NATURAL DISASTER TYPES
GEOPHYSICAL (EARTHQUAKES)
Situated on the Ring of Fire, the ASEAN region faces one of the greatest threats of natural disaster due to geophysical activity along this active belt of tectonic plates. Following on from volcanoes in the last edition, another key disaster threat categorised into the geophysical type are earthquakes, as well as a range of related disasters that can occur as the result of earthquake activity. Earthquakes are another form of geophysical events that have triggered disasters in ASEAN during recent times. Therefore, understanding the varieties and impacts of earthquakes is important for disaster management across the region.
The AHA Centre receives ongoing information regarding earthquakes as they take place across the region. Considered relatively unpredictable, earthquake occurrences are therefore more often than not the focus of both response and preparedness activities for the AHA Centre team. As with volcanoes, Indonesia’s geographical location sees it experience earthquakes of various sizes on an almost daily basis, with their impact highly dependent upon a range of influencing factors such as force, depth, location and vicinity to human populations and infrastructure.
2018 has seen more than its fair share of significant earthquake events, particularly across Indonesia. A number of major earthquakes during August and September caused widespread death and damage on the island of Lombok and its surrounds, while most recently a 7.4M event shook central Sulawesi, causing not only extreme devastation from the earthquake itself, but a resulting tsunami that has affected millions of people. Other significant ASEAN earthquakes in recent times include:
7.2M quake that killed over 200 people in Bohol, the Philippines 2013;
6.9M earthquake that killed approximately 100 people in Myanmar, 2011;
7.6M earthquake that caused over 1,000 deaths in Padang, Indonesia 2009; and
9.1-9.3M earthquake (and resulting tsunami) with an epicentre off Aceh, Indonesia, that resulted in the loss of over 220,000 lives, and displaced millions across 14 countries, including Indonesia, Thailand, Myanmar and Malaysia.
ABOUT EARTHQUAKES
An earthquake, identified by a shaking of the earth, are most often caused by movement of geological fault lines (along the edges of the earth’s tectonic plates) – known as an inter-plate earthquake. The three main types of faults that can result in these earthquakes are known as ‘normal’, ‘reverse thrust’ and ‘strike-slip’ faults. The first two types of fault occur when two plates meet, resulting in movement that is vertical in nature (dip-slip movement). The third, strike-slip faults, are characterised by two plates meeting and sliding past each other horizontally. While most of the earthquakes we experience are related to these naturally occurring faults, earthquakes are also caused by other events such as volcanic activity, or human-induced occurrences such as mine blasts or nuclear testing.
MEASURING EARTHQUAKES
The power of an earthquake is measured by the use of the Richter scale, most commonly used to describe the magnitude (for example 6M or 6MR) and impact of a quake. An earthquake’s impact and force will decrease further from its epicentre, and also depend upon the location and depth of the initial fault occurrence. In general, earthquakes felt with higher magnitude measurement will result in greater damage, with general guidelines shown below.
RELATED HAZARDS
Aside from being powerful and deadly in themselves, earthquakes also lead to a range of other dangerous natural disasters. Well-known to the ASEAN region is the tsunami, which is caused by shallow earthquakes with an epicentre in the ocean, resulting in giant waves that make their way towards land. Alongside this, the shaking of the earth from a quake can cause landslides in hilly or mountainous regions, as well as phenomenon such as soil liquefaction, which was a major cause of death and destruction after the most recent earthquake in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia..
Written by : William Shea
MONTHLY DISASTER REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
SEPTEMBER | DISASTER MONITORING & ANALYSIS
(DMA) UNIT, AHA CENTRE
GENERAL OVERVIEW OF SEPTEMBER 2018
With the Northwest Monsoon season coming to an end between late September and early October, weather patterns in northern ASEAN will shift from wet with heavy rainfall towards a drier and cooler climate. Occasional storms and thunderstorms may still cause flash floods within certain parts of northern ASEAN. During September, the Philippines experienced Super Typhoon Mangkhut, which passed through the nation’s Northern regions and islands around the vicinity. The typhoon brought about heavy rainfall and triggered deadly landslides, causing significant destruction and devastation to agricultural crops. However, as a result of the changing trade winds, the cyclone season is returning, with increased vigilance required as the likelihood of cyclone formation increases in the Bay of Bengal.
A large number of earthquakes have been recorded throughout the past 2 months. The increased seismic activity has not only been occurring within the region, but also on a global scale. During Week 34 of 2018 (from the 20th to the 26th of August), a total of 232 earthquakes were recorded across the Pacific “Ring of Fire” and its adjacent tectonic plates. Of these recorded earthquakes, 37 (15.9%) were recorded to be M 5.0 and above. Of these major earthquakes (≥M 5.0), 25 (67.6%) occurred within a 48-hour period between the 20th and 22nd of August. Of the 232 earthquakes across the world, 32 (13.8%) were reported within ASEAN region, of which 11 (34.4%) were reported to be M 5.0 and above. The overall increase in seismic activity is currently being monitored by seismological agencies, in the anticipation of increased volcanic activity, earthquakes, tsunamis and other resultant hazards. Nevertheless, during the last few months, the activity of volcanoes in the Philippines and Indonesia have remained within their normal threshold, and have experienced no changes to any of their alert levels.
OCTOBER 2018 OUTLOOK (FORECAST FROM
THE ASEAN SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE)
The Southwest Monsoon season is expected to transition to the inter-monsoon period around mid-October, and persist for some weeks before giving way to the Northeast Monsoon season in late-November/December.
During the coming weeks, the prevailing south-easterly or south-westerly winds are expected to gradually weaken to become light and variable in direction. A gradual strengthening of north-easterly winds can be expected in the later part of the Oct-Nov-Dec (OND) season. Characteristically, this is accompanied by a southward shift of the monsoon rain-band, which will bring more rainfall over the southern ASEAN region. The northern ASEAN region will experience lighter rainfall as the season progresses, while in equatorial areas, below-average rainfall is forecast to continue for October. Temperature-wise, above-average conditions are expected over many parts of ASEAN, with warmer-than-average conditions expected over the equatorial ASEAN – particularly in Borneo and south-eastern Sumatra.
In northern ASEAN, occasional hotspots may emerge as drier conditions set in toward the later part of the OND season, however, should remain subdued in the early parts due to wet weather. In southern ASEAN, brief periods of dry weather may contribute to increased hotspot activities in October. This could lead to an occurrence of transboundary haze affecting some parts of the region. However, an increase in shower activities with the onset of the inter-monsoon period will help subdue hotspot activities. Isolated hotspots may develop occasionally, but these hotspots are expected to be short-lived and localised. In equatorial ASEAN, drier-than-usual weather could to lead to an escalation in hotspot activities and an increased risk of trans-boundary smoke haze.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services as well as Geological Services of ASEAN countries should be consulted.
Written by : Mizan Bisri, Qing Yuan Pang
DISCLAIMER
AHA Centre’s estimation is based on data and information shared by National Disaster Management Organisations (NDMOs) and other relevant agencies from ASEAN Member States, international organisations and news agencies. Further information on each recorded-significant disaster, description and detail of data and information are available at: http://adinet.ahacentre.org/reports.
ONE ASEAN ONE RESPONSE
FOR TYPHOON MANGKHUT
By mid-September it was all-hands-on-deck in the AHA Centre, with the monitoring team tracking the formation of largest storm cell of the year so far, as it made its way across the Pacific Ocean with a population of millions across the Philippines directly in its path. Communities along the nation’s northern coastline and outer islands were being evacuated, as preparation was well underway for the onset of Super Typhoon Mangkhut (Ompong). On the 15th of September, Typhoon Mangkhut made landfall in Cagayan Province, continuing its path westward with extreme winds and lashing rain, and leaving in its trail over 2.5 million people affected across the Philippines.
Afterwards, a total of 8 provinces and seven cities/municipalities have been announced under state of emergencies, with widespread damage to homes, infrastructure and livelihoods. Typhoon Mangkhut – that had an actual diameter larger than 2013’s Typhoon Haiyan – claimed over 50 lives, with hundreds more injured, and over 180,000 homes either fully or partially damaged. Total damage has been estimated at over USD 6 million, with communities particularly affected by secondary hazards that accompanied the typhoon, such as flooding and landslides. However, was it not for the coordinated effort in the days prior to the storm by the various national and sub-national agencies, alongside communities themselves, loss of life and damage could have been far worse.
“We pre-positioned the Cagayan Valley Response Team in advance, with early evacuation taking place two days prior to the typhoon’s landfall. We also estimated the numbers of people likely to be affected, and provided hygiene kits, non-food items, and generators. These preparedness measures managed to minimise casualties in our region”, explained Mr. Dante Balao, the Regional Director of Office of Civil Defense (OCD) Regional Office II, in Tuguegarao, Cagayan.
Alongside tracking the progress of Typhoon Mangkhut in the weeks and days leading-up to the disaster, the AHA Centre was also engaged with the Philippines Government, through the Philippines’ National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), in both the preparation and response to the storm. At a later stage, the ASEAN Emergency Response and Assessment Team (ERAT) was mobilised to provide information management and assessment report as the emergency phase coming to an end. On the 15th of September, just hours after the typhoon made landfall, the AHA Centre In-Country Liaison Team arrived in the Philippines, to establish direct communication with the NDRRMC in Manila and in affected areas, and to facilitate ASEAN’s assistance to those in need.
In response to the disaster, the AHA Centre mobilised relief items valued at over USD 275,000 to communities across the affected regions, including 30 tonnes of rice, four generator sets, and 2,000 rolls of tarpaulins. During the handover ceremony on September 24th, Undersecretary Ricardo B. Jalad, the Executive Director of NDRRMC and the Administrator of the Philippines’ Office of Civil Defense showed his appreciation for ASEAN’s support when he stated “I would like to thank and express my deep gratitude to the AHA Centre for facilitating this assistance”.
While Typhoon Mangkhut was a disastrous event for the Philippines and the ASEAN region, it presented an opportunity for the AHA Centre and ASEAN-ERAT to engage on a new element as part of the region’s ongoing efforts to improve disaster management practices. Three ASEAN-ERAT information management specialists were deployed to support the NDRRMC office with data analysis, data visualisation and report writing. One of the ASEAN-ERAT Level 2 members deployed to the Philippines, Adiratna Wira from Malaysia, recognised the importance of information management support for response agencies during disasters. “Aside from the actual products developed, there was great benefit for both the NDRRMC and ASEAN-ERAT members”, said Adiratna. “There was increased understanding in the roles and ways of working for each party, which could speed-up a range of processes and information distribution in the future.”
On the last day of the ASEAN-ERAT’s deployment, Mr. Edgar Posadas, the Director of Operations Service and Spokesperson of the NDRRMC emphasised, “we know that our region is always at risk of disasters, but with neighbours like you and friends like you, we know that things will be moving forward. We are thankful to our ASEAN neighbours and the AHA Centre for your help. The ASEAN region is advancing, we don’t have to go beyond our borders (to respond to disasters), so those beyond the ASEAN corridors can attend to their own disasters. I think it’s a way to go now, everybody is trying to be self-sufficient. We have to be ready should simultaneous disasters are taking place. So, the more capacity that we have and the more prepared we are, the better it will be for the people”.
Written by: Shintya Kurniawan | Photo : AHA Centre
MR.HARLAN V. HALE
Mr. Harlan Hale, the Regional Advisor for Disaster Response and Risk Reduction for USAID’s Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance, is one of the world’s most experienced and renowned humanitarian logistics and disaster risk reduction experts. Spending over thirty years working on the ground with both natural disasters and human induced conflicts has equipped him with the vast array of knowledge required to advise his many colleagues in the USAID and other U.S. Government Agencies. His working experiences include many natural disasters and conflicts across the world, including the Kosovo conflict in Eastern Europe, Rwandan conflict in Africa and the Padang earthquake in Indonesia just to name a few.
Starting out over thirty years ago as a volunteer with the US Peace Corps, Mr. Hale learned quickly the importance of logistics and transportation for people’s livelihoods. He experienced the reality of limited transportation in Central Africa, resulting in adverse impacts on prices of goods, access to vaccination and health services, and low levels of trade between cities. Through this, he concluded that if he could choose to change one thing to cause a large-scale impact, it would be the enhancement of transportation and logistics in the region.
After some time working in transportation and logistics, Mr. Hale saw the impact that natural disaster was having on his work and the communities around him, and felt some of such disasters and their affects could be avoided or at least mitigated. Considering this, he raises the analogy of a young fire-fighter who “will focus on extinguishing the fire again and again. However, as time goes by, he may start to ask, ‘why did the building catch fire in the first place?’” These experiences saw Mr. Hale’s work begin transitioning into Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). Such realisations and experiences, through his long journey of different nations and regions, now sees him working as a Regional Advisor for Disaster Response and Risk Reduction for the USAID office based in Jakarta, Indonesia.
Mr. Hale sees his current role as being aimed at enabling other people to do things. He advises US missions, embassies, USAID in the region, the office in Washington, UN agency partners, implementing NGOs and “practically anybody who asks,” he says. When a disaster strikes, Mr. Hale and his team will assess the situation, then advise whether US assistance is required and welcomed. Mr. Hale prioritises practical and technical support, preferring boots on the ground in order to support the needs of the affected population. He identifies the importance of finding gaps and determining how such gaps can be filled. Alongside this, Mr. Hale highlights the importance of investigating alternative support ideas such as cash-based assistance, which he feels provides more flexibility and opportunity for communities to define and fulfil their own specific needs after a response. Such ideas and opportunities are an area that he constantly addresses during his consulting work.
His move from Africa to Asia formed a major challenge and transition for Mr. Hale, with one of the largest and influential factors on his new role formed by the enormity of Asia’s population. “With this level of population density, no matter what takes place, the scale and impact will be huge” he says. “In Africa, the population was smaller, and there were a lot of open spaces.” “In our region things are more complex” Mr. Hale continues. “The people are much more diverse and with different needs.”
For Southeast Asia itself, as one of the most disaster-prone regions in the world, Mr. Hale sees an increasing awareness towards disaster risk reduction, particularly within the region’s governments. He highlights the positives of ASEAN’s economic growth, while also remaining wary that such growth increases the threat of having ‘more to lose’. “Buildings, facilities, transportation, and many other things can be destroyed in a natural disaster” he reminds us. “People should start investing more in DRR to prevent huge economic losses.” DRR activities can help communities become more self-reliant by giving them the tools and training to better withstand the impacts of disasters. Within this Mr. Hale highlights the importance of DRR being undertaken not only at government level, but importantly on an individual level as well.
Teamwork forms one of Mr. Hale’s key aspects when identifying impact within disaster response efforts. Strong teamwork, with strong team members, is much more likely to have positive results than individuals ‘trying to save the world’. Strong teams can also result in more positive experiences for a team’s members, as Mr. Hale has witnessed the support and influence that strong teams can have on decreasing stress and sharing the array of challenges that arise during responses. He also highlights the important role of women within responses across all levels, and the need to continue the drive for more gender balance and women’s empowerment within the disaster management field.
Through his time in the ASEAN region, Mr. Hale has also recognised the importance in the cooperation between NDMOs of ASEAN nations and their work through the AHA Centre as a significant step forward for disaster management in the region. The commitment and engagement of each NDMO shows a desire to learn from one another and from outside, which he believes will surely result in increased capacity throughout ASEAN disaster management practices. He also highlighted the importance of unity within ASEAN, especially the idea of support being provided by the region when one of its nations is affected by disaster. He says that ASEAN nations are like neighbours, or even families, and that families always help each other out, with the ASEAN region representing one giant family overall.
Written by : Christella Feni, William Shea | Photo : USAID, AHA Centre