MONTHLY DISASTER REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
JUNE 2020 | DISASTER MONITORING & ANALYSIS
(DMA) UNIT, AHA CENTRE
GENERAL REVIEW OF JUNE 2020
A total of 41 disaster events were recorded for the month of June 2020, which was a little lower when compared to May 2020, however, more than double the June average for the previous five years. Despite this increase, there was a significant overall decrease in the number of affected people (around 9 times less), internally displaced, injuries and missing persons recorded. However, increases to the number of damaged houses and casualties (more than threefold) were also reported. A majority of disasters recorded were flooding events (28, or almost 70%); with 20 out of those 28 occurring in Indonesia. This could be attributed to the prevalence of southwest monsoon conditions in the ASEAN region since late May, as noted by the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC). Other disasters for June 2020 included an earthquake, three landslides, four storms, and five other wind-related hazards. The recorded casualties were mainly attributed to a landslide event in the Hpakant Township of Myanmar. This landslide was reportedly triggered by heavy rain that caused the bank of the Laku creek to collapse, setting off a fatal wave of mud and torrents of water into the area used by locals to mine for jade.
From a Geophysical perspective, there was a total of 25 significant earthquakes (≥ M5.0) reported for June 2020 across the region. Volcanic activity was observed for Dukono and Semeru Volcanoes in Indonesia throughout June, however the Alert Level remained at 2. Volcanic activity was also reported for Indonesia’s Sangeang Api and Bulusan and Taal in the Philippines. The 21st of June also saw an eruption of Indonesia’s Mount Merapi, located on the border of Central Java and Yogyakarta. The eruption recorded an amplitude of 75mm and a duration of 100 seconds, and saw ash clouds reaching 8,968m above sea level, exposing 184,273 people within a 10km radius to the ash. However, no casualties were reported as a result of this eruption.
SEASONAL OUTLOOK
During July 2020, wetter conditions (above-average rainfall) for most of the equatorial region are forecast. The largest positive anomalies (wetter conditions) are expected over the coastal equatorial regions. For Mainland Southeast Asia, below-average rainfall is forecast over northern Viet Nam, northern Philippines, and coastal Myanmar. This pattern of below-average rainfall broadly follows the coastal regions between 15°N to 20°N latitudes.
The prevailing Southwest Monsoon conditions (rainy conditions in the northern ASEAN region and dry in the southern region) that have been in effect since late May are expected to continue until September 2020. These conditions are likely to bring more rains to the northern ASEAN region that could result in flooding and rain-induced landslides. However, it is expected to gradually weaken by October 2020 signalling the onset of the inter-monsoon period, that is characterised by warm weather and increased rain shower activities. By August 2020, the prevailing winds in the ASEAN region are forecast to blow from southeast to southwest. There is also an increased chance of above-average rainfall over much of the maritime continent and southern coastal regions of the Mekong sub-region.
Data Sources : ASEAN Disaster Information Network, ASEAN Specialised Meteorogical Centre
Written by : Keith Paolo Landicho, Lawrence Anthony Dimailig, Aril Aditian
DISCLAIMER
Disclaimer: AHA Centre’s estimation is based on data and information shared by National Disaster Management Organisations (NDMOs) and other relevant agencies from ASEAN Member States, international organisations and news agencies. Further information on each recorded-significant disaster, description and detail of data and information are available at: http://adinet.ahacentre.org/reports.
AHA CENTRE
OPENS PROJECT OFFICE IN MYANMAR
Developing capacities at national level in an ongoing, face-to-face format ensures intensive and targeted capacity development of disaster management actors in ASEAN Member States – an outcome that forms the central reasoning of the new AHA Centre project office in Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar. Working alongside Myanmar’s Department of Disaster Management (its National Disaster Management Organisation – NDMO), the AHA Centre and the Government of Myanmar aim to strengthen the nation’s disaster management sector through this pilot project, that will also stand as evidence for replication in other nations in the years to come.
Identifying comprehensive and durable solutions that address the situation in Rakhine, Myanmar formed a key need highlighted by the ASEAN Leaders during the 33rd ASEAN Summit in Singapore, November 2018. Within this discussion arose the importance of creating a conducive environment for affected communities to rebuild their lives. During the Summit, all ASEAN Leaders also expressed continued support for Myanmar in its effort to bring peace, stability, the rule of law, to promote harmony and reconciliation among various communities, as well to ensure sustainable and equitable development in Rakhine State.
As part of this ongoing effort, ASEAN Leaders also affirmed their readiness to support Myanmar in the process of repatriating displaced communities, and welcomed the invitation from Myanmar to the AHA Centre to engage a needs assessment team to the region, in an effort to identify possible areas of cooperation to facilitate the repatriation process in Rakhine State. As a result, the ASEAN Emergency Response and Assessment Team (ASEAN-ERAT) was deployed to Myanmar to conduct a preliminary need assessment (PNA) for repatriation during March 2019. A key finding from the PNA was the opportunity to enhance the readiness of Myanmar Government’s local capacity to provide humanitarian assistance as part of the repatriation process. Based on this outcome, a project was approved for implementation in Myanmar, through the ongoing support of the Japan-ASEAN Integration Fund (JAIF).
This pioneer project, entitled “Enhancing the Readiness of Myanmar Government Local Capacity in Providing Humanitarian Assistance to Support the Repatriation Process“, aims to develop localised tools and methodologies that can then serve as a reference and model for future local capacity building programmes across other ASEAN Member States. More formally, the project has three key goals that are:
Therefore, a project management team has been recruited in Myanmar, and have begun their work alongside the Department of Disaster Management in Nay Pyi Taw. The team is currently made-up of a National Project Manager, a National Training Officer, and a Finance & Administration Officer, who will implement the project’s activities and strategy with support from the AHA Centre team based in Jakarta, as well as guidance from the Government of Myanmar and the other 9 ASEAN Member States.
Written by : Aye Theint Thu | Photo Credit : AHA Centre
RISDIANTO IRAWAN
The AHA Centre’s own Risdianto Irawan – or Risdi as we know him – was first drawn to the disaster management field after feeling the huge earthquake that led to the 2004 tsunami, as he undertook his chemical engineering studies in Medan, Indonesia. Risdi recalls the significant increases in casualties being announced, and as numbers ticked over into 100,000 souls he decided to determine his path towards helping communities affected by disaster.
It was in these early years that Risdi realised the increasing need for information technology and computer programming within disaster management, as he took on various roles within IT and database work, finding himself working on such tasks in Aceh during 2007 as the region continued with its reconstruction and recovery phases. After numerous roles, Risdi moved to Jakarta and joined Mercy Corps, finding himself involved with the Indonesian Response Team and engaged in more direct disaster response. “I found myself working up into management and coordination during this time” he remembers, “then also having the opportunity to study courses in Africa, Jordan, Singapore, and also the Emerging Leadership Programme through Portland University’s School of Business”.
As Risdi’s work became more focused towards IT leadership and coordination, he made a move to the AHA Centre within a year of finishing studies at Portland University. He highlights the significant difference between his early roles and more recently, in particular the direct field engagement that has changed over time. “With organisations like Mercy Corps we had direct engagement in disaster, as we were in the field and responding” Risdi says. “As the AHA Centre works at the regional level and coordinates response, we find ourselves more often within National Disaster Management Organisations, helping and supporting their work in responding directly to communities.” Risdi notes the difference in preparation and engagement – in particular the contrast between stress management in fieldwork as compared to diplomacy approaches required at a coordination level.
Risdi has, however, continued to be challenged and engaged in response as part of his work with the AHA Centre. As an ASEAN Emergency Response and Assessment Team (ASEAN-ERAT) member, Risdi has been deployed to disasters to support teams during disasters such as the 2018 Sulawesi earthquake and tsunami, the 2020 Jakarta floods, and also to engage with the International Search and Rescue Advisory Group (INSARAG) 2019 exercise in Thailand. While he understands his role has changed, Risdi does believe that “while my contribution may be small working on Information Communication Technology (ICT) from the office, it still supports and has a great impact to those in the field”.
Throughout his experience, Risdi has witnessed the growing importance of ICT for disaster management, and particularly as part of the ASEAN regional context. He highlights its importance, both through simple yet integral instances such as telecommunication access during response, alongside the utilisation of Big Data in detecting, warning and information dissemination systems. Part of Risdi’s current work is determining how to further support the ASEAN-ERAT responders with modern and resilient telecommunications, and this is an area that forms a key focus for the AHA Centre’s recently published ICT Roadmap. Risdi also highlights the ongoing identification of Big Data’s extended role in disaster management, through its utilisation across disaster analysis, disaster prediction, and then into prescription. Risdi finishes by stating that this type of ICT work is not only for the AHA Centre and the ERAT programme, but that “I also hope this work can be utilised and have a positive impact in the future for other humanitarian actors, as well as ASEAN communities themselves”.
Written : by : William Shea | Photo : AHA Centre
CONTINUING REGIONAL EFFORTS ON
BUILDING ASEAN-ERAT CAPACITY FOR RESPONSE
The AHA Centre has progressed significantly towards achieving the vision of its ASEAN Emergency Response and Assessment Team (ASEAN-ERAT) Transformation Plan, that was developed back in 2015. Aiming to strengthen ASEAN’s preparedness and response capacity – to support collective, fast, and reliable disaster responses in accordance with humanitarian standards – the organisation is moving towards the finalisation of the ASEAN-ERAT Transformation Plan’s initial 5-year period.
Contributing to the overall realisation of the Transformation Plan, on 31 March 2020 the AHA Centre, supported by the Government of Japan through the Japan ASEAN Integration Fund (JAIF), successfully concluded a 4-year project titled “ASEAN-ERAT Transformation Project”. Based on project evaluation results, the AHA Centre made significant contributions to the outcomes of the Transformation Plan, including:
Establishing and conducting regular ASEAN-ERAT Advisory Group meetings and ASEAN-ERAT In-country Networks with 10 ASEAN Member States (AMS)
Developing an ASEAN-ERAT publication as part of the AHA Centre’s knowledge series, and circulating ASEAN-ERAT activities through the AHA Centre’s monthly bulletin
Updating ASEAN-ERAT Guidelines
Maintaining the Emergency Alerts system
Developing ASEAN-ERAT Manager Web and Mobile Applications
Establishing online course platform used to reinforce the delivery of face-to-face ASEAN-ERAT courses
Developing advance course curriculum and piloting the trainings; i.e. Rapid Needs Assessment, Information Management, Humanitarian Logistics, Humanitarian Civil-Military Coordination, and Early Recovery; that have increased the capacity of ASEAN-ERAT to provide technical assistance to AMS, including support during the early recovery phase
Conducting Training of Trainers (TOT) that have enabled the AHA Centre to gain support from graduates to conduct ASEAN-ERAT courses
Successfully establishing an operational support group with partners from Map Action, Télécoms Sans Frontières, and DHL, that has supported ASEAN-ERAT large-scale operations, such as during the 7,4M Earthquake in Palu, Indonesia
Successfully training 322 ASEAN-ERAT members from 10 AMS
Deploying trained ASEAN-ERAT members to actual emergencies and simulation exercises
With an array of natural disasters experienced over the last 12 years, the trained ASEAN-ERAT members were deployed to many disaster responses. Of the 28 ASEAN-ERAT deployments in the past 12 years, one of the most interesting experiences was deployment to the 2018 Central Sulawesi Earthquake and Tsunami, within which the AHA Centre deployed 28 members to reinforce the Indonesian NDMO with many support mechanisms including coordination and the facilitation of incoming relief assistance. Another unique mission was the ASEAN-ERAT response to human-induced disaster in Rakhine State, Myanmar. This mission was executed upon request from the Government of Myanmar, entrusting ASEAN-ERAT to conduct a preliminary needs assessment to identify areas of cooperation, that in turn could support the repatriation of displaced persons to Rakhine State.
Exercising inter-operability of ASEAN-ERAT and UNDAC during Central Sulawesi earthquake and tsunami in 2018, signifying better coordination and collaboration between the two.
Acknowledging tangible support from ASEAN-ERAT members, the AHA Centre aims to continue the ASEAN-ERAT capacity building programme supported by the JAIF, which will be undertaken through ASEAN-ERAT Phase 2 project entitled “Strengthening ASEAN’s Collective Response Capacity through the Enhancement of the Capacity Building of the Regional ASEAN-ERAT”. This will be further strengthened through support from the European Union as part of the “EU Support to AHA Centre” (EU SAHA) project. It will ensure that the AHA Centre can equip more ERAT members for disaster response by continuing the capacity building efforts, particularly on the roll-out of the advanced courses that were piloted in 2018 – 2019. Considering the situation of COVID-19 pandemic, all the advanced courses planned in 2020 are moved to 2021.
Written by : ASEAN-ERAT Project Management Team | Photo : AHA Centre