MONTHLY DISASTER REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
OCTOBER 2020 | DISASTER MONITORING & ANALYSIS
(DMA) UNIT, AHA CENTRE
GENERAL REVIEW OF OCTOBER 2020
A total of 89 disaster events were recorded for the month of October 2020, which is almost twice the amount recorded in September 2020 (45), and is eight times the amount recorded in October 2019. The number of recorded disasters for the month is also six times that of October’s previous five-year average. Along the same lines, the figures show significantly higher occurrences of affected people, internally displaced people, damaged houses, casualties and missing persons when compared to the previous 5-year averages, however, there was a decrease in the number of disaster-related injuries recorded. Such high figures can be attributed to the impact of tropical cyclones that affected the Philippines and Viet Nam (namely Tropical Depression OFEL and Typhoon MOLAVE). A combination of weather systems has also been reported as affecting both Cambodia and Lao PDR according to the National Disaster Management Office of Lao PDR and the National Committee on Disaster Management of Cambodia. Additionally, with the onset of La Niña conditions, torrential rains became more likely across the ASEAN region, and with this, the potential for hydro-meteorological and climatological disasters is significantly higher than previous five-year averages – according to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre and the Bureau of Meteorology Australia.
On the geophysical front, a total of 33 significant earthquakes (M≥5.0) were reported in the region during October 2020. Ongoing volcanic activity was reported for the Indonesian mountains of Ibu, Semeru, Dukono, and Kerinci, as well as Bulusan, Kanlaon and Taal mountains in the Philippines. No significant damage occurred as a result of volcanic activity during October 2020, which in some cases can be attributed to improved preparedness and response mechanisms around the active volcanic areas.
SEASONAL OUTLOOK
The Southwest Monsoon gradually made way for inter-monsoon conditions during early November 2020, as the prevailing winds over the ASEAN region became generally weak and variable. Inter-monsoon conditions are characterised by increased shower activities over most parts of southern ASEAN, as the monsoon rain band lies close to the equatorial region. The inter-monsoon conditions are expected to last for around one month, before transitioning to the Northeast Monsoon. During the Northeast Monsoon, the northern ASEAN region enters its traditional dry season, while the southern ASEAN region can expect more rainy weather.
For the November 2020 to January 2021 period, above-average rainfall is predicted for the ASEAN region south of the equator, as well as the Philippines and parts of Viet Nam, Lao PDR, and Cambodia. La Niña conditions are present over the tropical Pacific Ocean, with most climate models predicting La Niña conditions to persist for this period, of which will typically result in wetter-than-average conditions over the Southeast Asia region. In turn, the region should expect a potential increase in hydro-meteo-climatological hazards (floods, flash-floods, rain-induced landslides).
While warmer-than-average temperatures are expected to continue over much of the Maritime Continent for the next three months, parts of Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet Nam may experience below to near-normal temperatures.
With wetter conditions expected in November, the hotspot activities in the southern ASEAN region are forecast to remain subdued, although isolated hotpots and localised smoke plumes may still be detected during brief periods of drier weather. A gradual increase in hotspot activities may be expected over the northern ASEAN region from December 2020, as this is the period when the region enters its traditional dry season with the onset of Northeast Monsoon.
Data Sources: ASEAN Disaster Information Network, ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre
Written by : Keith Paolo Landicho, Lawrence Anthony Dimailig
DISCLAIMER
Disclaimer: AHA Centre’s estimation is based on data and information shared by National Disaster Management Organisations (NDMOs) and other relevant agencies from ASEAN Member States, international organisations and news agencies. Further information on each recorded-significant disaster, description and detail of data and information are available at: http://adinet.ahacentre.org/reports.
TROPICAL STORMS LINFA AND NANGKA:
THE AHA CENTRE’S FIRST DISASTER RESPONSE AMIDST THE PANDEMIC
Significant weather activity during the middle of October, 2020, saw the AHA Centre mobilised ASEAN relief items in response to Tropical Storms LINFA and NANGKA that struck Viet Nam. Supported through the Japan-ASEAN Integration Fund (JAIF), the relief items were airlifted from the Disaster Emergency Logistics System for ASEAN (DELSA) regional stockpile in Subang, Malaysia, with the assistance of the United Nations Humanitarian Response Depot (UNHRD). The items included 1,300 kitchen sets and 1,000 shelter repair kits, and reached Da Nang International Airport, Viet Nam in the evening of the 20th of October.
Ms Adelina Kamal, the Executive Director of the AHA Centre, stated that the AHA Centre worked closely with the Viet Nam Disaster Management Authority of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development – Viet Nam Central Steering Committee for Natural Disaster Prevention and Control, to monitor the impact of Tropical Storms LINFA and NANGKA. “We also intensified our disaster monitoring efforts from early October, after identifying the formation of the tropical storms,” Ms Kamal explained.
According to Ms Kamal, the relief items represent the tangible assistance and solidarity of the ASEAN nations, under the spirit of ‘One ASEAN, One Response’. This was also the AHA Centre’s first natural disaster response amidst the COVID-19 pandemic context, which meant that most preparations, including at the Emergency Operations Centre (EOC), were conducted remotely.
The disaster response effort within the pandemic context created a range of other new challenges for the AHA Centre team. Engaging partners and all other response stakeholders within a remote environment was a primary focus of the AHA Centre, as it worked out new and innovative ways to ensure its primary role was fulfilled regardless of the limitations caused by the situation. On 15 October, the AHA Centre organised an online Executive Briefing for all ASEAN Member States, diplomatic missions and humanitarian partners, together with the Secretary-General of ASEAN and the Viet Nam Disaster Management Authority. This gathering worked to provide situational awareness and a common operating overview of the impacts resulting from Tropical Storms LINFA and NANGKA in the ASEAN region. The briefing was attended by over 40 invitees, including the Secretary-General of ASEAN H.E. Dato Lim Jock Hoi and the Deputy Director-General of the Viet Nam Disaster Management Authority (VNDMA) Mr. Nguyen Van Tien. Both these key stakeholders also provided strong and clear input during the Executive Briefing.
The widespread floods caused by Tropical Storms LINFA and NANGKA not only affected multiple provinces through central Viet Nam, but also impacted other areas in Cambodia and Lao PDR. More than 800,000 people in Viet Nam were affected by the storms, with more than 66,500 people evacuated. The AHA Centre remained on stand-by to support and coordinate with the Viet Nam Disaster Management Authority, as well as continue to monitor the situation in Viet Nam and other ASEAN countries. “We do hope that the relief items will lighten up the spirit of the communities affected by the storms in central Viet Nam,” Ms Kamal added.
Written by : Moch Syifa | Photo Credit : VNDMA for AHA Centre
KAJSA SJÖSVÄRD
This month the AHA Centre invited Kajsa Sjösvärd – an international roster member from the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB) and disaster management professional – to provide an insight into her work in disaster management both internationally and within Sweden. Topics ranged from the current pandemic response through to leadership and the sector in general, and we bring to you some of Kajsa’s key experiences and recommendations from the wide-ranging interview.
“My focus is on how to set up a well-functioning staff function, how to optimize it and how to maintain the personnel on a good energy level, despite the stressful environment”
Kajsa has recently been appointed team leader of the MSB’s LACER project being implemented with the AHA Centre, which provides her a new experience of working in the ASEAN region, to go alongside over a decade of experience with MSB and also locally in Sweden. “I am the Director of Crisis Management and Societal Safety at the County Board of Dalarna, in Sweden, and within that capacity I often take on the role of Chief of Staff when a disaster occurs in the County. I have also been a member of MSBs international roster for 10 years and have had several assignments in different capacities and continents.” Recently, Kajsa has also been engaged in Sweden’s pandemic response, as well as leading a response team after the devastating forest fires in Sweden during 2018.
A big part of Kajsa’s role is leadership – which sees her in charge of a range of staff during disaster responses at a local and international level. “My focus is on how to set up a well-functioning staff function, how to optimize it and how to maintain the personnel on a good energy level, despite the stressful environment” Kajsa explains. “I enjoy working with other people in teams and to set up and reach goals. It is challenging to be a part of the development process where an organisation, and foremost the persons within the organisation, are working together to reach new goals and continuously progress. I thrive being a leader in that context, to support and provide energy, but also to guide direction and find creative solutions to problems.” Kajsa also highlights the important aspects of leadership in the disaster field by explaining that “it is important to be communicative, flexible, have a positive mind-set, take the initiative and make decisions when dealing with disasters”.
Kajsa also highlights the importance of positivity and leadership during long and challenging deployments, and also promotes undertaking activities to wind down when possible – with Kajsa’s preferences being running and mountain biking. She also highlights the lessons that the global pandemic has taught us in relation to disaster management, and believes it has strengthened some of the long-held beliefs of global disaster management professionals. “I believe more global cooperation, coordination and learning is needed, not less. No single state can act in isolation concerning these borderless disasters. That is why transboundary cooperation, at different levels, will remain crucial. I think that it poses a challenge, but also a great opportunity for everyone working with disasters.”
“it is important to be communicative, flexible, have a positive mind-set, take the initiative and make decisions when dealing with disasters”.
Written by : Moch Syifa and William Shea | Photo : AHA Centre
ACE WEBINAR ON PANDEMICS AND NATURAL DISASTERS:
RETHINKING HUMANITARIAN LOGISTICS
While the global pandemic has interrupted capacity building efforts such as the AHA Centre Executive (ACE) Programme, the Centre continues to provide education for ACE Programme graduates. The AHA Centre recently implemented a webinar series to support its objectives of capacity-building, networking, and utilising leadership competencies to improve national and regional coordination response mechanisms and disaster management more broadly. The webinars will run from September to November 2020, and are primarily intended to expose the ACE Programme graduates to the latest trends and challenges in disaster management.
The first webinar was conducted on 16 September 2020, in which experts and practitioners from International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), United Nations Humanitarian Response Depot (UNHRD), the World Food Programme (WFP) and HELP Logistics shared their humanitarian logistics experiences managing humanitarian relief operations amidst COVID-19.
This pandemic has disrupted humanitarian relief operations in many ways. Restrictions limit the deployment of items and staff to the field, while global shortages of specific items (such as personal protective equipment – PPE) also hampered the supply chain at the beginning of the pandemic. Alongside this, the speed of deployment has been affected due to border closures and also shortage of commercial flights. Delays on getting tax exemptions remain a challenge as many officials work from home, reducing human resource capacity to process documentation, while some stakeholders maintain their usual ways of working in contrast with the general crisis business approaches.
All webinar speakers agreed that this pandemic has forced humanitarian actors to be agile in terms of planning and operations. This can begin with creating closer supply chain hubs, outsourcing to the private sector, and integrating efforts and coordination with manufacturers/suppliers on medical PPE. The speakers also pointed out the importance of logistic sustainability and responsiveness, by enhancing local logistic capacity and prepositioning of commodities which are contextualised according to the population density. The use of non-in-kind assistance, for example cash, is also an option to ensure effective humanitarian assistance. Speakers and participants agreed that export-import restriction and country isolation are the most serious challenges for disaster impact that need to be addressed. In this sense, collaboration and cooperation among stakeholders is required to improve the logistic supply chain and reduce the supply competition.
The first two-hour webinar was attended by 150 participants from various sectors – with 77% of the participants having a background in disaster management and 87% having some job responsibility related to humanitarian logistic. ACE Programme graduate Ms Murni Mat Amin from the National Disaster Management Agency (NADMA) Malaysia summed up the discussion as a key step to “think strategically and act collaboratively”. The bonding between ACE Programme graduates through engagement such as this form a further opportunity to ensure an efficient flow of humanitarian logistic across the region.
Written by : Gaynor Tanyang/ Ferosa Arsadita | Photo : AHA Centre