MONTHLY DISASTER REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
DECEMBER 2019 | DISASTER MONITORING & ANALYSIS
(DMA) UNIT, AHA CENTRE
GENERAL REVIEW OF DECEMBER 2019
December 2019 significantly shifted from the previous five-year average December disaster statistics, recording a higher number of occurrences, impact to population, and damage to houses, albeit with lower casualty rates. The number of disaster occurrences experienced a 61% increase compared to the previous five December periods, with flood events contributing the largest share. A majority of flooding events took place in Indonesia towards the end of the month when the country was experiencing strong impacts from the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Meanwhile, considerable deviations in the number of affected (168% increase from the five-year average) and displaced (187% increase from the five-year average) people and damaged houses (716% increase from the five-year average) were driven by Typhoons KAMMURI (equivalent to Category 4 hurricane at peak strength) and PHANFONE (equivalent to Category 2 hurricane at peak strength) hitting the Philippines within a three week timeframe. Combined, both typhoons are estimated to account for 79% of affected people figures, 55% of displaced people, and 97% of damaged houses reported in the last month of 2019.
On the other hand, there were notable decreases in casualty figures compared with the five-year average – with 60% decrease in dead, 30% decrease in injured, and 84% decrease in missing people. This suggests that in spite of extensive disaster impact this month, life-saving mechanisms in ASEAN Member States were effectively implemented. In terms of geophysical hazards, there were 24 recorded earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 and above, one of which was a magnitude 6.9 earthquake in the Southern Philippines, affecting hundreds of thousands of people, and contributing to more than a quarter of the displacement figures.
SEASONAL OUTLOOK
The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) expects the Northeast Monsoon to prevail over the region until late March to early April, before transitioning towards the inter-monsoon phase. Traditionally, the Northeast Monsoon results in a dry season in the northern ASEAN region, while the rainy season persists in the southern parts of the region. In terms of main weather and climate drivers in the region, both El Niño Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole systems are expected to be in neutral phase for the next few months, and there are signs of weakening Madden-Julian Oscillation over the coming weeks.
Above-average temperatures over most parts of the ASEAN region for the next few months is predicted by global weather and climate prediction models, with moderate to high probability of this happening. Alongside this, below-average rainfall is predicted over Myanmar and the Philippines, while there is a higher chance of above-normal rainfall around the Java Sea area and the eastern archipelago of Indonesia, which may result in flooding.
Data Sources: ASEAN Disaster Information Network, ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre
Written by : Lawrence Anthony Dimailig and Shahasrakiranna
DISCLAIMER
Disclaimer: AHA Centre’s estimation is based on data and information shared by National Disaster Management Organisations (NDMOs) and other relevant agencies from ASEAN Member States, international organisations and news agencies. Further information on each recorded-significant disaster, description and detail of data and information are available at: http://adinet.ahacentre.org/reports.
MONTHLY DISASTER REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
NOVEMBER 2019 | DISASTER MONITORING & ANALYSIS
(DMA) UNIT, AHA CENTRE
GENERAL REVIEW OF NOVEMBER 2019
The number of disaster occurrences during November 2019 was only slightly above 50% of the previous five-year average. November is the usually the month that sees the beginning of the Northeast Monsoon, bringing more rains, especially to the southern part of the ASEAN region. However, this year the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has affected several parts of the region resulting in less rain. This is reflected by significant decreases in flooding events for the period – and the year in general – particularly in Indonesia.
The number of affected and displaced persons during the month of November also only reached about 15% and 26% compared to the previous five-year November average, while the number of damaged houses was also less than 20%. Of note is also that during the last five years, two major events (namely as Typhoon Hagupit in 2014 and Typhoon Damrey in 2017) affected more than 8 million people, and displaced more than 500,000. Most of the disasters that occurred in November 2019 were registered as minor to moderate, including Typhoon Nakri, which affected the Philippines and Viet Nam in early November, and several earthquakes in Indonesia, the Philippines, and the border of Lao PDR and Thailand. The overall decreased impact of disasters could be related to both the amount and scale of actual disasters, and also the national capacity of ASEAN Member States to respond internally.
SEASONAL OUTLOOK
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), the transition to Northeast Monsoon season began in mid-November. During this period, the northern ASEAN region typically experiences dry conditions, while the southern ASEAN region experiences rainy weather. With a surge of cool air from the northern Asian landmass expected to blow toward the Equatorial Southeast Asia region, the Mekong sub-region, South China Sea, and the surrounding areas (including Peninsular Malaysia and parts of Sumatra) can expect cooler temperatures during the outlook period. In contrast, warm conditions are forecast over the Indonesian archipelago around the Java Sea region. There is a high likelihood of above-average temperatures over most parts of the region during the December 2019 until February 2020.
In terms of rainfall outlook, there are no clear trends for the December 2019 to February 2020 season, but there is an increased chance of below-average rainfall over most parts of the region south of the equator who may experience drier-than-normal conditions in December 2019. Wetter conditions are expected over the western Maritime Continent, including central Sumatra, Peninsular Malaysia, Singapore and parts of western Borneo. Likewise, in December 2019, the Mekong sub-region and the eastern Indonesian archipelago can expect a gradual increase in hotspot activities as the dry season sets in. Based on past trends, an escalation of hotspot activities can be expected in late January and February, particularly over Thailand and Cambodia. Hotspot activities in the southern ASEAN region are expected to remain generally subdued, however isolated hotspots may emerge in Sumatra, Kalimantan and Malaysia during periods of dry weather, especially in February. Generally, above-average temperatures are likely over most parts of Southeast Asia from December 2019 to February 2020. Meanwhile, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) monitoring system remains in “Neutral” state, and model outlooks from international centres are predicting sea surface temperature anomalies to remain at this status until early 2020.
Data Sources: ASEAN Disaster Information Network, ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre
Written by : Lawrence Anthony Dimailig and Shahasrakiranna
DISCLAIMER
Disclaimer: AHA Centre’s estimation is based on data and information shared by National Disaster Management Organisations (NDMOs) and other relevant agencies from ASEAN Member States, international organisations and news agencies. Further information on each recorded-significant disaster, description and detail of data and information are available at: http://adinet.ahacentre.org/reports.
8th ANNIVERSARY OF THE AHA CENTRE – RETHINKING OUR PATH
To celebrate the eight-year journey since the establishment of the AHA Centre, the Strategic Thematic Forum – Rethinking AHA Centre was undertaken from 18-22 of November 2019 in Jakarta, Indonesia. A forum for reflecting on successes and mapping the path forward, event also included the Workshop on Management of International Assistance, and the Partners Dialogue – Celebrating Partnership.
The Strategic Thematic Forum – Rethinking AHA Centre (held on 18-19 November, 2019) was opened by H.E. Michael Tene, Deputy Secretary-General of ASEAN for Community and Corporate Affairs, who reminded us that when thinking ahead, we must also align with ASEAN’s broader vision. During this exercise, regional and global technical experts in the fields of conflict, Disaster Risk Reduction and pandemics, along with representatives from ASEAN Member States, the ASEAN Secretariat and the AHA Centre, were brought together for technical discussions aimed at providing insight and assessing the feasibility of engaging in new disaster management elements beyond the AHA Centre’s existing scope of natural disasters. The forum included over 60 participants, with representatives coming from National Disaster Management Organisations and Ministries of Foreign Affairs, the ASEAN Secretariat, subject matter experts and panellists, AHA Centre staff, and other facilitators and observers. The forum actively promoted discussion through both group work and panel discussions, encouraging sharing of open opinions in all discussion areas. The Strategic Thematic Forum was supported by UK Mission to ASEAN.
WORKSHOP ON MANAGEMENT OF INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE
Day three of the event began with the Workshop on Management of International Assistance, which was co- organised by the AHA Centre and the International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) Asia Pacific, with support from the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC). The workshop’s aim was to strengthen the coordination of regional and international assistance during humanitarian emergency response, including methodologies, procedures and tools. It also aims to improve preparedness capacity of ASEAN Member States, by identifying areas of improvements in the management of incoming regional and international assistance during emergency response, and to improve the capacity of the AHA Centre as the primary regional coordinating agency in managing offers of regional and international assistance for affected Member States during emergency response.
The workshop was conducted throughout two days from 20 to 21 November 2019, with participants from National Disaster Management Organisations (NDMOs) of the ASEAN Member States, IFRC and representatives from National Societies in Southeast Asia, the AHA Centre and other key stakeholders. The workshop was officially opened by the AHA Centre’s Executive Director Ms Adelina Kamal, Head of IFRC Country Office in Myanmar, Mr Joy Singhal, Mr Ky Anh Nguyen, ASEAN Secretariat Director of Sustainable Development, and Mr Michael Cottier, Deputy Head of Mission Embassy of Switzerland in Indonesia. A keynote speech was delivered by Mr Said Faisal, the Former Executive Director of the AHA Centre who was also the Deputy of BRR for Aceh and Nias responsible for the implementation of post-tsunami rehabilitation and reconstruction.
PARTNERS DIALOGUE: CELEBRATING PARTNERSHIP
The week-long strategic thematic forum ended with the Partners Dialogue: Celebrating Partnership event. The Partners Dialogue was used as an opportunity to share information on the work of the AHA Centre, its core achievements over the past 8 years, and share key discussions and findings regarding its proposed future direction. The activity invited all the AHA Centre’s partners from the past eight years to share their insights that can be used to help expand the Centre’s work for the next five years. This was the first time the AHA Centre brought together all its donors and strategic and operational partners together in one event to discuss the AHA Centre’s work, achievements, core business, mandate and strategy. The Forum was attended by 66 participants including representatives from ASEAN Dialogue Partners, strategic and operational partners, AHA Centre staff, ASEAN Secretariat, along with several supporters and observers.
Written by : Ina Rachmawati | Photo Credit : AHA Centre
ALISTAIR COOK
Alistair Cook is one of the ASEAN region’s leading academics in the disaster management field, and has been engaged with the AHA Centre and its work not long often the organisation was founded during 2011. He currently sits as a senior fellow and coordinator of the humanitarian assistance and disaster relief programme at the Centre for Non-Traditional Security (NTS Centre) at S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.
As Alistair explains, “this basically means i am in a team of five researchers that focus on humanitarian affairs in the Asia-Pacific, tracking longer-term trends, understanding localised contexts, and reflecting on past experiences to inform policymaking today and planning for the future”.
His journey to his current situation is full of experience, with Alistair arriving in Singapore in July 2009 to take on a position as a post-doctoral fellow on the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Fund Asia Security Initiative at RSIS. “At that time, the MacArthur Foundation had selected RSIS, through the leadership of the NTS Centre, as a core institution to head and lead research in Cluster 3 on Internal Challenges in 2009” Alistair explains. Prior to that, Alistair completed his PhD studies at the University of Melbourne, Australia, focused on the emergence of regional humanitarian norms in the Southeast Asian region.
When asked about his interest in researching non-traditional security issues, Alistair highlights regional disaster management mechanisms as of increasing importance. “Non-traditional security threats are issues that pose challenges to societal wellbeing, yet have varied levels of interest by decision-makers in governments and non-governmental actors compared to higher profile security issues like interstate conflict, terrorism and nuclear proliferation” Alistair tells us. He continues to explain that such NTS issues affect more people, and pose longer-term challenges to states and societies. “This is particularly important in Southeast Asia, where countries in the region face natural hazards as well as internal conflicts that threaten the safety and security of people and states” he says. Alistair then continues to explain the context of disaster management and emergency response as policy issue areas that States and societies in Southeast Asia can cooperate on for the mutual benefit of the entire region and its people. “This area of cooperation provides policymakers with insight into developing people-centric and whole-of-society approaches, and through my academic research and reflection I hope to offer insights and constructively contribute to this policy area.
Alistair also talks about the AHA Centre’s role in the region, and how he sees it into the future. “I think AHA Centre knows its strengths and is building upon them, however there is still work to be done on communicating to others on what this role is” he explains. “I imagine that stronger linkages to other relevant entities in the international community and at the sub-national level will be growth areas as we move forward to implementing the ASEAN Vision 2025 on Disaster Management.”
Finally, Alistair also highlights the future for increasing interaction between the scientific sector and decision-makers in disaster management, identifying the need for balance and understanding the value of ‘slow-burn’ research activities. “If we’re not able to take a step back and reflect on the whole picture, then it will ultimately affect our ability to be relevant and offer insights from our research” he reminds us. Alistair states that while sometimes academics are able to offer more immediate observations, their research space is an area worth protecting to allow for reflection and critical engagement with the actions, directions and trends emerging in the region over longer periods of time.
“For humanitarian affairs this is all the more important” he says, “as we’re often in a fast-paced environment with relatively little time spent to reflect on the actions and direction of the sector”.
Written by William Shea : | Photo : AHA Centre