MONTHLY DISASTER REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
FEBRUARY 2020 | DISASTER MONITORING & ANALYSIS
(DMA) UNIT, AHA CENTRE
GENERAL REVIEW OF FEBRUARY 2020
The 21 disaster occurrences for the month of February 2020 was similar to the five-year average for the month (20). A majority of the recorded disasters were flood events in different regions across Indonesia, most of which occurred towards the end of February. A single flooding event in the Johor State in Malaysia was also recorded at the end of the month. Adding to this, four landslides were recorded to have occurred in Indonesia for this month, including in Bandung Regency in the second week, and three during the last week of the month in Tasikmalaya district, Bandongan district, and Magelang Regency. Based on this, significant differences related to five-year disaster impact averages were observed. This included a 95% increase in the number of affected people, more than double the amount of internally displaced people, and four times the number of damaged houses. There was, however, a 36% decrease in the number of casualties alongside no reports of injured and missing people.
According to reports by the Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), the presence of two tropical cyclones (TC) – TC Esther in Gulf of Carpentaria and TC Ferdinand in the Indian Ocean – influenced the heavy rainfall that caused flooding events. Accordingly, based on the Climate Forecast System (CFS) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), average precipitation in millimeters peaked twice for the month of February on the island of Java. The first peak occurred in the second week with the second at the end of the month, supporting the cause of the flooding that took place at the end of February. Additionally, based on the CFS (which assimilates ground, air, aircraft, and satellite observations) findings, maximum precipitation differences for the month of February 2020 compared to five-year average rainfall values reached an approximate increase of 100 millimetres.
Based on disaster comparisons, the number of flooding events are 13.33% higher than the five-year average. Despite this relatively low increase in numbers, there was a significant increase in figures related to impact of the disasters. The increase in the extent and severity of the impacts may be an indication of a changing climate. However, the efforts of Indonesia’s National Disaster Management Authority (BNPB), and measures implemented to curtail the impacts of disasters resulted in the decrease to numbers of casualties. Additionally, the dramatic increase in the number of damaged houses could further support the call for more climate change-adaptive and resilient structures in disaster-stricken regions.
SEASONAL OUTLOOK
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), enhanced chances of below-normal rainfall or drier conditions are expected over northern parts of Sumatra, Kalimantan, and Sulawesi, Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Singapore, Malaysia, and the southern regions of Myanmar, Thailand, Viet Nam, and of the Philippines for the March-May 2020 season. For regions south of the equator, the ASMC predicts above-normal rainfall or wetter conditions. Temperature-wise, most parts of the ASEAN region are expected to continue experiencing warmer conditions for the March-May 2020 period.
Haze outlook for the ASEAN region during March-May 2020 is expected to show increased hotspot activities due to drier conditions. A deterioration of haze situation is displayed for the Northern Mekong sub-region, according to the ASMC. The onset of increased rainfall is foreseen to subdue hotspot activities and improve the haze situation in the region. Lastly, the haze situation in the southern ASEAN region is expected to remain subdued, but localised hotspots may emerge during the occasional dry weather.
Continent as predicted by the models.
Data Sources: ASEAN Disaster Information Network, ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre
Written by : Keith Landicho and Lawrence Anthony Dimailig
DISCLAIMER
Disclaimer: AHA Centre’s estimation is based on data and information shared by National Disaster Management Organisations (NDMOs) and other relevant agencies from ASEAN Member States, international organisations and news agencies. Further information on each recorded-significant disaster, description and detail of data and information are available at: http://adinet.ahacentre.org/reports.
MONTHLY DISASTER REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
JANUARY 2020 | DISASTER MONITORING & ANALYSIS
(DMA) UNIT, AHA CENTRE
GENERAL REVIEW OF JANUARY 2020
A significant change in the number of disaster occurrences was observed for the month of January 2020, with a 56% decrease of all disasters in comparison to the previous five-year average, and a majority of registered disasters were flood events. All but one of the recorded disasters took place in Indonesia. There were, however, significant increases compared to five-year averages of affected people (13% increase), internally displaced people (86%), and damaged houses (8%), due primarily to high monsoon activity in the region, with winds exhibiting convergence patterns (leading to formation of clouds and eventually precipitation) according to the Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG). Overall, the number of occurrences decreased, but the disasters affected more people compared to the previous five-year averages.
There was also a significant increase in the number of casualties for the month of January, up 63% compared to the five-year average, with the number of injuries also increasing by 32%, despite the life-saving mechanisms of the ASEAN Member States being effectively put into place. Such increased disaster severity may be an indication of the effects of a changing climate. In terms of geophysical hazards, the phreatic eruption of the Taal Volcano in the Philippines on January 12 spewed ash across Metro Manila, and the Northern, Central, and Southern Luzon regions, causing widespread cancellations of classes, work, and flights, and significant losses for the agricultural sector (US$63 million). The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) issued an Alert Level 4 (out of five levels), or hazardous eruption possible within hours to days, due to the volcanic activity. On 26 January, decreased volcanic activities prompted PHIVOLCS to downgrade that alert level. Taal Volcano’s eruption contributed significantly to the number of displaced people in this month’s figures, with an estimated 459,300 people living within the volcano’s 14-kilometer danger zone.
SEASONAL OUTLOOK
The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) expects drier conditions for the month of February over Sumatra, Peninsular Malaysia and northern parts of Borneo and the Philippines. These conditions are expected to last until the end of March and extend to some parts of Thailand. However, wetter conditions are expected with increasing chances over the southeastern part of the maritime continent in the following months, which are expected to ease in the last week of March.
For temperature conditions, on one hand, the ASMC expects warmer conditions over much of the maritime continent and shall progressively affect parts of Mainland Southeast Asia in the last week of March. On the other hand, colder conditions are expected to occur and last until the third week of February over northeastern parts of the northern ASEAN region.
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), characterised by an eastward spread of large regions of enhanced and suppressed tropical rainfall, is expected to be in Phase 7 of 8 towards the end of January 2020. This means the enhanced rainfall will continue to move eastward into the western Pacific and eventually dissipate in the central Pacific. There are signs of a weak MJO emerging in the Maritime Continent in mid-February, but is forecasted to weaken. This weak MJO is also forecasted to reemerge over the Indian Ocean towards the end of March. This development may contribute to wetter conditions in the Southern Maritime Continent as predicted by the models.
Data Sources: ASEAN Disaster Information Network, ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre
Written by : Keith Landicho and Lawrence Anthony Dimailig
DISCLAIMER
Disclaimer: AHA Centre’s estimation is based on data and information shared by National Disaster Management Organisations (NDMOs) and other relevant agencies from ASEAN Member States, international organisations and news agencies. Further information on each recorded-significant disaster, description and detail of data and information are available at: http://adinet.ahacentre.org/reports.
THE AHA CENTRE AND EUROPEAN UNION ANNOUNCE SUPPORT FOR
HUMANITARIAN AND EMERGENCY RESPONSE IN ASEAN
To support ASEAN endeavours to enhance disaster response capacity, in 2020 the European Union (EU) and the AHA Centre launched a EUR 10 million programme supporting the AHA Centre’s work, named the “Integrated Programme in Enhancing the Capacity of AHA Centre and ASEAN Emergency Response Mechanisms”, or in short known as the EU-SAHA programme. This new initiative aims to strengthen the capacity and sustainability of the AHA Centre to achieve operational excellence in disaster monitoring and emergency response, as well as enhance mechanisms for ASEAN leadership to ‘respond as one’ through excellence and innovation in disaster management.
In the wake of the Central Sulawesi earthquake and tsunami in Indonesia, the AHA Centre was among the first humanitarian agencies that arrived on the ground to provide humanitarian assistance. The AHA Centre highlighted its unwavering commitment in assisting ASEAN Member States (AMS), and again proved instrumental in assisting the Indonesian Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) in coordinating humanitarian aid by utilising available ASEAN mechanisms. The project is expected to also leverage the expertise of the EU’s Emergency Response Coordination Center (ERCC), which operates under the EU’s Civil Protection Mechanism and has a similar scope of work in the EU as the AHA Center does in ASEAN.
The Executive Director of the AHA Centre, Ms Adelina Kamal, expressed her appreciation for the launch of the programme. “The EU SAHA programme will enable the AHA Centre to strengthen the entire spectrum of the ASEAN Declaration on One ASEAN One Response, adopted by the ASEAN Leaders in September 2016. It will enable the AHA Centre to further enhance our capacity to facilitate ASEAN’s collective response to large-scale disasters inside the region, maximising further our coordination potentials as shown in multiple responses in 2018. Not only that, the EU SAHA will also allow us to study what it takes to facilitate collective response outside the region and learn from the EU, who has done it, through comparative studies and knowledge exchange”.
The Secretary-General of ASEAN, Dato Lim Jock Hoi, recognised EU’s support, stating that “As an important partner of ASEAN, the European Union’s contribution to the AHA Centre will play a pivotal role in advancing ASEAN closer towards realising its vision as a global leader in disaster management. By supporting ASEAN’s hallmark emergency response mechanism, the European Union ensures the continued development of disaster management assets and capacities at the regional and national levels in the ASEAN region”.
It is the AHA Centre’s hope that through this new programme, the ASEAN region will become more resilient and more proactive in disaster mitigation and prevention. Much has been achieved to this point, but efforts must be sustained to realise the outcomes of the ASEAN Vision 2025 on Disaster Management. The ASEAN region is one of the most disaster-prone regions in the world, having experienced more than 50% of overall global disaster mortalities during the period of 2004-2014. The aim of the new EU programme is to substantially reduce disaster losses in lives and in the economic, social, physical and environmental assets of ASEAN Member States. It also aims to support joint responses to disaster emergencies through concerted national efforts, and intensified regional and international cooperation.
Speaking after signing of the agreement at the ASEAN Secretariat on January 27, the EU Ambassador to ASEAN, Igor Driesmans, stated that no countries should overlook the importance of concerted and coordinated disaster response. He highlighted that the regional approach to dealing with disaster has provided ASEAN greater strength to handle unprecedented calamities, as it can utilise regional pool of Member States’ expertise and assets – managed by the AHA Centre. The Ambassador said that this is not only a workable model, but also a mechanism to deal with the transboundary nature of the climate-induced disaster. This requires strong collaboration and partnership among Member States, similar to European nations under the EU Civil Protection Mechanism (EU-CPM), which is shepherded by their Emergency Response Coordinating Centre (ERCC), an entity displaying the same value and design as the AHA Centre.
Written by : Ina Rachmawati and Dipo Summa | Photo Credit : AHA Centre
MR RAY SHIRKHODAI
Mr Ray Shirkhodai has spent the last 20 years of his career developing science and technology for disaster reduction. He is currently the Executive Director of the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) – a global science and technology centre for disaster risk reduction and intelligence managed by the University of Hawaii – and a steady partner of the AHA Centre since its early years. Ray was the primary architect of DisasterAWARE, PDC’s advanced multi-hazard early warning and decision support platform, powering PDC’s mobile and internet applications, as well as AHA Centre’s Disaster Monitoring and Response System (DMRS). Ray has also led PDC’s support of major international disaster relief operations both at home and abroad. With a background in Artificial Intelligence and Computer Science, he has been at the forefront of disaster-related technology since joining the PDC in 2002, and after a career in software engineering dating back to the 1980’s.
Originally serving as Chief Information Officer (CIO,) and then Chief Operating Officer (COO), Ray became the Executive Director of PDC in 2007, by which time he had already began his engagement with disaster management in the ASEAN region. He remembers those early days, including the 2004 launch of the ASEAN Regional Programme on Disaster Management (ARPDM), when pledging PDC’s partnership to the regional disaster risk reduction (DRR) efforts. “My personal engagements with ASEAN have included direct involvement with the 10-member NDMO ICT Gap analysis, establishing the Disaster Information Sharing and Communications Network (DISCNet), the first AADMER Strategic Work Programme 2010-2015, Interim AHA Centre ICT Gap Analysis and proposed position staffing, and of course, DMRS deployments, just to name few,” Ray said.
Ray also highlights partnerships with individual nations as important, citing PDC collaborations and agreements as an integral part of the overall regional approach. “We’ve had decade-long partnerships in DRR with many of the Member States, including DisasterAWARE deployments in Thailand (2006-2008), Viet Nam (2012-2017), Indonesia (2014-2019), along with other risk assessments and DRR-related engagements with those Member States as well as with Myanmar and the Philippines. We’ve also collaborated very closely with Singapore to deliver various trainings, and build DRR capacity.”
He also highlights current ongoing programmes with ASEAN, including enhancing DMRS and Information Communication Technology (ICT) adoption and DRR application usage in the region, working both directly with Member States, as well as with ASEAN through the ASEAN Committee on Disaster Management (ACDM) and the AHA Centre.
Ray also has a lot to say regarding the impressive advances he has seen in the ASEAN region – both within individual Member States and the region as a whole. “ASEAN and its Member States have made significant individual (national) and collective (regional) strides in information technology adoptions related to DRR within a relatively short 15-year timeframe” he said. “The ratification of AADMER, along with strategic development plans have helped the nations and the region to steadily invest in, and improve usage of new technologies for DRR purposes.”
When questioned regarding the importance of ICT for DRR, Ray is strong and passionate in response.
“Technology can help us save more lives, faster. I believe that the trends for adoption and utilisation of AI and ICT are destined to accelerate with the commoditisation of ICT and related services brought about by cloud-computing” he said. “It is therefore, most important to invest in the development of DRR applications and content to influence the effectiveness of DRR policies and practices within the region.”
Written : by William Shea : | Photo : AHA Centre