MONTHLY DISASTER REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
JULY 2019 | DISASTER MONITORING & ANALYSIS
(DMA) UNIT, AHA CENTRE
GENERAL OVERVIEW OF JULY 2019
During the month of July 2019, as many as 27 disasters were reported within the region. This figure is 29% higher than the previous five-year average number of disaster occurrences for July – with an observable spike in the number of earthquake and landslide occurrences. However, all other figures are lower than the respective five-year average, except for numbers of injured persons. The number of injured people increased by 64% due to the M7.2 earthquake that struck North Maluku during the second week of July. In general, the lower disaster impact figures for July this year, in comparison to the average during the last five years, can be attributed primarily to the magnitude of disaster occurrences. In July 2014, Typhoon Ramassun battered the Philippines and Viet Nam, Myanmar was heavily flooded in 2015, and drought significantly impacted Myanmar and the Philippines during 2018. These major disaster events affected between 1.7 million to 4.5 million people, displaced hundreds of thousands, and resulted in mass casualties. This year, only minor and moderate disaster events have occurred, resulting in only impact numbers of 32% of the five-year average affected people, and 10% of the five-year average internally displaced people.
There were 46 earthquakes of at least magnitude 5.0 recorded in Indonesia and the Philippines during the month. July 2019 was characterised by quite a number of earthquake events that resulted in minor to significant damages. Collectively, these earthquake events contributed to at least 79% in this month’s casualties (dead, injured, and missing), had a 65% share in causing internal displacement, and caused 92% of damaged houses.
SEASONAL OUTLOOK
Rainfall data for the month of July 2019 indicates near to above normal rainfall conditions were experienced in Lao PDR, Myanmar, Singapore, Thailand, Viet Nam, and most parts of Malaysia, the Philippines, and West Papua in Indonesia. Meanwhile, below normal rainfall conditions were recorded over eastern Indonesia and portions of southern Malaysia. Similar conditions are expected to persist as the impact of Southwest Monsoon continues in the region. For the next three months, the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) expects generally above-normal rainfall conditions in the southern parts of Cambodia, Myanmar, Thailand, and Viet Nam, while generally below-normal rainfall conditions are predicted over the southern ASEAN region and over southern Philippines. In addition, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently showing positive values, and is expected to persist into the 3rd quarter of 2019. A positive IOD can lead to below-normal rainfall conditions over Singapore and nearby areas, which will contribute further to the current drier conditions. Coupled with the effects of the Southwest Monsoon, there is a potential for an escalation of hotspot activities in the southern ASEAN region, which may lead to an increase in the risk of transboundary haze occurrence.
The potential for recurrence of flooding in the Mekong sub-region, and the continuation of drought in the southern ASEAN region, requires readiness in terms of monitoring and response. In line with this, the AHA Centre joined the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council, the Office of Civil Defense, and the Pacific Disaster Center during the launch of PhilAWARE and National Disaster Preparedness Baseline Assessment in the Philippines. These initiatives aim to increase preparedness capacities of the Philippines, including monitoring hazards within its jurisdiction. In addition, the AHA Centre also conducted the Pilot ASEAN Humanitarian Civil-Military Coordination Course, and participated in the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting (ADMM) Plus Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Response Communications and Staff Exercises. These events contribute to the readiness of the Centre in coordinating military assistance during emergency response.
Data Sources: ASEAN Disaster Information Network, ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre
Written by : Lawrence Anthony Dimailig & Shahasrakiranna
DISCLAIMER
Disclaimer: AHA Centre’s estimation is based on data and information shared by National Disaster Management Organisations (NDMOs) and other relevant agencies from ASEAN Member States, international organisations and news agencies. Further information on each recorded-significant disaster, description and detail of data and information are available at: http://adinet.ahacentre.org/reports.
THE LAUNCH OF
DELSA SATELLITE WAREHOUSE
IN THE PHILIPPINES
With the soft opening of Thailand’s Disaster Emergency Logistics System for ASEAN (DELSA) Satellite Warehouse (as covered in the Column Volume 52) taking place in Chainat during June 2019, the beginning of July would see the launching of the second satellite warehouse – based in Camp Aguinaldo, the Philippines. Coinciding with the beginning of Disaster Awareness Month in the Philippines, the second facility – another link in the chain of emergency stockpile locations across ASEAN – was successfully launched on July 1, and attended by a number of key actors and contributors from throughout the ASEAN region.
The opening of this second warehouse finalises this aspect of the DELSA project, and marks the beginning of a new era for ASEAN disaster response efforts under One ASEAN, One Response, that aims to increase the speed and scale of disaster response efforts through the utilisation of innovations such as the stockpile warehouse system. The region now holds two key satellite outposts to support the primary warehouse in Subang, Malaysia, that will serve to significantly increase ASEAN’s capacity and effectiveness during disaster response situations in years to come. This point was highlighted by the AHA Centre’s Executive Director Ms. Adelina Kamal during her speech at the launch when she stated that “the DELSA network will scale up and speed up ASEAN’s response, as the satellite warehouses are closer to the disaster-prone countries. It will increase predictability of ASEAN’s response, and predictability of response is one of the key elements for a credible ASEAN’s response”.
The satellite warehouse development has been strongly supported by the Government of the Philippines, who allocated a dedicated warehouse inside Camp General Emilio Aguinaldo, Quezon City, for the purpose of pre-positioning stockpile for disaster response. Direct support was delivered by the Philippines’ Department of National Defense, who worked to convert a section of the Armed Forces of the Philippines – Logistics Command (AFP-LOGCOM) Depot to serve as the satellite warehouse at the aforementioned location. These efforts highlight the willingness of ASEAN Member State governments to work together for the benefit of the region, with governments of the Philippines and Thailand providing significant support to the DELSA project expansion.
Speaking at the opening ceremony, Under Secretary Ricardo B. Jalad, the Administrator of the Office of Civil Defense of the Philippines expressed his appreciation with the launch of the warehouse, “we are pleased that this DELSA (Disaster Emergency Logistics System for ASEAN) warehouse is now ready for operation today. This satellite warehouse is another enduring pillar that will support our declaration of ‘One ASEAN. One Response’ enabling us to heighten our emergency preparedness and increase our response capacity as a member state and together with the ASEAN members will respond to both large scale and medium scale disasters within and outside the ASEAN region”.
The second satellite warehouse will be co-managed by the AHA Centre and the Philippines National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) through the Office of Civil Defense (OCD). The effort is continuously supported by the Government of Japan through the Japan-ASEAN Integration Fund (JAIF), with the warehouse development across both the Philippines and Thailand evidencing the ongoing strength in partnerships and collaboration between the AHA Centre and its ASEAN national counterparts in disaster risk reduction and management.
H.E. Delfin Lorenzana, the Secretary of National Defense of the Republic of the Philippines, highlighted the collaboration between the national government and the regional organisation, “We commend our friends and partners in Asean and the AHA Center for tirelessly working the realization of regional emergency stockpiles as well as enhancing institutional capacity building, and communication awareness”.
“ALONE WE CAN DO SO LITTLE. TOGETHER WE CAN DO SO MUCH. LET’S CONTINUE OUR DELSA JOURNEY TOGETHER FOR ONE ASEAN, ONE RESPONSE”
Adelina Kamal
Executive Director of the AHA Centre
Written by : William Shea | Photo Credit : Office of Civil Defense of the Republic of the Philippines
MS. ANTHEA WEBB
This month, The Column sat down with Ms. Anthea Webb, the Bangkok-based Deputy Regional Director of World Food Programme (WFP) for Asia and the Pacific, to learn about her experience in disaster management. Having built her career as a humanitarian for over 20 years, Anthea has been involved in numerous emergency responses across the world, such as in Kosovo, China, and Indonesia. Throughout her professional journey, she has witnessed the evolution of technology – and while this has significantly increased support emergency responses – she still maintains that the “natural alarm” forms our best warning system.
Anthea’s interest in humanitarian work developed from her university days in Australia, where she was involved in fundraising campaign to support the Cambodian refugees in early 1990s. From there she chose to “park” her journalism degree and volunteer in a social project supporting Vietnamese asylum seekers in Hong Kong. She then moved to work in the Vatican City, Rome, and then joined the World Food Programme in 1998. Anthea believes the initial challenges she experienced in the humanitarian field were overcome due to her natural passion for learning.
“Among the people I’ve been pleased to work with, there is a real drive to keep doing things better. Every emergency is different but often, some of the patterns are the same. Each time we intervene, we want to go faster, make the outcomes for the affected people better, do it at a lower cost in a way that leaves the organisation and the community stronger to face the next emergencies.”
Anthea also acknowledges the presence of natural hazards as a part of life. She states that while we may not be able to avoid droughts, floods, cyclones, and earthquakes, we can be prepared to respond to the impacts. The single question to reflect on is “How we can do it better?” Reviewing her past experiences, the mother-of-two highlights that a greater challenge than logistics occurs when different agencies do not incorporate their planning for disaster response. Anthea believes that groups like the AHA Centre can help overcome this issue and focus on getting people to work together.
“For me, one of the most interesting outcomes from the Sulawesi response was how much closer it brought us to the other humanitarian Country Team members. Being forced together like that is really important, and it is really important to continue that relationship. Exercises, simulations, joint-projects and missions help us to understand each other’s ways of working, motivation and goals,” she said.
Anthea keeps in mind that disasters can strike at any time and highlights the importance of technology in forecasting the impact of disastrous events. One of the innovations that Anthea co-initiated with Pulse Lab Jakarta (PLJ) is VAMPIRE, that stands for Vulnerability Analysis Monitoring Platform for the Impact of Regional Events. VAMPIRE integrates and promotes data innovation through visualisation of traceable drought impact on vulnerable populations.
“The project started in 2015 when the world – particularly Southeast Asia and Indonesia – was facing a very strong El Niño and its significant impacts. When we saw how large the impact might be, we realised we didn’t have a fast system for forecasting what a big drought would mean for rice and food production in Indonesia, as well as impact on farmers’ income. With PLJ, we developed a system that automatically catches available data, and automatically updates it, allowing us to spend our time on the analysis, and not waiting for the information itself. We were also able to integrate other related data, to support identification of areas most in need of government intervention.”
Following its successful adoption and use in Indonesia, similar forecasting methods as part of an early warning system are being piloted in other countries such as Cambodia, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka. While technology brings a lot of positives to emergency response, Anthea doesn’t forget her first deployment with WFP in Kosovo, when open-source online map and GPS were not widely available nor accessible. Relying on printed maps pinned all over the walls and floors – in the absence of desks – her team had to identify the correct sites to deliver relief items. She still admits that even the most sophisticated technology can fail us at times, and reminds us never to underestimate the value of original and hand-on techniques.
“In the context of a tsunami, the earthquake is the warning. That is the initial siren telling us to move to higher ground”, Anthea reminds us. “When hey sense danger, most people will act to protect themselves and family. Thus, it is important to get the message through to the people at risk”.
Written by : Shintya Kurniawan | Photo : Personal collection of Ms. Anthea Webb
SEMINAR ON
MANAGEMENT OF THE DEAD
While death is a topic that we all don’t enjoy, the reality of disaster management is that it is also a common theme we all face during and after disasters occur. Therefore, an integral part of the role for a disaster manager is to understand victim identification, and also the proper and dignified ways to manage deceased people as a result of disaster situations. During June 2019, the AHA Centre co-organised a seminar on dignified management of the dead, in partnership with the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and supported by the Indonesian National Disaster Management Authority (BNPB).
Taking place from 20-21 of June, the seminar was attended by over 80 representatives of agencies involved in emergency and disaster response from ASEAN Member States, alongside representatives from local government agencies in Indonesia, other partner agencies and the nation of Timor Leste. A key outcome was the agreement that proper training of first responders was key to improving management of the dead, especially drawing on lessons learned from the earthquake, tsunami and liquefaction disaster in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia.
“Dignified management of the dead remains a relevant theme for the ASEAN Member States given that the region is geographically prone to natural disasters. It’s crucial that the first responders are equipped with sufficient knowledge and skills in victim identification during the early stages of search and rescue. Proper and dignified management of the dead can also help minimise the distress caused to families who lose their loved ones by helping provide answers and giving them closure”, said the head of ICRC’s regional delegation for Indonesia and Timor-Leste, Alexandre Faite.
As part of the seminar, the ICRC also took the opportunity to introduce official guidelines – Management of Dead Bodies after Disasters: A Field Manual for First Responders – as well as promote a regional proposal to develop a practical tool from available global knowledge in the field of dignified management of the dead, to be adapted to the South East Asian context.
The Executive Director of the AHA Centre, Ms. Adelina Kamal, highlighted the importance of such developments within a seminar such as this.
“ASEAN countries have a wealth of experience in responding to disasters over the past decades. We also have rich local wisdom as well as cultural and religious diversities. The workshop intends to promote cross-fertilisation of knowledge and experience of the ASEAN countries to enrich the field guide. At the same time, the AHA Centre will also use the accumulated experience and knowledge to enhance our regional preparedness for One ASEAN One Response”
Written by : William Shea | Photo : AHA Centre