MONTHLY DISASTER REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
NOVEMBER | DISASTER MONITORING & ANALYSIS
(DMA) UNIT, AHA CENTRE
GENERAL OVERVIEW OF NOVEMBER 2018
November 2018 witnesses a two-fold increase in flood occurrences reported in comparison to the same period during 2017. As the region enters the “winter” monsoon period, the southern parts of ASEAN generally experience heavier rainfall, particularly in areas around the equator (shown in Figure 1) where precipitation patterns are generally higher. The heavier precipitation patterns (darker blue areas) are also brought about by typhoons and tropical storms, with these hydro-meteorological phenomena contributing to the increased flooding and collateral hazards (e.g. landslides) reported in the last month. An interesting note is that there was still drought reported in Indonesia – although this is coming to an end as the rainy season approaches.
In terms of geological hazards, 20 earthquakes of higher than magnitude 5.0 were reported during November 2018, compared to 22 during November 2017. Even though there were fewer reported earthquakes in 2018, the earthquakes were widely distributed across the boundary of the Indo-Australian plate, compared to being concentrated in the Ambon Sea in November 2017. Of concern are that 45% of these earthquakes were registered with a depth of less than 20km, which increases the likelihood of damage and disaster in nearby communities. In 2018, the reported earthquakes mostly occurred in areas with higher vulnerability – including in Eastern Indonesia and southern parts of the Philippines. There are currently six active volcanoes in Indonesia (Krakatau, Merapi, Agung, Semeru, Ibu and Dukono), as well as one in the Philippines (Mayon) on which recent volcanic activity has been reported.
OUTLOOK FOR THE DECEMBER 2018 – FEBRUARY 2019 PERIOD
There is an increased probability of above-average rainfall over the western equatorial region (parts of northern Sumatra, Peninsular Malaysia and Borneo). During this season, the monsoon rain band is forecasted to gradually shift south towards the Equator with an increased likelihood of shower activities and winds of light and variable direction. Shower activities are expected to persist until January 2019, reducing in the approach to February. Due to rainy conditions, hotspot activities in the southern ASEAN region are likely to remain activities in the southern ASEAN region are likely to remain subdued. Collateral hazards to heavy rains, such as landslides, should be monitored during this period, as heavier precipitation may trigger isolated incidents in hilly or mountainous areas.
Modeling has indicated that tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies are not expected to warm much further. The probability of weak El Niño conditions occurring will peak during the October-December 2018 season, and will weaken beyond the first quarter of 2019. Due to the weak El Niño conditions, tropical typhoon forecasts remain at up to 3 potential typhoons until January 2019, with a slim chance of any forming during February*.
*) Information courtesy of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).
Written by : Qing Yuan Pang
DISCLAIMER
AHA Centre’s estimation is based on data and information shared by National Disaster Management Organisations (NDMOs) and other relevant agencies from ASEAN Member States, international organisations and news agencies. Further information on each recorded-significant disaster, description and detail of data and information are available at: http://adinet.ahacentre.org/reports.
ARDEX-18
Large-scale disaster responses can be complex in nature, and require the engagement of a wide array of responders, support networks and capacities to ensure the safety of affected communities and pave the way for efficient recovery processes. To prepare for such events, improve procedures, and trial new innovations, every two years ASEAN’s disaster management bodies and practitioners come together to undertake the region’s largest simulation exercise – the ASEAN Regional Disaster Emergency Response Simulation Exercise (ARDEX-18) – that allows all parties to engage, trial and debrief within an atmosphere designed to mirror responses to a relevant large-scale disaster. ARDEX-18, ASEAN’s 7th such simulation, was implemented in Indonesia from the 5th to the 9th of November.
For the first time, 2018’s ARDEX saw the inclusion of hazardous material (hazmat) elements within the overall disaster response simulation, with the exercise focusing on a response to a three-fold disaster situation – namely an earthquake, tsunami and industrial facility damage leading to hazmat leakage – striking the area of Cilegon on the north-western tip of Java island. Cilegon itself has been highlighted by the Indonesian Disaster Management Authority (BPNB) as a high-risk area for such a risk, and therefore provided the perfect backdrop for the added hazmat element within the overall ARDEX-18 exercise. During his address at the opening of ARDEX-18, the then BNPB’s Chief, H.E. Willem Rampangilei, reminded participants of the overall importance of ARDEX events by stating that “ARDEX is an effort to demonstrate ASEAN’s solidarity in increasing disaster readiness, mitigation, and preparedness in Southeast Asia. ARDEX also serves as a platform to enhance our collective capacity and share ideas to attain the best possible disaster management efforts”.
Preparations for ARDEX-18 had been taking place for almost a year, ensuring the integration of a range of ASEAN disaster management procedures and practices including the ASEAN Joint Disaster Response Plan (AJDRP), the ASEAN Standby Arrangements and Standard Operating Procedure (SASOP), the ASEAN Emergency Response and Assessment Team (ERAT), and the guidelines to establish the Joint Operation and Coordinating Centre of ASEAN (JOCCA).
The results of the 5-day exercise will act as the catalyst for improvements and changes to many of these processes, including updating and refining the SASOP and ARDEX handbooks for future exercises. ARDEX-18 also presented the opportunity to engage bodies from both outside the direct disaster management scope, as well as outside the region, to further understand and increase implementation capacity of ASEAN disaster management process and practice, a particularly important element for efficient responses to large-scale disasters. ARDEX-18 was attended by a range of government officials, humanitarian organisations, search and rescue organisations, defence and military officials, private sector representatives, civil society actors, and members of the academic community to improve such broad multi-sectoral partner engagement in ASEAN disaster management activities.
Although faced by the challenges of ongoing disaster responses in Lombok and Central Sulawesi during the lead-up and implementation of ARDEX-18, Indonesia’s BNPB and AHA Centre managed to ensure a fluent and engaging implementation of the exercise, which encompassed a range of formats and workshops under the context of a transnational disaster response.
ARDEX-18 combined both strategic and tactical components, with the simulation exercise including indoor table top discussions between decision makers, in parallel with outdoor command post exercises (CPX) and joint field training exercises (FTX) for humanitarian responders. The real situation of multiple ongoing disaster responses further highlighted the importance and relevance of simulation exercises such as ARDEX-18 for the overall ASEAN, and international disaster management sector.
As stated by the AHA Centre’s Executive Director Ms. Adelina Kamal, “ARDEX is the only regional exercise platform that tests and validates disaster management tools to improve preparedness and readiness for One ASEAN One Response. It also provides a great environment for all of us, including local governments, local communities and stakeholders, to fight against complacency. ARDEX helps us explore the needs as well as acknowledge the capacity of all ASEAN Member States, that will be useful once we are faced with actual emergencies” she explained. As the event wrapped-up on the fifth and final day, all of the 170 participants from across the world had gained further insight into ASEAN’s mechanisms, alongside providing relevant input and sharing ideas and experience for furthering a united ASEAN.
Written by: Shintya Kurniawan | Photo : AHA Centre
THE 9th MEETING
OF THE GOVERNING BOARD
OF THE AHA CENTRE
Putrajaya, Malaysia was the venue for the 9th Meeting of the Governing Board of the AHA Centre, held during the first week of October, 2018. Alongside representatives from the ten ASEAN Member States, the meeting was also attended by representatives from the ASEAN Secretariat and the AHA Centre. The meeting was chaired by Dato’ Mohtar Bin Mohd. Abd. Rahman, the Director-General of the National Disaster Management Agency of Malaysia (NADMA), who expressed his condolences and support to the communities affected by the earthquake and tsunami in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia.
During the meeting, the AHA Centre provided an update on its implementation of the AHA Centre Work Plan 2020 – having recently concluded the workplan’s mid-term review. This provided an opportunity to present the Governing Board with a number of key outcomes achieved by the AHA Centre in recent times, alongside progress updates on some new and innovative activities to increase the capacity and quality of disaster management in the ASEAN region. The presentation also highlights the implementation of the AHA Centre Executive Programme Phase II, the transformation plan for the ASEAN Emergency Response and Assessment Team (ASEAN-ERAT), and the AHA Centre’s numerous emergency responses throughout 2018.
A key outcome achieved during these series of meetings was the increase of annual contributions to the AHA Centre Fund, which from 2019 will increase from USD 50,000 to USD 90,000 from each of the 10 Member States. This decision forms a key step to realising the sustainability of the AHA Centre into the future, and ultimately a stronger and more united ASEAN in the face of natural disaster. The 9th Governing Board meeting was held concurrently with a number of other key strategic events, including the 33rd Meeting of the ASEAN Committee on Disaster Management (ACDM), the 10th Meeting of the Joint Task Force to Promote Synergy with Other Relevant ASEAN Bodies on Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR), the 6th ASEAN Ministerial Meeting on Disaster Management (AMMDM), and the 7th Meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response.
Written by : Dipo Summa, William Shea | Photo : AHA Centre
MR. KADIR MAIDEEN
Kadir Maideen has been a part of the Singapore Civil Defence Force (SCDF) for 24 years, currently tasked with enlisting and training newly enlisted National Service Members into the SCDF system. His engagement with the disaster management field began in the late 1990’s through a range of SCDF roles, in which he found himself delving deeper and deeper into the emerging ASEAN disaster management field. This early engagement, supported by his role and position within ASEAN and the SCDF, saw Mr. Kadir play a crucial role within the group that founded the ASEAN Emergency Response and Assessment Team (ASEAN-ERAT).
Mr. Kadir first joined the SCDF’s elite Disaster Assistance and Rescue team in 1999, responding to overseas disasters such as the earthquake in Taiwan during September of that year. “I think the turning point for me however”, he remembers, “was undertaking the United Nations Disaster Assessment and Coordination (UNDAC) course in 2004, shortly after which I was part of the UNDAC response to the Aceh tsunami”. Mr. Kadir continued with missions to Pakistan, and Jogjakarta and Padang in Indonesia. The initiation of the ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response (AADMER), and SCDF’s role as the focal point for the ASEAN Committee on Disaster Management (ACDM), saw Mr. Kadir move deeper into the ASEAN disaster management sector, and in 2007 found himself attached to the ASEAN Secretariat to develop the Standard Operating Procedures for Regional Standby Arrangements and Coordination of Joint Disaster Relief and Emergency Response Operations (SASOP). After returning to his role in the SCDF, Mr. Kadir was then positioned at the forefront of the ASEAN-ERAT development process.
“I was part of the initial team, together with some of my colleagues, assigned to formulate the goals for ERAT training, on how ERAT should be formed, how it could be operationalised, and therefore, and setting the path for what ASEAN-ERAT is today.” Mr. Kadir remembers that the initial planning and design was broad and would follow the model of UNDAC – yet from a regional perspective. In reality, the ERAT system was formed during 2007, and began initial implementation steps through two operational responses – in Myanmar (Cyclone Nargis) – during 2008. However, it was the Mentawai earthquake and tsunami in 2010 that served as the basis to validate the ASEAN-ERAT processes.
Mr. Kadir remembers that at these deployments, it was all very basic – “The mission did not use any comprehensive assessment tools or sophisticated communication means such as what we have now. The whole process was experiential and experimental, full of challenges. But with our strong commitment and excellent team work, we overcame these challenges. Above all, we document the challenges faced and areas for improvements and present them at the next ERAT course.”
Looking to the future of ASEAN-ERAT, through the period of the programme’s transformation plan, Mr. Kadir sees great opportunity for being responsive and innovative. “We must think ahead” he reflects, “as even some of the existing response mechanisms are becoming irrelevant due to the changing times”. “We must really think about the parameters that guide what ERAT will be, how it transforms, and to harness new technology for enhanced efficiency.” Mr. Kadir hopes ASEAN-ERAT will continue to be relevant and responsive, and not become cumbersome in its implementation. “We must ensure that ASEAN-ERAT is a much sought-after resource in times of disaster” he states.
Overall, Mr. Kadir hopes that ASEAN-ERAT continues to expand and open its doors to all members of the region, receiving more-and-more participants from outside the existing disaster management network. “I hope that we reach a stage where anybody could be an ASEAN-ERAT member, contributing to the benefit of ASEAN itself.” As for potential future participants in the ASEAN-ERAT programme, Mr. Kadir highlights the importance of self-preparation – as preparing oneself for the rigours and stress of a response is a key factor to a successful response in itself. He concludes by reminding all current and future ASEAN-ERAT members to “always know that when you are on a mission, you have friends with you, and they, and the AHA Centre have your back – they will always be there to support you”.
Written by : William Shea | Photo : AHA Centre