MONTHLY DISASTER REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2021 | DISASTER MONITORING & ANALYSIS
(DMA) UNIT, AHA CENTRE
GENERAL REVIEW OF JANUARY 2021
The figures of recorded disasters for the first month of 2021 were significantly higher than the five-year average for the same period. The region reported around a seven-fold increase in the overall number of disaster occurrences. Despite this large difference in disaster numbers, the number of affected and displaced persons for January 2021 were only around 1.5 times higher. On another note, significantly higher number of damaged houses, casualties, injuries, and number of missing persons were observed compared to January averages. The staggering impact on ASEAN populations was largely driven by the M6.2 earthquake in West Sulawesi during the second week of January. Close to 100,000 individuals were affected and displaced by this event, which also claimed over 100 lives. Outside of this earthquake, almost 80% of recorded disasters were floods, which can be attributed to the Northeast Monsoon conditions. This is characterised by wetter conditions in the southern ASEAN region, particularly Indonesia where 70 of the 86 flood disasters were recorded. These figures also do not yet include other hydro-meteorological disasters – such as storms and rain-induced landslides – which have also been reported during January 2021.
A total of 29 significant earthquakes (M≥5.0) were reported in the region for January 2021. As previously mentioned, the M6.2 earthquake in West Sulawesi on 15 January resulted in significant loss and impact to local populations and infrastructure. Volcanic activity was reported for Alert Level III volcanoes in Indonesia, with Mount Merapi, Sinabung, Semeru, and Karangetang under close monitoring. Recent volcanic activity was also reported for the mountains of Ibu, Dukono, and Raung in Indonesia (Alert Level II), and Mayon in the Philippines (Alert Level I), but there were no reports of significant damage.
SEASONAL OUTLOOK
According to the seasonal forecast by the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) for February to April 2021, Northeast Monsoon conditions persisted over the ASEAN region in January 2021. The northern ASEAN region continues to experience its traditional dry season as the monsoon rain band lies south of the Equator during the Northeast Monsoon. The prevailing northeasterly or easterly winds over the region could strengthen at times under the influence of high pressure systems moving eastwards over continental Asia. During February, Peninsular Malaysia and Singapore could also at times experience dry and windy conditions as they enter the dry phase of the Northeast Monsoon. Elsewhere in the southern ASEAN region, shower activities are expected with the prevailing winds blowing from the northwest or northeast. Light and variable wind conditions are expected across the ASEAN region as inter-monsoon conditions develop in March-April 2021.
For the February to April 2021 period, models predict above-average rainfall over much of the ASEAN region north of the equator. La Niña conditions are still present over the tropical Pacific Ocean, with climate models predicting La Niña conditions to last through the first quarter of 2021, but weakening during the boreal spring (March – May). La Niña conditions are typically associated with wetter-than-average conditions over the Southeast Asia region.
Warmer-than-average temperatures are expected over the eastern Maritime Continent as well as Myanmar. Much of mainland Southeast Asia, except Myanmar, may experience below-to near-normal temperatures. As the traditional dry season for the Mekong sub-region becomes firmly established during February to April 2021, dry conditions are forecast to persist despite above-average rainfall outlooks for parts of the sub-region. This is expected to cause hotspot situations in the sub-region to remain elevated, and an increased risk of transboundary haze may also be expected. In some parts of the southern ASEAN region isolated hotspots with localised smoke plumes may develop at times during periods of drier weather.
Sources : ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet), ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), ASEAN Disaster Monitoring and Response System (DMRS), Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB), Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG), Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG), National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), Philippine Institute for Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS), National Disaster Management Agency – Malaysia (NADMA), Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation – Thailand (DDPM), Viet Nam Disaster Management Authority (VNDMA)
Written by : Keith Paolo Landicho, Sadhu Zukhruf Janottama, Lawrence Anthony Dimailig
DISCLAIMER
Disclaimer from ASMC: The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general and based on the latest runs from models provided by the SEA RCC-Network LRF node. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN Member States’ National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted. Hydrological Services should be consulted.
ASEAN SUPPORT
FOR THAILAND’S RESPONSE TO NEW OUTBREAK OF COVID-19
In collaboration with Thailand’s Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM), the AHA Centre mobilised relief items as a response to the latest outbreak of COVID-19 in Samut Sakhon Province, Thailand. There are currently more than 4,000 people under quarantine, most of whom are immigrant fisheries workers arriving from neighbouring ASEAN nations.
Ms Adelina Kamal, the Executive Director of the AHA Centre, explained that the mobilisation of relief items aims to augment Thailand government’s ongoing efforts to respond to COVID-19 outbreak in the province. “The ASEAN relief items are mobilised to support the operation of field hospitals that are now being set-up by the Government of Thailand. This mobilisation of support further showcases the solidarity of the ASEAN countries during this challenging situation”, Ms Kamal stated.
Supported by the Government of Japan through Japan-ASEAN Integration Fund (JAIF), the relief items comprising of 2,100 personal hygiene kits and 50 family tents, were mobilised from the Disaster Emergency Logistics System for ASEAN (DELSA) Satellite Warehouse in Chainat, Thailand. As of 31 January 2021, four batches of items have been mobilised to two provinces, as well as directly to the Ministry of Public Health, Thailand.
The first batch (500 personal hygiene kits – PHK) was delivered to Nonthaburi Province on 4 January 2021, and the second batch comprising of 1,000 PHK were mobilised to Samut Sakhon Province on January 8. A total of 50 family tents were also delivered to the Ministry of Public Health as part of the third batch of items on 11 January. The last mobilisation was on January 30, and was made-up of 600 PHK that were sent to Nonthaburi Province. The remaining relief items will be mobilised by the DDPM after finalising the delivery schedule.
It is not the first time that the AHA Centre has mobilised ASEAN relief items to support ongoing operations responding to the impact of COVID-19. During the May to August 2020 period, the AHA Centre mobilised DELSA relief items from all three DELSA stockpiles located in Subang, Malaysia; Chainat, Thailand; and Quezon City, the Philippines. Five thousands PHK were mobilised from DELSA satellite warehouse in Quezon City, the Philippines, and sent to local government quarantine sites across the country as well as one mobile storage unit (MSU) was mobilised to the Department of Health for storing the medical equipment located in Manila. One Mobile Storage Unit and one pre-fabricated office were mobilised from the DELSA regional stockpile in Subang, Malaysia to support the coordination and management operations of a field hospital in Selangor. Also, one Mobile Storage Unit and 2,900 PHK were released from both the DELSA regional stockpile in Subang and the DELSA satellite warehouse in Chainat to support the pandemic response in Cambodia.
Such mobilisations of DELSA relief items to support COVID-19 – including the recent activity to support Thailand’s response – is based on the collective decision of the ASEAN Member States during the AHA Centre’s Governing Board Special Meeting in May 2020. It aims to provide specific support through relief items from the three DELSA locations as an interim measure to cover operational gaps in the pandemic responses of ASEAN nations.
Written by : Moch Syifa | Photo Credit : DDPM Thailand
MUHAMMAD FAUZIE ISMAIL
This month, Muhammad Fauzie Ismail from the National Disaster Management Agency (NADMA) of Malaysia chats to the AHA Centre about his regional disaster management experience. As an AHA Centre Executive (ACE) Programme graduate in 2015, Fauzie spoke about his experience and his hopes for disaster management in Malaysia and the wider ASEAN region.
Fauzie returned back to NADMA in 2019 after completing a Masters in Emergency Response and Planning at University Putra Malaysia (UPM) Malaysia, and was assigned to the Community and Social Development Section, Post Disaster Management Division. “In general, my work involves planning and implementing community development programmes with the aim to create a resilient community towards disaster through Disaster Risk Reduction initiatives”, Fauzie says. “This includes collaborating with all stakeholders using the whole-of-society approach at all levels through integrated planning.” Fauzie also tells us that in disaster response, his primary role is to support coordinating all the Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs) who work within the initial government response.
A graduate of the AHA Centre’s ACE Programme supported under Japan-ASEAN Integration Fund (JAIF), Fauzie highlights its impact on his understanding and skills across all areas of disaster management. He also remembers the role of the programme in extending his networks by engaging with other disaster managers from across ASEAN – with whom he remains in contact to this day.
“It also helped develop my confidence to share and explore new ways of doing things when managing disaster”
-Muhammad Fauzie Ismail
Having been involved in a number of disaster responses over the years, Fauzie remembers the 2018 Central Sulawesi response vividly. “Despite being able to experience the actual deployment first-hand, the most valuable learning point was the importance of having effective training – especially from the ASEAN-ERAT Induction Course, ARDEX and other similar trainings” Fauzie says. “These trainings are carefully constructed to enable the participants to visualise the real situation, and I feel that all these trainings really prepared me prior to actual deployment.”
More recently Fauzie’s challenges are related to the national response to the COVID-19 pandemic, in which he is working to support community behaviour change within the ‘new normal’. Without face-to-face communication and with social distancing, he and his team have to be creative to find new ways to relay messages down to the community at grassroots level. While the pandemic may have added extra challenges, Fauzie still highlights the importance of technology in the future of ASEAN disaster management.
“I believe leveraging technological advancement is the key to our future response. Usage of new and emerging technology such as mobile solutions, social media and digital communities will provide us with new ways for ASEAN and their beneficiaries to communicate faster and better”
“With help from such technologies, we can respond faster and make accurate decisions
on the ground in disaster response.”
-Muhammad Fauzie Ismail
Written by : William Shea | Photo : Doc. of Muhammad Fauzie Ismail
EU-SAHA
PROJECT STEERING COMMITTEE MEETING
The Integrated Programme in Enhancing the Capacity of AHA Centre and ASEAN Emergency Response Mechanisms (EU-SAHA) began in early 2020,, and although many activities have been pushed back due to the global pandemic, the AHA Centre continued with the implementation in the programme’s inaugural year. On 8 December, 2020, the Project Steering Committee for the EU-SAHA came together in an online environment to undertake their first formal meeting, aimed to provide a report and updates on the implementation process after the first year.
Engaged in the meeting were all key members of the Project Steering Committee (PSC) – including representatives from the AHA Centre, EU Mission to ASEAN, the Disaster Management and Humanitarian Assistance Division of ASEAN Secretariat, the Estonian Rescue Board (ERB), and the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB). The meeting was also co-chaired by the Singapore Civil Defence Force (SCDF), the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) of the Philippines, and the EU Mission to ASEAN.
The first PSC meeting primarily reported on the four key outputs or results that form the target of EU-SAHA overall. While the pandemic created obstacles for the achievement of outcomes as originally planned, there was still considerable progress in activities that form each of the key programmatic outcomes.
OUTPUT/RESULT 1:
Efforts undertaken during 2020 as part of this output/result included the hiring of specialist staff, as well as the implementation of a capacity development project. There were eight positions fully-funded by EU-SAHA filled during the year, alongside eight partially-funded positions. Alongside this, a key component of the EU-SAHA programme – namely the Leveraging ASEAN Capacities for Emergency Response (LACER) project – was implemented with the support of the ERB and MSB. This AHA Centre institutional and operational capacity strengthening project developed and validated its baseline information with the AHA Centre, and finalised a workplan for the coming phases that was also presented at the PSC meeting.
OUTPUT/RESULT 2:
Activities implemented during 2020 under Output/Result 2 were primarily focused on strengthening multi-stakeholder engagement and communication, and increasing brand awareness of the AHA Centre. The included the development of the EU-SAHA Communication and Visibility Plan, and the publication of EU-SAHA fact sheets to support basic communication of the project. Communication activities supporting the responses to a number of tropical storms in Viet Nam and Super Typhoon GONI (ROLLY) in the Philippines were also implemented, as were other communications efforts to support AHA Centre events and engagements during the year. Finally, recruitment was undertaken for a consultant to deliver a media monitoring and journalism workshop, with the event targeted to take place early in 2021.
OUTPUT/RESULT 3:
The key activity underneath this output/result was the publication of the 2018 After-Action Review – an evaluative and reflective report that encompassed the AHA Centre’s largest year of disaster response since its establishment in November 2011.
OUTPUT/RESULT 4:
Working towards the fourth output/result in 2020 included the review and improvement of the AHA Centre’s current Knowledge and Change Management (KCM) systems. This entailed reviewing the original strategy developed in 2016, and updating it to suit the current context of the AHA Centre. This included re-developing the KCM framework, developing a taxonomy system and guideline for documentation, reviewing 2020 workplan and tasks both for the AHA Centre and the wider AADMER programme workplans, and synchronising the upcoming workplans (2021-2025) between the AHA Centre and AADMER. Additionally, 2020 also saw the development and publication of the 2nd ASEAN Risk Monitor and Disaster Management Review (ARMOR) – which also forms a key element of the AHA Centre’s knowledge management processes.
After the in-depth reports and reviews, the EU-SAHA workplan was also delivered and discussed by the PSC during their meeting. This included highlighting risks and challenges – particularly related to the ongoing pandemic – and how such issues may be overcome to ensure the continuation of this all-important programme.
Written by : William Shea | Photo Credit : AHA Centre