MONTHLY DISASTER REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
OCTOBER 2019 | DISASTER MONITORING & ANALYSIS
(DMA) UNIT, AHA CENTRE
GENERAL REVIEW OF OCTOBER 2019
During the month of October 2019 there were 11 reported disaster events in the ASEAN region, which registers 31% lower than the average of disaster occurrences for October over the previous five years (16). There were only 3 types of disaster events recorded in October 2019 (flood, landslide and storm), compared to 7 types recorded in the last five years for the same period. For the last five years there have been reports of drought, landslide, volcanic activity and wind events, however such disaster types were not recorded for October 2019. Also of note during this period were the comparatively low numbers of displaced, dead and injured persons, as well as damaged houses, despite the impact of the series of earthquakes that occurred in Cotabato province, southern Philippines. Three strong earthquakes with a magnitude above 6.0 rocked the province during October 2019, which aside from initial damage, also prolonged the local population’s displacement, with a majority damage experienced by residential homes (95% of the total damaged infrastructures). Earthquakes in Cotabato also claimed 24 lives from the total recorded 36 deaths for the month.
In general, this period has been dominated by hydro-meteorological events for the last five years, primarily by floods (51%) that usually affected and displaced population. This pattern is related to the tropical cyclone season in the Pacific, which brings above- normal rainfall to flood-prone areas in Southeast Asia. This was the case during October 2019, with seven of the 11 reported disasters related to flooding.
In terms of geological hazards, there were 34 seismic activities with a magnitude of 5.0 and above that occurred within October 2019, with 24 events experienced in Indonesia (BMKG), and 10 in the Philippines (PHIVOLCS) – including the three destructive earthquakes in Cotabato province. There were also three volcanic activities monitored in Indonesia, although all were categorised as Level II alert, and posed no danger to the population.
SEASONAL OUTLOOK
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), the inter-monsoon period usually transitions into the Northeast Monsoon season during November or early December. The Northeast Monsoon season will bring generally dry conditions to the northern ASEAN region, with rain to the southern ASEAN region. While rainy conditions over most of the equatorial and southern ASEAN region are expected in the next three months (November 2019 to January 2020), the rainfall is forecast to be below-average, due to the positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Amidst the dry conditions in the northern ASEAN region, there is an increased likelihood for above-average rainfall for the northernmost parts (northern parts of Laos, Myanmar and Viet Nam).
For the next 3 months the ASMC also forecasts above-average temperatures for most parts of the ASEAN region, and this may also contribute to isolated hotspot activities in the southern ASEAN region during November 2019. In terms of El Niño and La Niña, the current state remains in neutral condition, and is forecast to remain as such for the rest of 2019 and into early 2020.
Data Sources: ASEAN Disaster Information Network, ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre
Written by : Lawrence Anthony Dimailig, Shahasrakiranna, Lawrence Aporto, and Justin Chin Jin Jie
DISCLAIMER
Disclaimer: AHA Centre’s estimation is based on data and information shared by National Disaster Management Organisations (NDMOs) and other relevant agencies from ASEAN Member States, international organisations and news agencies. Further information on each recorded-significant disaster, description and detail of data and information are available at: http://adinet.ahacentre.org/reports.
11TH MEETING OF THE GOVERNING BOARD OF THE AHA CENTRE
October the 2nd 2019 saw the 11th Meeting of the Governing Board of the AHA Centre take place in Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar, which was followed by the 7th ASEAN Ministerial Meeting on Disaster Management (AMMDM) and the 8th Meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response (AADMER) on October 4th. To round of the busy schedule, the Governing Board convened back-to-back with the 35th Meeting of the ASEAN Committee on Disaster Management (ACDM) and the 12th Meeting of the ASEAN Joint Task Force to Promote Synergy with Other Relevant ASEAN Bodies on Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief – all of which took place between 1 – 3 of October.
The Governing Board received an update from the AHA Centre regarding a range of activities and programmes that had taken place throughout the previous period, including updates on such things as preparations for the 2020 ASEAN Regional Disaster Emergency Response Simulation Exercise (ARDEX-2020) with the Philippines, implementation of Level 2 ASEAN Emergency Response and Assessment Team (ASEAN-ERAT) courses, and the development of the ICT Roadmap on Disaster Management for 2025 and Beyond. The Governing Board also received updates on the development and launching of the Disaster Emergency Logistics System of ASEAN (DELSA) Satellite Warehouses – in both the Philippines and Thailand – that took place during the middle of 2019.
Of particular note to the Governing Board was the ongoing ASEAN Village recovery project, implemented by the AHA Centre in Palu, Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. This project has utilised generous financial support from Brunei Darussalam and the Philippines to support communities affected by the earthquake, tsunami and liquefaction disasters that struck the region in September 2018. The AHA Centre also appreciated support from the Government of Australia to strengthen the project’s management, and highlighted the potential of further support arriving from other parties.
The Governing Board also encompassed and afforded support to the AHA Centre’s plan to – as part of its 8th anniversary – conduct a visioning exercise to re-think how the AHA Centre can further enhance its services to support ASEAN as the primary regional coordinating agency on disaster management and emergency response. The effort would include workshops to determine if AHA Centre could contribute towards the provision of humanitarian assistance during human-induced disasters. The Governing Board maintained that the AHA Centre must focus on its existing mandates through enhancing its core services in disaster management and emergency response, as well as ensuring synergy, adaptability and readiness of its systems, procedures and skills to potentially provide humanitarian assistance to other types of disasters.
The meeting also resulted in the Governing Board adopting the Financial Status of the AHA Centre, as well as the AHA Centre Budget for 2020. Recent successful external audits were also highlighted, with the AHA Centre successfully completing such audits for all externally funded projects through the Japan-ASEAN Integration Fund (JAIF) as well as the AHA Centre Fund. Options for strengthening financing mechanism will also be explored, to help ensure the region is more self-reliant in the funding of emergency response operations and deployment of ASEAN-ERAT.
Written by : William Shea | Photo Credit : AHA Centre
HYDROMET DISASTERS
DROUGHT
Drought – formed by a significant, extended period of dry weather and limited rainfall – is particularly common across some of the ASEAN region’s drier areas. However, history has shown that drought is not confined to just those locations, with it known to impact communities and livelihoods from traditionally rainy climate, and can even be felt significantly outside of the directly-affected region.
ABOUT DROUGHT
Defining drought can be relatively complex, due to the fact that it is based not on a set precipitation figure – but compared to the average amount of precipitation experienced in a specific location. Therefore, a recognised drought situation in a tropical region (known for high rates of rainfall) may still be seen as very wet when compared to an arid location. However, we can simply determine that a drought is recognised when an area receives significantly less precipitation than it is used to, and does so over an extended period of time.
A key difference with drought, when compared to other disaster types, is its slow-onset nature. While earthquakes, floods and volcanoes strike quickly and often unexpectedly, drought slowly manifests over weeks and months of little-to-no rainfall. Sometimes bursts of rainfall may provide short-term relief, however the beginning and end of drought periods are usually only determined once the disaster has truly finished. Drought is most-often caused by changes or disruptions to the normal weather patterns (such as through winds or atmospheric circulation), with the increasing onset of climate change impact also linked to many drought situations.
IMPACTS OF DROUGHT IN ASEAN
It was recently reported by United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP) that droughts have impacted over 60 million ASEAN citizens throughout the past 30 years, with such estimations considered conservative due to traditional underreporting of drought based on its slow-onset context. Through a study produced to support ASEAN disaster risk reduction under the ASEAN-UN Joint Strategic Plan of Action on Disaster Management, significant increases in the future impact of drought in the region were highlighted, particularly with increased detrimental impact of climate change on ASEAN communities.
Key challenges faced by ASEAN when facing drought include the tendency of high impact on farming communities and regions, increasing vulnerability for those who rely on agriculture as their primary source of income – including in Lao PDR (61% of citizens), Viet Nam (41%), Indonesia (31%), Cambodia (27%) and the Philippines (26%). Alongside this, drought conditions also tend to impact most heavily on poorer communities, increasing inequality and therefore the risk of conflict. The report calls on starting interventions now to reduce the impacts of drought, protect the poorest communities and foster more harmonious societies.
RISK OF SECONDARY DISASTERS
Drought impact and conditions also increase significant risk of a range of secondary disasters – or disasters that occur due to conditions impacted by drought. Flooding can increase in risk in drought-affected areas, particularly when flash rains arrive, with loose and dry topsoil adding to water runoff, alongside lack of flooding preparation by communities (due to ongoing dry weather). Landslides also become a significant risk, as land degradation and decreased plant life results in unstable and landslide-prone land areas. Fires clearly also increase in risk during drought conditions, as trees and plants become dry and more prone to ignition, while dry winds and lack of rain only add to fan the flames of any hotspots or flare-ups. As previously mentioned, human conflict (or human-influenced disaster) is also an increased risk due to drought, as inequality, hunger and forced displacement all become more prevalent the longer a drought continues.
PREPARATION
While perhaps more challenging to prepare for than quick-onset disasters, ASEAN communities and governments must adopt new practices and policies to prepare for the forecasted increase in future droughts. Even in non-rural areas, efforts for water conservation and protection of green areas can support the overall context of drought mitigation. Working with farmers through new technology and drought-resistant crops, as well as promoting more sustainable land-use practices and more responsible water-use methods are all significant opportunities to help deal with the onset of drought. All parties clearly have a role in the preparation for and overcoming of future drought conditions in the region.
Written by : William Shea | Source : Ready for the Dry Years: Building resilience to drought in South-East Asia, United Nation Publication/ESCAP
CHRIS WEBB
Having played a large role as a facilitator within the AHA Centre Executive (ACE) Programme over recent years, New Zealand’s Chris Webb continued his interaction with the ASEAN region’s next disaster management leaders during 2019’s programme, taking on his role as the lead facilitator of the Critical Incident Leadership course. Alongside engaging with participants to learn about new concepts such as meta-leadership in Jakarta and then in New Zealand, Mr Webb also worked with the group during a number of their activities visiting New Zealand’s disaster management sites and institutions.
Before taking on a role as a facilitator, Mr Webb worked in the New Zealand National Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management (MCDEM) as Professional Development Manager, and for the 12 years before that he was the head of the Emergency and Disaster Management Department at the Auckland University of Technology, New Zealand. Mr Webb’s postgraduate qualifications in Emergency and Disaster Management also come from the same university, and add to his vast knowledge and experience in the disaster management sector.
Engaging as a facilitator in the ACE Programme for the past five years, including during 2019 in Jakarta and the New Zealand study trip, Mr Webb states that he has enjoyed every minute of the experience, and is always impressed with the enthusiasm that ACE participants show towards learning. He is confident that ACE graduates will strongly contribute to the future of disaster management in their own nations, as well as in the wider circles of the region and the world. Mr Webb feels that the relationships established and maintained by ACE participants definitely have great value for the One ASEAN, One Response vision. He likes to use the term “Leadership is a journey – a personal journey”, and at the end of the programme often sees that participants have embraced this form of personal development within their own context.
Outside of the ACE Programme itself, Mr Webb also believes that the greatest need for the ASEAN region is that Member States and supporting bodies continue to extend their focus outside of just disaster response, and further into the areas of disaster risk reduction and public education. He reminds us that disaster is very complex, and that the world of disaster management is part of the environment that is Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous (VUCA). Establishing and maintaining relationships, as well as communicating and leading across a wide range of groups, cultures and thinking preferences is critical as ASEAN continues to move forward in disaster management. He says that as future leaders in ASEAN, ACE participants must acknowledge that leaders need to work with others, and must learn to lead themselves. Being a self-reflective leader is critical in disaster management, and it forms an area that Mr Webb is passionate about.
Mr Webb finishes his chat with us by highlighting what he sees as one of the greatest opportunities for the AHA Centre to have a valuable influence in global disaster management – which according to him is the Centre’s own experience, and the reality of such experiences. The AHA Centre understands the complexity of managing disaster within populous areas and with a variety of different cultures and peoples. He reminds us that there is a wealth of experience within ASEAN, and if this can be harnessed further, it could contribute greatly to the current body of global disaster management knowledge.
Written by : Putri Mumpuni | Photo : AHA Centre