MONTHLY DISASTER REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
FEBRUARY 2019 | DISASTER MONITORING & ANALYSIS
(DMA) UNIT, AHA CENTRE
GENERAL OVERVIEW OF FEBRUARY 2019
February 2019 was characterised by an unusually low number of recorded disaster events, registering less than a quarter of the five-year average of occurrences for the month. Although the region experienced scattered rain showers in the south, and generally dry and hazy conditions in the north, the record-breaking low number of impact on communities (only 6% and 1% of the five-year average number for affected and displaced people respectively) could reflect the improving effectiveness of disaster management practices among ASEAN Member States. On the other hand, the recorded number of damaged houses was more than five times the five-year average. An overwhelming majority of the damage was caused by hailstorms and strong winds in Northeastern Viet Nam. Fortunately, about 84% (or 3,436) houses incurred only minor damage. In general, February 2019 was a more settled month for disaster managers across the region.
In addition to Indonesia’s South Solok Regency earthquake that resulted to minor damages, there were 30 other earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 and above in Indonesia and the Philippines during February. While still a high number, it forms only 48% compared to last month’s seismic activities of the same strength. There was also intensified dynamicity in volcanic activities in the region, most notably in Indonesia. Fortunately, only Mt. Karangetang (on Siau Island) experienced damage, which was also considered minor. This result is influenced by the increasing awareness of both authorities and communities to volcano-related risks, and their improved cooperation to mitigate and prevent impacts and damages.
SEASONAL OUTLOOK
The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre reported that the prevailing Northeastern Monsoon season is expected to transition into the inter-monsoon period by the end of March 2019. During the inter-monsoon period, the region is expected to experience an increase in rain activity. This is good news for the Mekong sub-region, as it will help ease transboundary smoke haze in the area. However, this could also mean flooding, rain-induced landslides, and other hydrological hazards in the equatorial and southern parts of the ASEAN region – particularly in Indonesia and Malaysia. There remains a likelihood that the hotspots and smoke haze conditions in the Mekong sub-region could persist, however, it is expected that the prevailing dry season in northern ASEAN will gradually come to an end by April 2019.
With the expected increase in hydro-meteorological activities within the region, the AHA Centre is preparing by strengthening efforts to share early-warning information, and monitoring data and information between the Centre and National Disaster Management Organisations (NDMOs). This is being undertaken through conducting an ASEAN Workshop on Disaster Reporting and Big Data for Disaster Management, and the development of the proposed AHA Centre Information Management Technical Working Group (AIM-TWG). The workshop aims to build regional and national capacity in utilising current and new information and communication technologies, while AIM-TWG is envisioned to be a platform for cooperation and collaboration between and among AHA Centre and NDMOs for strengthening regional and national disaster information management capacities, capabilities, and practices.
Written by : Eviana Rosida, Lawrence Anthony Dimailig
DISCLAIMER
Disclaimer: AHA Centre’s estimation is based on data and information shared by National Disaster Management Organisations (NDMOs) and other relevant agencies from ASEAN Member States, international organisations and news agencies. Further information on each recorded-significant disaster, description and detail of data and information are available at: http://adinet.ahacentre.org/reports.
MONTHLY DISASTER REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
DECEMBER 2018 | DISASTER MONITORING & ANALYSIS
(DMA) UNIT, AHA CENTRE
GENERAL OVERVIEW OF DECEMBER 2018
As generally expected for the “winter” or Northeast monsoon period, the southern part of ASEAN – particularly Indonesia, Malaysia, southern Philippines and Thailand – experienced an increase in floods during December 2018. Some areas within those countries also experienced landslides due to heavy rainfall in mountainous areas.
In terms of geological hazards, 32 earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 or higher were reported in December, compared to 18 earthquakes recorded during December of 2017. However, none of the recorded seismic activities had significant effects to constitute a disastrous event. A M7.2 earthquake with a deep epicentre of 60 km below the earth’s surface was also reported near Davao Oriental, the Philippines, which triggered a tsunami warning – although the warning was eventually cancelled. In general, there were no fatalities or significant damage directly caused by earthquakes this month. However, there was one undetected tsunami event in Sunda Strait that caused significant number of fatalities and damage in Banten and Lampung Provinces of Indonesia. The tsunami, that struck on the evening of December 22, was triggered by landslide on Mount Anak Krakatau, that resulted from a series of eruptions and general increased volcanic activity on the mountain that sits in the middle of the Sunda Strait. From post-event observations, Mt. Anak Krakatau was found to have reduced in height from 1,800 metres to 357 metres, based on pre and post-tsunami images released by the Indonesian Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT). Consequently, the Centre for Volcanology and Geological Disaster Mitigation (PVMBG) elevated the alert status from advisory to watch (level III out of maximum IV).
OUTLOOK FOR JANUARY 2019
In the first week of the fortnight, a northeast monsoon surge is expected to cause wetter conditions in the South China Sea, particularly over coastal Thailand and Viet Nam. Related stronger monsoonal winds are likely to bring wetter weather to areas around the Java Sea as well. Conversely, drier conditions are expected over the Philippines. According to PAGASA climatology of tropical cyclones, there is a possibility of up to one tropical cyclone passing through the Philippines in January. Colder conditions in the highlands of the northern ASEAN region are forecasted. Following the cold conditions in the first week, should there be a sudden drop in temperatures, it might result in increased risk of flash floods with melting of snow or increased precipitation in the highlands.
Later in the month, the wetter conditions over the South China Sea are likely to spread further southward to affect the north-eastern coast of Peninsular Malaysia and southern Thailand. Thunderstorms are expected near the equatorial belt as the trade winds will bring heavier rainfall across the South China Sea towards Peninsular Malaysia and Singapore from the eastern front. Areas around the Java Sea are likely to become drier during this period.
The prevailing Northeast Monsoon is expected to persist until March 2019. This will bring occasional extended periods of dry weather in the northern ASEAN region during this period. Tropical storms and depressions will generally pass through Central and Southern Philippines, and towards Central and Southern Viet Nam bringing heavier rainfall in these regions. Cold spells will also be common in the northern lowland provinces of Viet Nam.
Written by : Qing Yuan Pang
DISCLAIMER
Disclaimer: AHA Centre’s estimation is based on data and information shared by National Disaster Management Organisations (NDMOs) and other relevant agencies from ASEAN Member States, international organisations and news agencies. Further information on each recorded-significant disaster, description and detail of data and information are available at: http://adinet.ahacentre.org/reports.
TACKLING TYPHOONS
PREPAREDNESS AND SAFETY TIPS
The Pacific typhoon season poses an annual threat to the ASEAN region, with Member States such as Lao PDR, Thailand, Viet Nam, and in particular the Philippines often experiencing the brunt of large typhoons and tropical storms – usually between the months of May to October. Numerous typhoons and tropical storms also form in the Northern Pacific (Bay of Bengal) region, often striking Myanmar and other nearby nations from the west of ASEAN. 2018 displayed the potential impact of such events, with Typhoon Mangkhut and Tropical Storm Son Tinh affecting ASEAN communities, not only through the initial impact of the storms, but also the resulting disasters such as flood and landslides caused by the heavy rain and winds. Through its activities during the advance of Typhoon Mangkhut, the Philippines evidenced the benefit of preparedness measures in the typhoon season, providing inspiration for the following tips on typhoon preparedness and safety measures.
WHEN A TYPHOON IS NEAR
Understanding and preparedness can play a significant role in minimising damage and loss of life when large storms are baring down. Strong planning and coordination between governments, communities and disaster management bodies such as the AHA Centre can go a long way towards ensuring the people of ASEAN and their livelihoods remain stable even in the face of super typhoon and tropical storm events. Organisations such as the AHA Centre and national governments have the technology and knowledge to track the progress of impending typhoon and storm cells, therefore information sharing and awareness is imperative for preparedness.
1. MONITOR INFORMATION
Identify your local news outlet and information channels from your local government and disaster management authorities, and follow the information and any directions (particularly orders to evacuate) during the days leading-up to the storm’s landfall.
2. PREPARE YOUR HOME
Your home is a place of refuge during a storm, as well as something to return to if you are ordered to evacuate. Boarding up windows and removing overhanging trees can go a long way to minimising damage to your place of residence.
3. PREPARE TO WAIT IT OUT
Once an impending typhoon is near, staying in your home is the only option, therefore a safe place on the ground floor away from windows and doors should be identified. It is best to organise food, water and medical supplies in advance, as it may be some time before the storm clears and emergency teams can access your local area to provide further support.
4. PREPARE A GRAB-BAG
Having a Grab-Bag is imperative should you be ordered to evacuate at short notice. It should contain water, nutritional food/snacks, spare warm clothes, a torch, a communication device, and important medication.
5. HARVEST AND SECURE
For farmers or fishermans, it is recommended to harvest available crops in the days leading-up to a typhoon’s landfall, fishing boats and other important farming equipment should be secured and tied-down in a safe place, to ensure increased ability to return to economic activities once the worst has passed.
DURING AND AFTER A TYPHOON
Whether you are in your home or forced to evacuate, your decisions can determine your safety during the event of disaster.
1. IN THE HOME
If in your home, confine yourself to the determined safe space away from windows on the ground floor, with all doors and windows closed and covered. Turn off gas and electricity sources, and wait calmly until the worst has passed. Do not be fooled if there is a lull in the storm, as it may be the storm’s eye or a moment of respite. Once conditions have calmed for a number of hours, it is then safe to say that you have survived the worst. Remember, however, to be aware of secondary disasters such as flood and landslide that may threaten your immediate surrounds.
2. EVACUATION
In the days leading-up to the typhoon’s landfall you may be requested to evacuate to a nearby safe location appointed by your local government or disaster management body. It is recommended to follow all orders and requests completely, as such decisions are made based on the most relevant and technical information available, and with the best interests of community safety in mind. Pack your important belongings and your Grab-Bag, and follow all orders from authorities calmly and in an orderly fashion.
AFTER THE STORM
If planning to return from evacuation shelters, only do so when given the all-clear by the relevant authorities. When arriving home, monitor your property from the outside, check for damage to the structure of your house, and also to cables or pipes for electricity and gas. For those waiting-out the storm at home, the same applies as for evacuees. Check your home’s structure and potential leaks or breaks in utility supplies, wait for contact from emergency services, and at all times remain aware of potential secondary disasters.
Written by: Will Shea
H.E. PAM DUNN
H.E. Pam Dunn is New Zealand’s Ambassador to ASEAN, and she was New Zealand’s first person of Asian descent to head a diplomatic post. After working her way through a range of diplomatic roles – both at home in New Zealand and significant time in China – Ambassador Dunn took on her current role in early 2018. This broad experience as a leader across varying contexts and with diverse teams has provided her a unique insight and opinion on just what leadership means, and how to be a strong and effective leader in a modern, changing world. During late 2018, Ambassador Dunn delivered a leader’s talk to the AHA Centre’s Executive (ACE) Programme participants, allowing participants a unique and engaging insight into her experience and knowledge for their futures in leading the ASEAN region on disaster management.
Mrs. Dunn’s leadership career is full of challenges and ground-breaking firsts. Her role in the early 2000’s as New Zealand Consul General in Shanghai saw her become the first Asian-New Zealand to take up such a high diplomatic post. In the array of roles that followed – both at home and abroad – Mrs. Dunn was to learn about not only the people she led, but more about herself and her own point of view on being a successful and impactful leader for the teams she headed. She highlights the fact that she made mistakes, as we all do, but that the key was to learn from those mistakes and how to improve. Such learning and self-awareness is an important self-growth element to becoming a better leader. Mrs. Dunn also spoke of taking on the harder aspects of leadership, whether working with under-performing staff or having to discharging staff who worked hard due to organisational change. She highlights that this – while perhaps the hardest part of leadership – is also the part that defines a great leader from the pack. Being prepared for change, and acting on organisational decisions that you may not personally agree with are just a couple of challenging contexts that one signs-up for when they take on leadership roles.
Mrs. Dunn also spoke of the importance of understanding what your values are, and implementing them not only within your own work, but within your team’s efforts as well. For her, respect is key, and she highlights the importance of showing such respect to all people in the workplace and outside, regardless of their position, their characteristics, or any other features that are different from our own. She also reminds us that in this modern, changing world, the idea of leadership has changed. No longer must we ‘look’ or seem like a leader from appearance only, but that new leaders must be engaged, responsive, and aim to train and build those around them to also carry the leadership burden.
Moving to the ASEAN region and adapting to a new context, culture and team has been Mrs. Dunn’s most recent challenge, within which she has again revisited the importance of strategic leadership that she learnt during her time in the New Zealand Embassy in China. Having the ability to manage up, down and sideways, as well as determining your roles, priorities and where to put your time and effort are all integral aspects of leading in a busy, evolving work environment. Such leadership is therefore integral in the disaster management context.
Mrs. Dunn gave her insight on the key elements of what she believes forms effective and successful leadership. “Strategic leadership is key to ensuring that we are empowering and creating ownership within our team to understand what they are doing and why they are doing it”, she said. Mrs. Dunn also highlights the importance of diversity, as it opens the door for creativity and new ideas. While it is much more challenging than a team that mirrors your own characteristics, it can also be much more successful, provided we ensure the diverse range of staff feel comfortable that they have a place within the team. Alongside this, providing time to your staff – and importantly yourself – is also a must for great leaders. Time, she says is one of the most valuable things we can give. Mrs. Dunn also highlights the importance of having a mentor to guide you through the challenges, obstacles and hard times that litter the path of leadership. Finally, Mrs. Dunn implored the audience to ‘just say yes’. When she herself built the confidence to just say yes to opportunities, more and more opportunities presented themselves.
The Ambassador reminds us to think not about whether you are good enough, but whether you can help others reach their potential – whether you can make the world a better place. “Say yes and see what happens, you may be surprised”, she finishes with a smile.
Written by : William Shea | Photo : AHA Centre, ASEAN Secretariat