venues at hotels and government facilities, and the procurement of personal protection equipment (PPE) supplies for frontline staff at land, air and sea borders.
When the coronavirus hit Brunei, the NDMC took on the role of supporting non-clinical operations with the Ministry of Health by facilitating the operations at the Ministry of Health Emergency Operation Centre (MOHEOC). From the beginning of the outbreak in Brunei until the Entry Travel Pass Portal System set up by the Prime Minister’s Office was introduced in September 2020. This involved ensuring all individuals arriving in Brunei by air, land or sea were isolated directly in their respective COVID-19 monitoring centres.
Ms. Rina was tasked with monitoring all non-clinical operations. Brunei had experienced pandemics before, including the H1N1 pandemic in 2009, but policies and procedures were rapidly amended and new ones introduced as a result of the dynamics, challenges and need for damage control throughout the operation. Also taking into consideration other countries’ experiences, many changes were made in order to ensure that best practices were implemented. Brunei fully optimised the government’s whole-nation approach with all government and non-government agencies providing full support in their respective roles.
She has been with the NDMC since 2009. However, her career was mostly spent at the planning and analysis division. She admits that sitting in the operations division has been a major challenge for her, but her knowledge and expertise in training and project management, related to disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation and resilience, have been invaluable in her current position.
Ms Rina is also a graduate of the AHA Centre Executive (ACE) Programme. During her time on the ACE Programme, she received the ACE Most Valuable Player 2019 Award together with two colleagues for consistently demonstrating high levels of engagement and great initiative in collaborating effectively.
She says that her ACE training was a great inspiration during the pandemic. She remembers a message from H.E. Jo Tyndal, New Zealand High Commissioner to Singapore, in a Leader’s Talk session while she was in ACE, “One of the important things for a leader is leading with kindness – to lead with patience, empathy and respect for other people. Kindness is not about naivety or weakness, it is about strength.” This message gave encouragement to her, especially during the most difficult times managing the pandemic.
“It was a very difficult period, but I am glad that I was there with the rest of the coordinators and frontliners working together. There were times where we were really exhausted, worn out, but with good leadership and teaming up with high-spirited people and the support given to each other, we managed to do it together and plant in our minds that achieving our ultimate objective in ensuring the safety of our nation was the most important thing for all of us. To date, Alhamdulillah, Brunei has already passed one year with no local transmissions,” she said.
Since graduating from the ACE Programme, Ms Rina has continued on her career within the NDMC. She has also taken an active role in representing the NDMC in the meetings of the ASEAN Committee on Disaster Management (ACDM), including serving as an ASEAN-ERAT advisory member and representing the NDMC at the meeting of the Working Group for Preparedness, Response and Recovery.
Talking about her hopes for the future, she hopes that ASEAN can stand united, and be able to achieve its objective of continuously and proactively creating a safe, adaptive, inclusive and disaster-resilient region, and fulfilling its motto of One ASEAN One Response.
Written by : Hillary Michael Hegarty | Photo Credit : Theophilus Yanuarto
ASEAN-ERAT
REFRESH OUR MIND ON INFORMATION MANAGEMENT
In these days of ever-increasing remote working it is easy to become rusty, to lose the day-to-day contact and interaction with colleagues and fellow professionals who can keep us up to date with all the latest news and developments that allow us to remain at our sharpest in our respective fields of operations, and to miss out on tips and innovations that can facilitate our work.
With that in mind and based on positive feedback from the ASEAN Emergency Response and Assessment Team’s (ASEAN-ERAT) Refresh Our Mind series, which started in the early part of this year, the AHA Centre is continuing the series to keep ASEAN-ERAT members engaged and connected from their homes or offices during the course of the pandemic. The second edition of the ASEAN-ERAT Refresh Our Mind series helped ASEAN-ERAT members to brush up their knowledge on information management, often using simple, readily available and free-to-use software and open-source material, and all in only 100 minutes.
Before the second edition commenced, the AHA Centre introduced ASEAN-ERAT members who had registered for the event to the AHA Centre’s Learning Management System. The ASEAN-ERAT members took the opportunity to update their knowledge about the key aspects of the Information Management continuum and got an introduction to Google Earth by watching short videos. Then, the ASEAN-ERAT members met through a video call to continue their learning journey on the same topic by taking part in an interactive quiz and conversing through a group discussion. The group discussion flowed well with an informal atmosphere, allowing the ASEAN-ERAT members to enjoy their Friday afternoon with small talk while sipping their favourite drinks, or simply waiting to break the fast for those who observed Ramadhan.
The discussion heard from an ASEAN-ERAT member from Indonesia, Mr Mizan Bisri, a former officer at the AHA Centre under the Disaster Monitoring and Analysis Unit. Currently he is Assistant Professor in Disaster Management at Kobe University and is a founder of CARI, a web-based knowledge management platform for disaster management, and he described the use of Google Earth for basic mapping to quickly capture the most reliable and visual information for initial-stage disaster responses.
His explanation was corroborated by the experience of another ASEAN-ERAT member, Mr Qingyuan Pang, from Singapore, an epidemiologist with the World Health Organisation, working in Cox’s Bazaar. Before he joined WHO, Mr Pang was the Assistant Director of the Disaster Monitoring and Analysis Unit of the AHA Centre and he explained that he used Google Earth as it was faster and much less tedious than other mapping tools. He also cited heatmapping, the graphical representation of data where values are depicted as colours, as another tool to help him visualise data and monitor diarrhoea outbreaks in Cox’s Bazaar.
In addition to the extended discussion on data visualisation, he shared the humanitarian icons from UNOCHA with other ASEAN-ERAT members. Mr Adiratna Wira Adnan, Senior Assistant Director in the Technical and Infrastructure Department of Malaysia’s National Disaster Management Agency, suggested using the icons as the standard reference for all ASEAN-ERAT members.
The AHA Centre wrapped up the second edition of the ASEAN-ERAT Refresh Our Mind series with the announcement of the quiz winners and prizes for those who completed their self-refreshment through the ASEAN-ERAT Learning Management System. The winners were Ms Murni Mat Amin (Malaysia), Ms Gaynor Tanyang and Mr Irvin Miranda (the Philippines), and Mr Pang (Singapore). Congratulations to all the winners!
Written by: Madiatri A. Silalahi | Photo Credit : ERAT PMT