MONTHLY DISASTER REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
MARCH 2021 | DISASTER MONITORING & ANALYSIS
(DMA) UNIT, AHA CENTRE
GENERAL REVIEW OF MARCH 2021
March 2021 saw a five-fold increase in terms of number of disaster occurrences compared to the five-year average for the same month. Noticeably, the number of houses that have been damaged/affected by reported disasters (63% of which were floods) for the period was also more than 5 times higher than the average. There is also an increase in the number of affected people during the month of March 2021. In contrast, lower numbers were observed for internally displaced persons (68.5% decrease), casualties (81.8% decrease), injuries (68.9% decrease), and missing people (100% decrease). The increase in disaster numbers were largely driven by the La Niña conditions resulting in increased precipitation across Indonesia – from where almost 80% of the disasters were reported. As of the first quarter of 2021, the number of disaster reports (328) is already more than half of the previous year’s annual total (530). Despite this significant increase, the number of affected people for 2021 is on-track to come in well below 2020’s totals, with current figures reaching 14% of 2020’s final amount (26.1 million).
A total of 19 significant earthquakes (M≥5.0) were reported in the region for March 2021 by local authorities in Indonesia and the Philippines. Volcanic activity was also reported for volcanoes currently on Alert Level III, namely Mount Merapi and Sinabung in Indonesia. Taal Volcano in the Philippines was elevated to Alert Level 2 with steam-driven or phreatic eruptions, volcanic earthquakes, ash, and a dangerous accumulation/emission of volcanic gas affected surrounding areas. Activity was also reported for the mountains of Ibu, Dukono, Raung, and Kerinci in Indonesia, and also Mayon and Pinatubo in the Philippines – but none resulted in significant damage. Such early warning information from the local agencies is crucial in mitigating the effects of tectonic hazards.
SEASONAL OUTLOOK
The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) sees a likely transition in the ASEAN region from Northeast Monsoon to inter-monsoon conditions in April 2021, and prevailing winds are expected to be light and variable in direction on most days. An increase in shower activities is expected as the monsoon rain band moves over the equator. The inter-monsoon conditions are expected to persist until May 2021, before a transition to Southwest Monsoon conditions in June 2021.
For the April to June 2021 period, models predict above-average rainfall over much of the ASEAN region north of the equator (mainland Southeast Asia and central and northern Philippines), and some chance of below-average rainfall for much of Sumatra and Borneo. La Niña conditions are present over the tropical Pacific Ocean, with climate models predicting its continued weakening to ENSO neutral conditions throughout the months of April to June.
Warmer-than-usual temperatures are expected over the equatorial region Peninsular Malaysia, Indonesia, as well as southern Philippines. The traditional dry season for the Mekong sub-region is likely to continue into April and May 2021, with significant hotspot and smoke haze activities. Above-average rainfall is expected for the sub-region, and shower activities on some days could help to alleviate the situation. The traditional dry season for the Mekong sub-region is expected to end by late May/early June 2021. Some parts of the southern ASEAN region, such as Sumatra and Borneo, may experience below-average rainfall between April-June 2021, and isolated hotspots with localised smoke plumes may develop at times during periods of drier weather. More persistent dry weather for the southern ASEAN region is expected from June 2021 as the traditional dry season sets in, increasing the risk of elevated hotspot activities and transboundary smoke haze.
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general and based on the latest runs from models provided by the SEA RCC-Network LRF node. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN Member States National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.
Sources : ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet), ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), ASEAN Disaster Monitoring and Response System (DMRS), Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB), Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG), Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG), National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), Philippine Institute for Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS), National Disaster Management Agency – Malaysia (NADMA), Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation – Thailand (DDPM), Viet Nam Disaster Management Authority (VNDMA)
Written by : Keith Paolo Landicho, Sadhu Zukhruf Janottama, Lawrence Anthony Dimailig
DISCLAIMER
Disclaimer from ASMC: The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general and based on the latest runs from models provided by the SEA RCC-Network LRF node. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN Member States’ National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.
INTERNATIONAL WOMEN’S DAY 2021:
CELEBRATING WOMEN’S LEADERSHIP IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT
As part of 2021’s International Women’s Day and the month of celebrations that followed, the AHA Centre was engaged in an array of events and discussions promoting and highlighting women’s roles in disaster management and leadership. AHA Centre staff participated through online platforms, and the Centre’s Executive Director Ms Adelina Kamal was a keynote speaker for a number of these interesting events.
A key event was the virtual discussion held by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), Women’s International Network for Disaster Risk Reduction (WIN DRR), UN Women and UNDRR’s Regional Office for Asia and Pacific. It engaged some of the Asia-Pacific region’s leading women in disaster management, and saw an array of diverse and inspiring women leaders sharing insights and concerns related to women’s role in disaster and the wider community – particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Ms Mami Mizutori, the United Nations Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Disaster Risk Reduction, probed key areas of governance and participatory strategies by highlighting the need to ask government “Have you included woman in the making of strategies? Are women part of the decision-making and part of the implementation of these strategies?”. “If the answers are no” she continued, “then we need to strongly urge governments to involve women to get their feedback on the strategies”.
Ms Marian Grace L. Ticzon, a Youth Advocate from the National Rural Women Coalition in the Philippines, also brought some fresh and different insights to the discussion, speaking about some of the key issues faced by rural women and youth. “First are the pre-existing issues faced by most rural women and young women, in particular a lack of access to resources and basic services. Infrastructure and access to health services are barriers, as many live in remote areas and have difficulties accessing transport to health centres and services.” “Second is a lack of access to information” Ms Ticzon continued, “as many rural women don’t have an internet connection, particularly if they live in a remote area”.
AHA Centre Executive Director Ms Adelina Kamal spoke about leadership during crisis – among other important topics – and called on women to engage from early on to lead and support their communities.
“Leadership is tested during crisis, but leadership can also be moulded during crisis. It takes a skilled swordsmith and the hottest fire to forge a sword. The swordsmith can be our teacher or mentor that provides us with the great opportunity to learn, and the fire is the crisis that will make us versatile in future battle”.
– Adelina Kamal
Other key speakers also shared their insights on women’s leadership during the pandemic, including presentations from Ms Bandana Rana (UN CEDAW Community), Ms Emeline Siale Ilolahia (Executive Director of PIANGO), and Ms Michelle Chivunga N, (Founder/CEO Global Policy House). The discussion was moderated by Ms Elizabeth Puranam from Aljazeera, and set the tone to further advance the movement of women leaders within the disaster management sector, and under the pandemic context in general.
Another key event during the last month was the “Women Leaders in Building Disaster Resilience” held on March 31 by ARISE Philippines – a local subsidiary of ARISE (the Private Sector Alliance for Disaster Resilient Societies) – who is a UNDRR-led network of private sector entities committed to support and implement the Sendai Framework and other key development policies. The event was implemented to recognise the important role of women participation and leadership in disaster risk reduction and resilience. Finally, another event that engaged Ms Kamal as a speaker was held by Asashi Shimbun, a newspaper from Japan, called Think Gender. Ms Kamal spoke to to inspire women, especially in Japan, to become leaders across an array of sectors and contexts.
Written by : Moch Syifa | Photo Credit: AHA Centre.
MARY ANN SARAH CRUZ ULAT
This volume we catch-up with AHA Centre Executive (ACE) Programme alumni Mary Ann Sarah Cruz Ulat (Sarah) from the Philippines National Disaster Management Organisation. Sarah took us through her work in the disaster management sector, her engagement in the ACE Programme and other ASEAN regional initiatives, and her experiences responding to disaster over recent years.
Sarah is currently the Head of the Operational Coordination (OpsCoord) Section of the Response and Operational Coordination Division, Operations Service, Office of Civil Defense Central Office (OCD CO). The Office of Civil Defense is the executive arm of the Philippine’s National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC). Her team sits on the strategic and policy-making level, with the OpsCoord Section primary responsible for the formulation of policies, plans, programmes and standards related to operations activities and response initiatives. She has been part of the OCD for almost six years, and holds an array of interesting and challenging experiences as a result.
As her role is a relatively new one, Sarah highlights a number of challenges and changes that she is currently facing and adjusting to within the work. “Time challenges are many, as are the challenges of mobility and accessibility in a nation like the Philippines”, Sarah explains. “I also recognise the need for people to integrate different levels within disaster response”, she says, but follows by acknowledging these challenges are a common experience in disaster management regardless of one’s position.
Sarah highlights the ACE Programme as one of the defining milestones in her career to this date, and stated that it forms a key element of her ongoing learning journey in the disaster management field. “It developed both personal and professional aspects of my work”, Sarah remembers, “it allowed me to better myself, gain friends, and experience new things while also gaining technical knowledge on various tools and mechanisms, and being exposed to the international sector”. Sarah considers the ACE Programme as an opportunity to develop relationships that can be used in building resilience. “Learning is a journey and so is resilience” she states. “This couldn’t be more emphasised than throughout the ACE Programme, as it helped us develop our competency in leading emergency and disaster situations through shared theories and practices. Bearing in mind that the core of what we do is for the people, from saving lives and reducing human suffering during disaster, to the improvement of the community’s quality of life by building resilience within yourself and the community you are working with.”
Sarah’s experiences responding to disasters also continue to define her career journey, although she hasn’t been engaged in a response since completing the ASEAN Emergency Response and Assessment Team (ASEAN-ERAT) course in 2019. “As part of organising the Philippine humanitarian mission to Indonesia to extend assistance to the affected population of the Palu, Central Sulawesi earthquake and tsunami in 2018, I realised the importance of policies and plans being formulated and implemented in preparation for events like this”, Sarah says. “This then creates an enabling environment for a more unimpeded and timely response, even in a trans-boundary operation.”
Sarah also draws on her academic background in environmental planning and human ecology when looking at the disaster management scenarios, and highlights the importance of strong local governance and community engagement as the major contributing factors to achieve resiliency.
“Participatory and inclusive approaches are key in preparing and implementing people-centred and community-driven development and DRRM plans. Communities tend to be collectively unique, requiring a unique approach in collaborating with them also. We must try to build connection, relationship, and trust with the communities; dipping your fingers into the water will enable you to better understand and relate.”
Finally, Sarah talks of the importance and context of ASEAN for disaster management, and recognises that ASEAN nations can capitalise on relationships, promote togetherness, and learn from each other regarding disaster.
“I envision that disaster risk reduction and management (DRR) is embedded in everybody’s way of life, and there is a sense of common responsibility. Starting with a strong foundation of community-based disaster risk reduction and management. A collective effort towards a more holistic, inclusive and sustainable DRR in ASEAN can result in a region that is more proactive when it comes to disaster management.”
Written by : Moch Syifa, William Shea | Photo Credit : AHA Centre
PREPARING FOR DELSA’S
HUMANITARIAN AND EMERGENCY LOGISTICS EXPO (HELIX)
In today’s complex yet interconnected world, responding to disasters and other humanitarian emergencies drives a need to rethink and innovate our disaster management processes. Furthermore, with increased disaster risks as the global climate warms, rapid mobilisation of humanitarian assistance and an efficient flow of relief supplies must be achieved. Innovation in the name of saving more lives continues to form an integral part of this solution.
What makes something “innovative”? The answer differs from person to person; but in general, we find something innovative if it tackles a problem in a different way from the norm. This may include looking at the problem from a different perspective, approaching the solution in an unexpected way, or applying a solution from a diverse or different context to work within a context it was not designed for.
In the modern era, the search for innovation is often led by profit-driven companies, and within the disaster management field this is particularly prevalent for businesses who focus on the issue of supply chain and logistics optimisation. For example, DHL has developed its map-based application Resilience 360 as a risk analytics tool for its commercial operations, which also has clear relevance to humanitarian logistics and supply chain management.
With many important developments in commercial logistics, actors within the humanitarian sector must take stock and critically review innovations to understand how they can improve disaster management – from pre-disaster through to the response and recovery phases. Such innovations hold potential to solve challenges concerning the transport, storage and distribution of relief assistance, as well as well as improve the design of relief items themselves.
Immediate access to vital aid such as sanitation, medicine, shelter, and nutrition are key elements of swift disaster response. Examples of innovations in this area include improved product designs of items such as collapsible jerry cans for household water storage, field-deployable medical tents, portable and self-contained semi-rigid shelters, and tools for relief personnel and search-and-rescue operations.
Another key area for disaster managers is the importance of data and information access and utilisation. Increasingly, sharing of satellite imagery – combined with drone technology and robotics – has been used to assess the immediate impacts of disasters and support search-and-rescue operations. Such innovations were evident during the 2018 Central Sulawesi earthquake and tsunami response.
Additionally, new and environmentally-friendly technologies – especially in manufacturing and transportation, which are especially critical to logistics – form another frontier that is being developed within innovation efforts in the humanitarian sector. This includes the use of renewable energy sources, such as solar power, in logistics transportation, and recyclable materials for developing emergency relief items. Such examples of environmentally-conscious developments are increasingly important given the undeniable link between climate change and increasing environmental disasters.
While it is easy to be swept up with technological hardware and digital innovations, many innovations may also be simple interventions that reach the most vulnerable groups. For example, the survivors of Typhoon Haiyan – particularly the elderly, people with disabilities and pregnant women – were offered a choice between “direct build” or cash transfers for their shelter assistance, thereby ensuring suitable opportunity for survivors to repair or rebuild their house. Cash transfers and vouchers are also being increasingly utilised over direct provision of relief items, allowing affected populations in making their own decisions on priority expenses during the aftermath of a disaster.
Such a wide array of topics may seem intimidating, but are nevertheless a critical component for any humanitarian effort. The AHA Centre in its role as the coordinating body of disaster management in Southeast Asia, and as part of its core mission of Knowledge and Outreach, continues to participate in and drive forward conversations regarding research and innovation in disaster management and humanitarian logistics.
The AHA Centre’s Disaster Emergency Logistics System of ASEAN (DELSA) programme’s upcoming event, the Humanitarian and Emergency Logistics Expo (HELiX), forms the newest component in the Centre’s steadfast commitment to this role. The event, which will be held in 20-25 May 2021, aims to foster exchange and discussion of new and emerging innovations in the field of humanitarian logistics through an exciting array of panel discussions featuring experts and innovators. HELiX also includes the AHAckathon (a software development competition) and iPitch (an innovation pitching competition), that are both aimed at encouraging and generating diverse new ideas from students, amateurs and professionals. The event is being held as part of Viet Nam’s National Week of Disaster Prevention and Control, led by the Viet Nam National Disaster Management Authority. HELiX will be held in a fully online format, and invites the participation of youth, students, and established agencies in developing new approaches and solutions within this dynamic field through technology and creative design thinking.
Written by: Yohanes Paulus, Caroline Widagdo and Gaynor Tanyang | Photo Credit : AHA Centre