HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL HAZARDS:
ASEAN’S MOST FREQUENT NATURAL PHENOMENA
Living in Southeast Asia, not a week goes by without hearing of an earthquake, flood, tornado, or other natural hazard occurring somewhere in the region. Natural hazards stem from sources ranging from geological, meteorological, hydrological to oceanic, among others. Sometimes, these hazards act in combination, resulting in the phenomena known as hydro-meteorological hazards.
The United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) defines hydro-meteorological hazards as “the process or phenomenon of atmospheric, hydrological, or oceanographic nature that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihoods and services, social and economic disruption, or environmental damage”. They account for over 75% of damages related to disasters, including casualties, economic losses, infrastructure damage, and disruption to everyday life.
These types of hazards include tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes), floods (and flash floods), drought, thunderstorms, coastal storm surges, and heatwaves. Hydro-meteorological hazards can also influence other risks such as landslides, wildfires, and epidemics.
The ASEAN region is especially prone to hydro-meteorological phenomena due to its geographic setting and climate. In 2021 alone, the ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet) recorded that out of the 1,406 disasters that occurred in the ASEAN region, 99% were classified as hydro-meteorological in nature. One of the worst hydro-meteorological hazards to hit Southeast Asia in the last decade is Typhoon Haiyan (known as Yolanda in the Philippines), which struck on 8 November 2013. It is largely considered to be one of the strongest typhoons ever recorded in world history, with wind gusts reaching up to 320 km/hour. It affected over 16 million people, with 6,300 deaths, 1,000 missing persons, and 28,000 injuries recorded in the aftermath.
Though hydro-meteorological hazards have always been around, the ongoing effects of climate change are expected to exacerbate disasters associated with these hazards. Rising heat in the atmosphere and warmer ocean surface temperatures cause changes in weather patterns, disrupting the delicate balance of nature. Droughts become longer and more intense, affecting crop yields and the economies of farming communities. Meanwhile, tropical storms grow larger and fiercer, and rising sea levels erode coastlines, threatening the lives and livelihoods of coastal populations. Even densely populated urban communities are not exempt from the risks, as severe flooding can result in damage to infrastructure and financial loss.
Though the intensifying frequency and severity of hydro-meteorological hazards pose a threat to ASEAN countries, hydro-meteorological hazards can often be anticipated and monitored through weather forecasting, meaning that governments and communities have the chance to prepare, respond, and even evacuate accordingly. Having early warning systems in place can greatly increase the odds of survival and lessen the human and economic impact of hydro-meteorological hazards.
Adequate preparation and protective measures can be taken to prevent such hazards from turning into severe disasters. These include constructing typhoon-resistant structures and housing, improving infrastructures to better absorb and retain water during heavy rains or storms, planting mangroves along shorelines to protect coastal areas from storm surges and winds, and educating communities on how to respond during the event of a hazard, in order to prevent human casualties. Additionally, governments, the private sector, and the public must all actively participate in climate change mitigation to limit global warming and reduce its effects on the climate.
At the end of the day, learning and adapting to live alongside the natural hazards will be the key to developing ASEAN into a robust and resilient region.
Sources:
• https://www.unisdr.org/files/7817_UNISDRTerminologyEnglish.pdf
• https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/82732768.pdf
• AHA Centre, Disaster by the Numbers 2021
• https://ahacentre.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/WeatheringThePerfectStormSecondEdition.compressed.pdf
• https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-are-some-signs-climate-change
Written by: Gladys Respati
MONTHLY DISASTER REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
DECEMBER 2021 | DISASTER MONITORING & ANALYSIS
(DMA) UNIT, AHA CENTRE
GENERAL REVIEW OF DECEMBER 2021
For the month of December 2021, a total of 204 disasters were reported. The ASEAN Member States that were affected are Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. Most of the disasters (88.73%) occurred in Indonesia but the highest number of affected people were reported for the Philippines at more than 8 million. The number of affected persons from the Philippines comprised the majority of the tally for the month of December (87.36%) and is attributed with the developments of Tropical Cyclone RAI. The share of the disaster-affected people for the other ASEAN Member States are as follows: (1) Indonesia-8.6%, (2) Malaysia-0.71%, (3) Myanmar-0.001%, (4) Thailand-0.15%, and (5) Viet Nam-%. December 2021 saw disasters affecting 1,410 per 100,000 people* and displacing 117 per 100,000 people* in the region, which were 8 times and 28 times higher respectively compared with the previous month. December 2021 accounts for 14.51% of the total disasters (1,406), 71.69% of the total cost of damages (814.8 Million USD), and 69.83% of the total cost of assistance provided (21.1 Million USD) reported so far in the current year.
Most of the disasters that have occurred in December 2021 are floods (74.02%) and is consistently the most recorded type of disaster for December of the previous year and December on a five-year average (2016-2020). December 2021 saw disasters caused by hydrometeorological hazards (flood, rain-induced landslides, storm, winds) affecting 99.68% of the total affected persons for the month. The reported disasters in the region for December 2021 in comparison to the historical data (average for December 2016-2020) indicates that there were 7.5x more reported disasters; 3.4x more people affected; 4.6x more people displaced; 15.7x more houses affected to some extent; 5.8x more lives lost; 16.2x more people suffering injuries; and lastly, 10.5x more people that have gone missing.
*Computed based on 2020 population data from worldometers.com
ANALYSIS
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), compared to the average value from 2001-2020, during December 2021, rainfall was above-average over coastal central parts of Viet Nam, Peninsular Malaysia, and the southern half of the Philippines. The largest positive anomalies (wetter conditions) were detected over central Philippines and Peninsular Malaysia (due to Super Typhoon RAI and Tropical Depression 29W respectively, which made landfall in mid-December), for both satellite-derived rainfall estimates datasets (GSMaP-NRT and CMORPH-Blended). As expected, the start of the dry season for the northern ASEAN region resulted in negligible rainfall anomalies for the rest of Mainland Southeast Asia, where only four disasters caused by floods were reported. Meanwhile, for the equatorial ASEAN region, a mix of above- and below-average rainfalls were observed and accordingly, a number of hydrometeorological disasters were reported.
SEASONAL OUTLOOK
In the month of December 2021, the Northeast Monsoon was established over a majority of the ASEAN region and is expected to persist until late March 2022. It is during this period that inter-monsoon conditions will typically start to develop. Climatologically, the northern ASEAN region experiences its traditional dry season during the period with the prevailing low-level winds blowing from the northeast or east. Wet conditions will typically prevail over the southern ASEAN region as the monsoon rain band progresses south of the equator. This is seen to occur during the beginning of the outlook period before becoming drier and occasionally windy. This happens as the region experiences the dry phase of the Northeast Monsoon starting late January to early March. The prevailing low-level winds over the southern ASEAN region are expected to blow from the north or northwest. Hydrometeorological disasters are likely as the monsoon rain band moves towards the south of the equator and are less likely for the northern ASEAN region and the southern ASEAN region in the coming weeks during the transition into the dry phase of the Northeast Monsoon.
In the coming period (January to March 2022), there is an increased chance of above-normal rainfall over eastern parts of the Maritime Continent and the Malay Peninsula. La Niña conditions are present. Models are predicting weak to moderate La Niña conditions until March-April 2022, after which the conditions are predicted to return to neutral during April-June 2022. Warmer-than-usual temperature is expected for much of the Maritime Continent (except the Malay Peninsula where near-normal temperature is predicted) and Myanmar during JFM 2022.
Hotspot activities and smoke haze situation are seen to intensify especially in northern parts of Myanmar as the traditional dry season over the northern ASEAN region progresses. Subdued hotspot activities are expected in the southern ASEAN region due to the current wet conditions, but localised hotspots can still occur occasionally during the transition to the dry phase of the Northeast Monsoon.
*Note from ASMC: The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general and based on the latest runs from models provided by the SEA RCC-Network LRF node. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.
Sources: ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet), ASEAN Disaster Monitoring and Response System (DMRS), ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) – Indonesia, Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) – Malaysia, Department of Disaster Management (DDM) – Myanmar, National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) – Philippines, Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) – Thailand, Viet Nam Disaster Management Authority (VNDMA) – Viet Nam, Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG) – Indonesia, Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) – Indonesia, Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH) – Myanmar, Philippine Institute for Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) – Philippines, Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) – Philippines
Written by : Keith Paolo Landicho, Sadhu Zukhruf Janottama, Lawrence Anthony Dimailig
DISCLAIMER
The AHA Centre’s estimation is based on data and information shared by National Disaster Management Organisations (NDMOs) and other relevant agencies from ASEAN Member States, international organisations, and news agencies. Further information on each recorded significant disaster, description, and detail of data and information are available at: http://adinet.ahacentre.org/reports.
ASEAN STANDS IN SOLIDARITY
WITH THE TYPHOON-AFFECTED PEOPLE IN THE PHILIPPINES
On 16 December 2021, Typhoon Rai (known as Odette in the Philippines) made landfall on Siargao Island in southeastern Philippines, leaving a devastating trail of debris and human casualties in its wake. More than 3 million persons were affected by the disaster, resulting in the over 250 deaths while another 568 persons were injured and 47 reported missing.
The ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on disaster management (AHA Centre) immediately responded to the crisis by mobilising ASEAN relief items stockpiled at the Disaster Emergency Logistics System for ASEAN (DELSA) Satellite Warehouse in Camp Aguinaldo, Quezon City, the Philippines. This mobilisation aimed to augment the government’s ongoing efforts to help people affected by Typhoon Rai (Odette) in the Philippines.
A total of 541 shelter repair kits, 275 family tents, 5,000 family kits, 1,000 rolls of tarpaulin, 5,000 personal hygiene kits, and 1,000 kitchen sets were delivered with the support of the Government of Japan through the Japan-ASEAN Integration Fund (JAIF) and Direct Relief. Facilitated by the Office of the Civil Defense (OCD) of the Philippines, the ASEAN relief items were transported to the regions severely affected by Typhoon Rai (Odette), namely the provinces of Surigao, Cebu, and Bohol.
In the Letter of Condolences sent to Secretary of Foreign Affairs and Secretary of National Defense of the Philippines, Secretary-General (SG) of ASEAN Dato Lim Jock Hoi highlighted that the ASEAN stood ready to support the on-going humanitarian and disaster-relief efforts. SG Dato Lim stated that “I have strong confidence in the leadership of the Government of Philippines and the people’s resilience to bring about normalcy in the affected areas”.
Mr. Lee Yam Ming, Executive Director of the AHA Centre, conveyed the Centre’s deepest sympathies to those who had been affected by the disaster. “The AHA Centre has been monitoring the disaster situation in the Philippines since the last two weeks when several weather disturbances were first identified” he said. The Centre activates the Emergency Operations Centre (EOC) when receiving and gathering information about the potential impacts caused by weather disturbances.
He stated that the mobilisation of ASEAN relief items represented tangible ASEAN solidarity in the spirit of ‘One ASEAN, One Response’. The ASEAN relief items, he continued, demonstrated the tangible support from the ASEAN Member States to the typhoon-affected people in the Philippines.
The AHA Centre worked closely with the Office of Civil Defense of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (OCD – NDRRMC) in the Philippines, as well as ASEAN countries and partners in monitoring the situation and identifying potential regional support. An In-Country Liaison Team (ICLT) was also deployed to closely work with the Philippine government. “The AHA Centre will be closely monitoring the situation in the Philippines with the relevant stakeholders and be ready to provide necessary support,” he concluded.
Written by : Gladys Respati | Photo Credit: AHA Centre
INTERNSHIP STORY:
KIRAN MAULANA HUSNI
Becoming an intern at the AHA Centre was an unforgettable experience for me. During my three-month communications internship programme, I learned how the Centre manages disasters and provides humanitarian assistance in the region. I am certain that the knowledge I gained from the internship programme will be very useful in my future career development.
My name is Kiran Maroep Maulana Husni, I am 22 years old, a student at Telkom University, Indonesia, majoring in International ICT Business. I was born and raised in Tasikmalaya, West Java, Indonesia, but currently live in Serpong, Tangerang Selatan.
My journey as a communications intern at the AHA Centre started in June 2021 when I saw an internship advertised on the AHA Centre’s website. I thought it would be a good opportunity for me to gain experience working in a regional organisation. Realising that disaster management was a new field for me, I challenged myself to apply for that position. To be honest it felt like a gamble for me applying for an internship with an organisation and in a field with which I had no previous experience. Eventually, I submitted my application and waited for word back.
In July, I received an email from the AHA Centre asking me whether I was still interested in the programme, I replied, “Yes, definitely!” Long story short, I was invited to an online interview and a few weeks later I was told that I was hired as a communications intern and my starting date was 2nd August.
As a communications intern, under the supervision of Mr. Moch Syifa, the Communications Officer, my main responsibilities were assisting in conducting media monitoring and social media planning. Social media planning was not a new field for me as I had experience from my previous organisation. However, again, planning social media content on disaster-management issues was a big challenge. At the beginning, I had to conduct online research on disaster-management issues in ASEAN to broaden my knowledge. I learned many new specific and very technical terms during my research, which was a bit stressful.
Aside from assisting in social media planning and media monitoring, I also had the opportunity to join in several important events, such as the opening ceremony of Batch Seven of the AHA Centre Executive (ACE) Programme, the Fourth EU-ASEAN Cooperation and Scholarship Day, and other meetings with partners, consultants and suppliers. During the meetings, I learned a lot about how the Centre works together with other partners and stakeholders.
Managing communications, particularly for a regional organisation like the AHA Centre, is not easy. I discovered that mapping the audience is significant in order to develop strategies and content for social media. From the media monitoring activity, I learned that studying conversations on social media and in mainstream media was crucial to understanding whether our communications strategies were well implemented or needed some improvements.
Finally, I would like to thank the AHA Centre for giving me opportunities and presenting me with challenges during my internship programme, it has given me strength and widened my knowledge. Thank you Mr. Syifa, as my supervisor, for being patient as you accompanied me on my learning journey. The AHA Centre expanded my knowledge and experience, especially given that I was new to disaster management. I would recommend that other students also apply for internship programmes at the Centre, since they will gain a lot of precious knowledge.
Written by : Kiran Maulana Husni | Photo Credit: Doc. Kiran Husni