MONTHLY DISASTER REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
JULY & AUGUST | DISASTER MONITORING & ANALYSIS
(DMA) UNIT, AHA CENTRE
GENERAL OVERVIEW OF JULY AND AUGUST 2018
A two-week period in July saw the development of 5 tropical storms, one of which had a severe affect on the northern ASEAN region. The Southwest monsoon (refer to figure 1.) brought with it heavy torrential rains, resulting in flooding through the Mekong River region. Hydro-meteorological disasters formed the main hazards during this period, and are expected to persist with continued rain over the northern ASEAN region, coupled with drier conditions in southern part of ASEAN.
In contrast to the situation in the northern ASEAN region, droughts in 16 municipalities have been reported across seven consecutive weeks thus far, with one reported wildfire occurrence in the past month. The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre detected hotspots in Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra during July. General conditions for August remained similar to July, with high rainfall experienced over the northern region, impacting countries in the Mekong region and northern parts of the Philippines.
Throughout the last 2 months, large numbers of earthquakes were recorded and experienced by ASEAN communities. The increased seismic activity is not only restricted to the region,with the phenomenon also seen globally. A total of 232 earthquakes were recorded internationally between the 20th and 26th of August along the Pacific “Ring of Fire” and its adjacent tectonic plates. Of these recorded earthquakes, 37 (15.9%) were recorded at a scale of M 5.0 or above, with 25 (67.6%) of these major earthquakes (≥M 5.0) occurring within a span of 48 hours between August 20th to 22nd. Of these 232 earthquakes, 32 (13.8%) were reported within the ASEAN region. Of the 32 recorded in the region, 11 (34.4%) were reported to be M 5.0 and above. The increasing seismic activity is currently being observed by seismological agencies in anticipation of increased volcanic activity, earthquakes, tsunamis and other related hazards. Nevertheless, in July and August 2018, activity of volcanoes in Philippines and Indonesia stayed within their normal threshold, with no changes in any of their alert levels
The prevailing Southwest Monsoon season is expected to persist until October 2018, with prevailing winds in the region blowing from the southeast or southwest. Climatologically, the Southwest Monsoon season is characterised by rainy conditions in the northern ASEAN region, and dry conditions in the southern ASEAN region.
OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST-OCTOBER 2018
Warmer than average conditions can be expected over the equatorial ASEAN region, especially in Borneo and south-eastern Sumatra, while near-average or slightly above-average temperatures are forecasted over most other areas during the August-October season.
For the equatorial ASEAN region, below-average rainfall is forecasted between August and October. The drier-than-usual weather could to lead to an escalation in hotspot activities and an increased risk of transboundary smoke haze.
Near-average rainfall is forecasted for the rest of the region, including the northern ASEAN region. Hotspot activities in the northern ASEAN region are likely to remain subdued due to wet weather. The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant National Meteorological and Hydrological Services as well as Geological Services should be consulted.
Written by : Mizan Bisri, Qing Yuan Pang
DISCLAIMER
AHA Centre’s estimation is based on data and information shared by National Disaster Management Organisations (NDMOs) and other relevant agencies from ASEAN Member States, international organisations and news agencies. Further information on each recorded-significant disaster, description and details of data and information are available at: http://adinet.ahacentre.org/reports.
ONE ASEAN ONE RESPONSE
FOR LOMBOK
During August 2018 the AHA Centre once again evidenced ASEAN’s solidarity for disaster-affected population in the Southeast Asian region, this time supporting communities in the well-known tourist destination of Lombok, West Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia. The area was recently the epicentre of multiple earthquakes, with the initial major quake recorded at M 6.4 on Sunday the 29th of July. A week later, on the 5th of August, a larger M 7 earthquake hit the already-affected area, increasing numbers of casualties and causing greater damaged to buildings and livelihoods within the Lombok region. The main shock also triggered a tsunami warning, which thankfully did not result in an actual tsunami event. However, throughout the month of August, over 1000 aftershocks were recorded by the Meteorological, Climatology, and Geological Agency of Indonesia (BMKG), with the region still remaining vulnerable to quakes during the ongoing recovery phase.
Following the main earthquake on the 5th of August 2018, the AHA Centre intensified its cooperation with Indonesian National Disaster Management Authority (BNPB), which had been ongoing since the initial quake in late July. Upon receiving notification of the second earthquake, the AHA Centre immediately deployed a staff member to the field, provided information management and translation support for BNPB, as well as facilitated the deployment of an ASEAN Emergency Response and Assessment Team (ERAT) to the affected region. A little later, the AHA Centre obtained a green-light to mobilise relief items from the ASEAN emergency stockpile in Subang, Malaysia. These relief items – worth approximately USD $154,438 – were picked-up by the BNPB using a chartered flight, arriving in Praya Airport, Lombok, in three batches between early to mid-August.
For Lombok, earthquake events are not particularly new, with notable earthquakes recorded in the region from as early as the year 1856. Consolidated data from the United States Geological Survey and the Indonesian Meteorological and Climatology Agency (BMKG) also noted that major earthquakes above M 6 occurred on the island in 1970, 1972, 1978, 1979, and 2000. Based on the latest National Disaster Risk Index – published by BNPB in 2016 – Lombok is categorised as a medium to high-scale earthquake-prone area. Considering these vulnerabilities and risks, the resettlement areas currently underconstruction will use similar earthquake-resistant technology that has been adopted through the post-earthquake recovery periods in Aceh and Nias, Sumatera, Indonesia.
“Indonesia is part of the ASEAN community, and the BNPB has been working closely with the ASEAN coordinating agency for disaster management, or AHA Centre. All Heads of State and Government of ASEAN countries have agreed to stand as one, whenever natural disasters happen in neighbouring states. Based on the One ASEAN One Response Declaration, Indonesia trusts the AHA Centre to provide additional logistical support that is required for the emergency response. For example, this Mobile Storage Unit we stand in that can serve as a portable warehouse, and family tents that can provide shelters for the displaced communities”, said H.E Willem Rampangilei, the Chief of BNPB, in between the emergency responses in Lombok.
On a similar note, the Executive Director of the AHA Centre, Ms. Adelina Kamal, stated that “the ASEAN relief items belong to all ASEAN countries, including Indonesia. When a disaster occurs and relief items are required, ASEAN Member State can access the regional stockpile, and the AHA Centre will facilitate its mobilisation to the affected areas. We would like to show our appreciation to the BNPB for the confidence given to the AHA Centre in complementing the government’s life-saving efforts on the ground. Our partnership strengthens the vision embodied in the ASEAN Declaration on One ASEAN One Response”.
All ten ASEAN Member States have recognised the AHA Centre as the primary regional disaster management coordinating agency in ASEAN. Indonesia has been actively involved in the establishment of the AHA Centre, and has been hosting the AHA Centre since it first opened in November 2011. The mission to Lombok is the AHA Centre’s fifth response this year, bringing the total responses to 23 emergencies in 7 ASEAN countries since the AHA Centre’s establishment.
Written by: Shintya Kurniawan | Photo : AHA Centre
MR. KENNETH MAK
A 15-year veteran with the Singapore Civil Defence Force (SCDF), Mr. Kenneth Mak became an ASEAN Emergency Response and Assessment Team (ASEAN-ERAT) member after participating in the 6th training in 2016. His current work with the SCDF’s HazMat (Hazardous Materials) department has strengthened the capacity of ASEAN-ERAT to undertake their work, particularly in response to the dumpsite fires in Myanmar earlier this year. In an interview with The Column, Kenneth offered some unique insights regarding the Myanmar response, the ASEAN-ERAT programme, and similarities between the SCDF and other ASEAN bodies regarding disaster management.
The Myanmar dumpsite fires of late April/early May, 2018 were Kenneth’s first deployment with ASEAN-ERAT, as the region called upon his specialised background related to hazardous materials in response to the disaster. With the impact of the ongoing fires beginning to have a significant impact on nearby communities, Kenneth deployed with other ASEAN-ERAT members to provide expertise on controlling and extinguishing the fires, as well as provide support related to health effects that were increasing during the disaster. “The main request from Yangon city was that they were looking for a firefighting and hazard specialist to give recommendations on the operations. This is basically what I do –firefighting and hazardous material operations – so I was quite comfortable” remembers Kenneth. The context of this being a human-induced disaster is not lost on him either, as he states “Myanmar dumpsite fire was unique compared with other responses, because it was not only a natural disaster, but a fire incident – a first for the AHA Centre and also a first for ERAT deployment”.
Joining the ASEAN-ERAT programme has been an interesting experience for Kenneth, as it has allowed him to engage further with disaster response across the region. While the Myanmar dumpsite response stands as his maiden engagement thus far, Kenneth highlights the importance and relevance of the training undertaken upon joining the ASEAN-ERAT programme. The overall authenticity of the field exercise that forms a significant part of the programme training is a key highlight for Kenneth, preparing participants for deployment within a context that is as ‘real’ as possible. “Sometimes we thought that during the training the scenario that was given to us was actually real. It is a true reflection of what was going to happen. The training actually geared us up very well before the deployment” Kenneth remembers.
Similarities between his work with the SCDF and now as an ASEAN-ERAT member are particularly notable for Kenneth. He notes the reality that often there is a link between industrial or human-influenced disasters and natural disasters. “We have to realise that many environmental emergencies may be indirectly caused by natural disasters, such as earthquake or flood”, he states. Kenneth also sees strong similarities between the responses undertaken by companies for industrial disasters, and natural disaster responses implemented by local governments. For industrial disaster responses, it is the companies who most understand their surrounding environment and the situation at hand, and this is mirrored by the role of local governments within a regional natural disaster response. “We need to work with the local government so they understand the risks they are facing, and if anything happens, support the development of a contingency plan for response”, he says. “The government holds a similar role to companies who are the engaged in the disaster site, as they know the premises well, and they know what they are handling”.
“We need to work with the local government so they know the risks they are facing, and if anything happens, support the development of a contingency plan for response”, he says. They are similar to a company, as “they are the nearest, they know the premises well, and they know what they are handling”.
Overall, the value of ASEAN-ERAT, and the role of the AHA Centre, is a key highlight for Kenneth. “I think in terms of relevancy of ERAT, I think it is unique. Because you know there are 10 ASEAN countries and we have enjoyed a close working relationship. We are familiar to ASEAN cultures too”, he says. This is where the role of such programmes and institutions are key – “So, when we go to the affected country, they are willing to accept us more readily because we are engaging with each other more frequently”. Kenneth finishes by considering the future, and the role of ASEAN-ERAT both regionally and internationally.
“Over the years, we will build out our expertise, in terms of ERAT response. We will build and can share our own experience that is unique to us”.
Written by : Valerie Bayhon, William Shea | Photo : AHA Centre, personal archive
ASIAN MINISTERIAL CONFERENCE ON
DISASTER RISK REDUCTION (AMCDRR), ULAANBAATAR,
MONGOLIA, JULY 3RD – 6TH 2018.
The Asian Ministerial Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction (AMCDRR) brings together a diverse range of Asian stakeholders and policy makers to discuss latest developments in disaster risk reduction (DRR), of which forms a key element of disaster management efforts across the globe. The biennial meeting was this year held in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, from the 3rd to the 6th of July, 2018, with representatives from the AHA Centre in attendance. This meeting forms a key activity in the Asian region’s efforts to implement the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 – with global and regional risk reduction platforms central to its overall implementation success.
While DRR is not a specific focus of the AHA Centre’s direct work, the meeting retains high importance and relevance, as it provides the AHA Centre the opportunity to engage with its partners, share knowledge, and gain relevant insight into actions that may benefit the AHA Centre’s work – particularly related to disaster monitoring and capacity development. 2018’s AMCDRR covered a range of important and strategic topics, including technical sessions on issues such as understanding risk, thematic sessions including private sector interventions, and public events raising topics such as World Tsunami Awareness Day. The meeting also resulted in the formulation of the Ulaanbaatar Declaration – a declaration from all engaged nations that recognises current disaster issues, calls on government and other stakeholders to increase and continue their disaster risk reduction efforts, and resolves to implement all outcomes and efforts stated within the declaration.
For the AHA Centre itself, particular value was gained through engagement in sessions regarding early warning and alert systems, which was a central topic during the 2018 meeting. The implementation and improvement of early warning and alert systems would serve to support increased speed and early engagement within the AHA Centre’s disaster response efforts. As a result, such improvements could lead to stronger instances of early recovery. The AHA Centre was also interested to learn further from civil society organisations about their initiative to develop CSO-led surge capacity, in which CSOs can also mobilise their own assets and capacities during disaster response. Integrating such ideas within the ASEAN Joint Disaster Response Plan (AJDRP), for example, could increase the capacity and coordination within disaster responses across the ASEAN region through the use already-existing assets. Strategies such as this also provide strong evidence for the importance of the ongoing development of the ASEAN Standards and Certification for Experts in Disaster Management (ASCEND) project – increasing its strategic relevance to foster a united and strong ASEAN region under the implementation of the One ASEAN, One Response vision.
Written by : Dipo Summa | Photo: AHA Centre