GENERAL REVIEW OF FEBRUARY 2021

February 2021 was characterised by a significantly higher number of disaster occurrences in comparison to the average from February during the previous five years – with a six-fold increase overall. In-line with this increase, statistics show significantly higher comparative numbers of affected people (almost 6 times the February five-year average), internally displaced (7 ½ times), damaged houses (36 times), casualties (2 ½ times), and missing persons (7 times). A majority of recorded disasters in February occurred in Indonesia, over 70% of which were floods. These increases can be largely attributed to the Northeast Monsoon conditions that brought wetter conditions to Indonesia (Java Island and regions around it), causing flooding, rain-induced landslides and heavy winds. The effects of a frontal system’s tail end were also evident in eastern parts of the Philippines, which was also subject to Tropical Storm DUJUAN that affected 272,500 people living in the area. La Niña conditions are still present in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and continue to be associated with wetter conditions for Southeast Asia.

A total of 32 significant earthquakes (M≥5.0) were reported in the region during February 2021, although they caused limited damages to populations and infrastructure. Volcanic activity was reported for numerous Alert Level III volcanoes – including Mount Merapi, Sinabung, Semeru, and Karangetang in Indonesia – all of which remain under close monitoring. Recent volcanic activity was also reported for Ibu, Dukono, and Raung mountains in Indonesia, and Taal in the Philippines, but there were no significant related damages.

SEASONAL OUTLOOK

According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), the prevailing Northeast Monsoon conditions are expected to continue into March 2021. During this period, the prevailing northeasterly or easterly winds over the northern ASEAN region could strengthen at times due to the influence of high pressure systems moving eastwards over continental Asia. In addition to the traditional dry season over the northern ASEAN region, areas in the equatorial parts of the southern ASEAN region could occasionally experience dry and windy conditions during March, as they are in the dry phase of the Northeast Monsoon. Inter-monsoon conditions are expected to develop in April and continue into May 2021. The prevailing winds across the ASEAN region are expected to be light and variable, and an increase in shower activities is forecast for the ASEAN region during this period.

For the March to May 2021 period, models predict above-normal rainfall over much of the ASEAN region north of the equator. La Niña conditions are present over the tropical Pacific Ocean, with climate models predicting La Niña conditions to weaken over the boreal spring (March – June). La Niña conditions are typically associated with wetter-than-normal conditions over the Southeast Asia region. While below-average rainfall is expected for much of Indonesia’s Sumatra, Borneo and Sulawesi islands for March – May, these areas tend to be less influenced by La Niña conditions at this time of year. Warmer-than-average temperatures are expected over the equatorial region for the period, with much of mainland Southeast Asia, except Myanmar, experiencing below to near-average temperatures.

Despite the slight chance of above-normal rainfall outlook over the Mekong sub-region in March-May 2021, dry conditions are expected to persist, as it is still the traditional dry season for the Mekong sub-region. During this period, the hotspot situation and risk of transboundary haze occurrence in the sub-region are likely to remain elevated. The gradual return of wet weather conditions from April 2021 onwards is expected to bring some respite to elevated hotspot and haze occurrences over parts of the sub-region. In the southern ASEAN region, hotspot activities should generally subdued during this outlook period. However, during periods of drier weather, there may be brief occurrences of isolated hotspots with localised smoke plumes, in particular over parts of the equatorial region where below-normal rainfall is forecast.

The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general and based on the latest runs from models provided by the SEA RCC-Network LRF node. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN Member States’ National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

Sources : ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet), ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), ASEAN Disaster Monitoring and Response System (DMRS), Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB), Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG), Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG), National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), Philippine Institute for Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS), National Disaster Management Agency – Malaysia (NADMA), Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation – Thailand (DDPM), Viet Nam Disaster Management Authority (VNDMA)

Written by : Keith Paolo Landicho, Sadhu Zukhruf Janottama,  Lawrence Anthony Dimailig

GENERAL REVIEW OF JANUARY 2021

The figures of recorded disasters for the first month of 2021 were significantly higher than the five-year average for the same period. The region reported around a seven-fold increase in the overall number of disaster occurrences. Despite this large difference in disaster numbers, the number of affected and displaced persons for January 2021 were only around 1.5 times higher. On another note, significantly higher number of damaged houses, casualties, injuries, and number of missing persons were observed compared to January averages. The staggering impact on ASEAN populations was largely driven by the M6.2 earthquake in West Sulawesi during the second week of January. Close to 100,000 individuals were affected and displaced by this event, which also claimed over 100 lives. Outside of this earthquake, almost 80% of recorded disasters were floods, which can be attributed to the Northeast Monsoon conditions. This is characterised by wetter conditions in the southern ASEAN region, particularly Indonesia where 70 of the 86 flood disasters were recorded. These figures also do not yet include other hydro-meteorological disasters – such as storms and rain-induced landslides – which have also been reported during January 2021.

A total of 29 significant earthquakes (M≥5.0) were reported in the region for January 2021. As previously mentioned, the M6.2 earthquake in West Sulawesi on 15 January resulted in significant loss and impact to local populations and infrastructure. Volcanic activity was reported for Alert Level III volcanoes in Indonesia, with Mount Merapi, Sinabung, Semeru, and Karangetang under close monitoring. Recent volcanic activity was also reported for the mountains of Ibu, Dukono, and Raung in Indonesia (Alert Level II), and Mayon in the Philippines (Alert Level I), but there were no reports of significant damage.

SEASONAL OUTLOOK

According to the seasonal forecast by the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) for February to April 2021, Northeast Monsoon conditions persisted over the ASEAN region in January 2021. The northern ASEAN region continues to experience its traditional dry season as the monsoon rain band lies south of the Equator during the Northeast Monsoon. The prevailing northeasterly or easterly winds over the region could strengthen at times under the influence of high pressure systems moving eastwards over continental Asia. During February, Peninsular Malaysia and Singapore could also at times experience dry and windy conditions as they enter the dry phase of the Northeast Monsoon. Elsewhere in the southern ASEAN region, shower activities are expected with the prevailing winds blowing from the northwest or northeast. Light and variable wind conditions are expected across the ASEAN region as inter-monsoon conditions develop in March-April 2021.

For the February to April 2021 period, models predict above-average rainfall over much of the ASEAN region north of the equator. La Niña conditions are still present over the tropical Pacific Ocean, with climate models predicting La Niña conditions to last through the first quarter of 2021, but weakening during the boreal spring (March – May). La Niña conditions are typically associated with wetter-than-average conditions over the Southeast Asia region.

Warmer-than-average temperatures are expected over the eastern Maritime Continent as well as Myanmar. Much of mainland Southeast Asia, except Myanmar, may experience below-to near-normal temperatures. As the traditional dry season for the Mekong sub-region becomes firmly established during February to April 2021, dry conditions are forecast to persist despite above-average rainfall outlooks for parts of the sub-region. This is expected to cause hotspot situations in the sub-region to remain elevated, and an increased risk of transboundary haze may also be expected. In some parts of the southern ASEAN region isolated hotspots with localised smoke plumes may develop at times during periods of drier weather.

Sources : ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet), ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), ASEAN Disaster Monitoring and Response System (DMRS), Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB), Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG), Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG), National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), Philippine Institute for Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS), National Disaster Management Agency – Malaysia (NADMA), Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation – Thailand (DDPM), Viet Nam Disaster Management Authority (VNDMA)

Written by : Keith Paolo Landicho, Sadhu Zukhruf Janottama,  Lawrence Anthony Dimailig

GENERAL REVIEW OF DECEMBER 2020

December 2020 recorded a significant shift from the five-year average (2015-2019) for ASEAN disaster statistics. Higher numbers of disaster occurrences and affected population were recorded, but at the same time there were lower figures for displacement, casualties, and damage to houses. The number of disasters was six times higher than the five-year average, 3.5 times higher than December of the previous year, and almost two times higher than the previous month (November 2020). Flood events made-up the majority (73.5%) of recorded disaster occurrences, with most such events occurring in Indonesia. This weather was influenced by the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which propagated eastwards towards the Pacific Ocean, dissipating towards the end of the month due to the La Niña conditions. Wetter conditions for most of the ASEAN region were also largely due to La Niña, with this forecast to continue until January 2021.

A total of 26 significant earthquakes (M≥5.0) were reported in the region by local authorities during December 2020, with one earthquake resulting in minor damages in Central Java. Recent volcanic activities were reported for volcanoes for Mount Ili Lewotolo and Sinabung in Indonesia, resulting in closer monitoring together with Mount Merapi and Karangetang volcanoes. Recent volcanic activity was also reported for lower alert level mountains including Indonesia’s Ibu, Semeru, and Dukono, as well as Mayon, Taal, Bulusan, and Kanlaon in the Philippines, but there were limited impacts and damage as a result.

SEASONAL OUTLOOK

Northeast Monsoon conditions prevailed over the ASEAN region in December 2020. During this monsoon season, the northern ASEAN region typically experiences its traditional dry season, with the prevailing winds blowing mainly from the northeast or east. On the other hand, the southern ASEAN region experiences wet conditions during the initial months of the Northeast Monsoon, and experiences dry and occasionally windy conditions from end January/early February until March, with the prevailing winds blowing mainly from the northwest or north.

For the January to March 2021 period, models predict above-average rainfall over eastern parts of the Maritime Continent and southern Viet Nam. La Niña conditions are still present over the tropical Pacific Ocean, with climate models predicting La Niña conditions to last throughout the first quarter of 2021. La Niña conditions are typically associated with wetter-than-normal conditions over the Southeast Asia region, making hydro-meteo-climatological disasters and derivative disasters –such as rain-induced landslides – more likely.

Sources : ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet), ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), ASEAN Disaster Monitoring and Response System (DMRS), Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB), Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG), Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG), National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), Philippine Institute for Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS), National Disaster Management Agency – Malaysia (NADMA), Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation – Thailand (DDPM), Viet Nam Disaster Management Authority (VNDMA)

Written by : Keith Paolo Landicho, Lawrence Anthony Dimailig

GENERAL REVIEW OF NOVEMBER 2020

While number of recorded disaster occurrences (56) for the month of November 2020 is 37% lower than the previous month (October 2020 – 89 disasters), it is three times higher than the five-year average for November (2015-2019). Figures also show significantly higher numbers for affected people, internally displaced people, damaged houses, deaths, injuries, and missing people. As predicted by the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) in their previous seasonal outlook, wetter conditions for most of the ASEAN region and La Niña phenomenon (which bring wetter-than-normal conditions likely to persist until January 2021) were realised as forecast. Coincidingly, hydro-meteo-climatological hazards were constant during November 2020, an almost threefold increase in floods, two times more rain-induced landslides, twice as many storms, and more than ten times the amount of high winds reported. Aside from these, many of the higher figures are also attributed largely to the effects of Typhoons GONI and VAMCO across multiple regions of the Philippines, and partially into Central Viet Nam.

For geophysical events, a total of 21 significant earthquakes (M≥5.0) were reported in the region for November 2020 by local authorities. Volcanic activities were reported for Indonesia’s Merapi, Sinabung, and Ili Lewotolok mountains, with all under Alert Level III and being closely monitored. Recent volcanic activity was also reported for Ibu, Semeru, and Dukono mountains in Indonesia, but there were no reports of significant damage. The recent eruption of Mount Ili Lewotolok highlights the importance of early warning systems and early action to reduce humanitarian impacts, even more so in tectonically active countries like Indonesia and the Philippines.

SEASONAL OUTLOOK

Northeast Monsoon conditions were present over much of the ASEAN region by the last week of November 2020. During the Northeast Monsoon, the winds over the ASEAN region are expected to blow mainly from the northeast or northwest. The northern ASEAN region is expected to enter its traditional dry season, while in the southern ASEAN region generally wet conditions can be expected, as the monsoon rain band moves southwards over the equatorial regions.

For the December 2020 to February 2021 period, models predict near-normal to above-normal rainfall over much of the ASEAN region, except for the equatorial region, where near-normal to below-normal rainfall is predicted. La Niña conditions are present over the tropical Pacific Ocean, with climate models predicting moderate to strong La Niña conditions during the period. La Niña conditions are typically associated with wetter-than-normal conditions over the Southeast Asia region, and are expected to weaken during the boreal spring (March – May).

Warmer-than-normal temperature is expected to continue over much of the Maritime Continent for the next three months. Parts of Mainland Southeast Asia may experience below to near-normal temperatures.

With the onset of the Northeast Monsoon, a gradual increase in hotspot activities and associated smoke haze over the northern ASEAN region may be expected from December 2020 under the influence of dry conditions. Hotspot activities in the southern ASEAN region are forecast to remain subdued, mainly due to wet conditions resulting from the monsoon rain band located over the southern ASEAN region.

Data Sources: ASEAN Disaster Information Network, ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre

Written by : Keith Paolo Landicho, Lawrence Anthony Dimailig

GENERAL REVIEW OF OCTOBER 2020

A total of 89 disaster events were recorded for the month of October 2020, which is almost twice the amount recorded in September 2020 (45), and is eight times the amount recorded in October 2019. The number of recorded disasters for the month is also six times that of October’s previous five-year average. Along the same lines, the figures show significantly higher occurrences of affected people, internally displaced people, damaged houses, casualties and missing persons when compared to the previous 5-year averages, however, there was a decrease in the number of disaster-related injuries recorded. Such high figures can be attributed to the impact of tropical cyclones that affected the Philippines and Viet Nam (namely Tropical Depression OFEL and Typhoon MOLAVE). A combination of weather systems has also been reported as affecting both Cambodia and Lao PDR according to the National Disaster Management Office of Lao PDR and the National Committee on Disaster Management of Cambodia. Additionally, with the onset of La Niña conditions, torrential rains became more likely across the ASEAN region, and with this, the potential for hydro-meteorological and climatological disasters is significantly higher than previous five-year averages – according to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre and the Bureau of Meteorology Australia.

On the geophysical front, a total of 33 significant earthquakes (M≥5.0) were reported in the region during October 2020. Ongoing volcanic activity was reported for the Indonesian mountains of Ibu, Semeru, Dukono, and Kerinci, as well as Bulusan, Kanlaon and Taal mountains in the Philippines. No significant damage occurred as a result of volcanic activity during October 2020, which in some cases can be attributed to improved preparedness and response mechanisms around the active volcanic areas.

SEASONAL OUTLOOK

The Southwest Monsoon gradually made way for inter-monsoon conditions during early November 2020, as the prevailing winds over the ASEAN region became generally weak and variable. Inter-monsoon conditions are characterised by increased shower activities over most parts of southern ASEAN, as the monsoon rain band lies close to the equatorial region. The inter-monsoon conditions are expected to last for around one month, before transitioning to the Northeast Monsoon. During the Northeast Monsoon, the northern ASEAN region enters its traditional dry season, while the southern ASEAN region can expect more rainy weather.

For the November 2020 to January 2021 period, above-average rainfall is predicted for the ASEAN region south of the equator, as well as the Philippines and parts of Viet Nam, Lao PDR, and Cambodia. La Niña conditions are present over the tropical Pacific Ocean, with most climate models predicting La Niña conditions to persist for this period, of which will typically result in wetter-than-average conditions over the Southeast Asia region. In turn, the region should expect a potential increase in hydro-meteo-climatological hazards (floods, flash-floods, rain-induced landslides).

While warmer-than-average temperatures are expected to continue over much of the Maritime Continent for the next three months, parts of Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet Nam may experience below to near-normal temperatures.

With wetter conditions expected in November, the hotspot activities in the southern ASEAN region are forecast to remain subdued, although isolated hotpots and localised smoke plumes may still be detected during brief periods of drier weather. A gradual increase in hotspot activities may be expected over the northern ASEAN region from December 2020, as this is the period when the region enters its traditional dry season with the onset of Northeast Monsoon.

Data Sources: ASEAN Disaster Information Network, ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre

Written by : Keith Paolo Landicho, Lawrence Anthony Dimailig

GENERAL REVIEW OF SEPTEMBER 2020

A total of 45 disaster events were recorded for the month of September 2020, which 1 1/2 times higher than August 2020, and is almost four times the five-year average for September. Despite this increase, there were a range of lower numbers compared to five-year averages, including significantly less people affected, internally displaced, casualties and injuries. There were more houses damaged, however, than the average. These significant differences can be attributed to severe disaster events taking place in September 2018, including the earthquake and tsunami in Central Sulawesi, an earthquake in the Philippines, and Typhoon Mangkhut which affected the northern part of the Philippines, Malaysia, and Viet Nam. In total, said events affected about 10 million people in 2018. Additionally, 2017 saw massive droughts in Indonesia, which affected around 4 million people, and also contributes to the high five-year average figures for the month of September.

A total of 27 significant earthquakes (M≥5.0) were reported in the region for September 2020, and also ongoing volcanic activity reported for the Indonesian mountains of Anak Krakatau, Ibu, Semeru, and Dukono. While the events did not result in significant damage, they do serve as a timely reminder of the importance of geophysical hazard preparedness, particularly in tectonically active countries like Indonesia and the Philippines.

SEASONAL OUTLOOK

Southwest monsoon conditions are expected to persist throughout October 2020, before gradually transitioning into the inter-monsoon period in the latter part of the month. Inter-monsoon conditions are characterised by light and variable winds, with rainy conditions expected over most of the ASEAN region. The inter-monsoon period typically lasts for about a month before the onset of Northeast Monsoon conditions, when the northern ASEAN region enters its traditional dry season, while the southern ASEAN region experiences increased rainfall.

For the October to December period, models predict above-normal rainfall over much of the Maritime Continent (south of the equator and the Philippines) and coastal regions of Viet Nam. La Niña conditions have developed over the tropical Pacific Ocean, and most climate models predict La Niña will bring wetter-than-normal conditions over the Southeast Asia region. These are expected to persist for October through to December 2020, which may cause more torrential rains and resulting flooding across many areas.

While warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected to continue over much of the Maritime Continent for the next three months, parts of Viet Nam, Laos, Cambodia and Thailand may experience below to near-normal temperatures.

For October and November, hotspot activities in the ASEAN region are expected to remain generally subdued due to rainy weather, although isolated hotspots may be detected in some areas during brief periods of drier weather. In December 2020, a gradual increase in hotspot activities may be expected in the northern ASEAN region as it enters its traditional dry season with the onset of Northeast Monsoon.

Data Sources: ASEAN Disaster Information Network, ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre

Written by : Keith Paolo Landicho, Lawrence Anthony Dimailig, Aril Aditian

GENERAL REVIEW OF AUGUST 2020

A total of 36 disaster events were recorded for the month of August 2020, which is the same number recorded for the previous month, and similar to the amount recorded for August of 2019. This number was more than twice as high as the August five-year average, however, the figures of affected people, internally displaced, casualties, injuries, and missing persons for August 2020 were all significantly lower than their respective five-year averages. In contrast, the number of damaged houses for August 2020 was 10 times higher than the five-year average. A little over half of the total recorded disasters for the month were flooding events, which struck regions throughout Lao PDR, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam, as well as significant numbers from Indonesia. This may be attributed to a 200mm increase in precipitation amounts for August 2020 compared to the five-year average, with especially large amounts of rainfall in Indonesia’s Sulawesi, Maluku, and Western Kalimantan, according to the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS). CHIRPS assimilates satellite imagery with in-situ data to create better approximations and more reliable precipitation distribution datasets. This data also showed precipitation deficits of at most -200 mm from the five-year average over Cambodia, Lao PDR, the coasts of Myanmar, northern Philippines and northern and central Viet Nam.

Notably, the effect of Tropical Storm (TS) SINLAKU was largely felt in the Northern and Northeastern regions of Thailand. TS SINLAKU’s impact on Thailand (during week 32) affected 111,190 persons, which was almost 50% of the total number of people affected for the region throughout the whole of August.

There were a total of 32 significant earthquakes (M≥5.0) reported in the region for August 2020, and there was heightened volcanic activity reported for Mt. Sinabung in Indonesia that exposed approximately 15,000 people to adverse impacts. Volcanic activity was also reported for Kerinci, Semeru, Ibu, and Dukono mountains in Indonesia, however the activity caused minimal damage for the surrounding areas. Meanwhile, a magnitude 6.6 earthquake in Masbate, Philippines resulted in some casualties on August 19.

SEASONAL OUTLOOK

The Southwest Monsoon conditions that have been in effect since late May are expected to continue into September 2020. However, there will be a gradual transition to inter-monsoon conditions (between monsoon seasons) during the latter part of October. This inter-monsoon period is characterised by increased shower activities, so a heightened frequency of hydrological and meteorological disasters can be expected.

The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) predicts above-average rainfall over most parts of the southern ASEAN region, as well as the coastal regions of Cambodia, Myanmar, Thailand, and Viet Nam, serving as an early warning for those Member States. ASMC’s climate models predict La Niña conditions from September 2020, which is typically associated with wetter-than-normal conditions over the Southeast Asia region.

While above-normal rainfall is predicted in the southern ASEAN region, occasional periods of dry weather could lead to escalated hotspot activities especially in vulnerable areas in Sumatra and Kalimantan in Indonesia. This could lead to increased risk of land and forest fires and transboundary haze in the southern ASEAN region. In the northern ASEAN region, however, it is expected to be largely subdued due to the prevalence of rainy conditions.

Data Sources: ASEAN Disaster Information Network, ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre

Written by : Keith Paolo Landicho, Lawrence Anthony Dimailig, Aril Aditian

GENERAL REVIEW OF JULY 2020

There were 36 recorded disaster events during the month of July 2020, representing almost double the amount averaged across the previous five years. However, the number of affected people was 353,144 persons, significantly lower than the five-year average. The monthly disaster statistics also indicated lower figures in terms of internally displaced people, casualties, and injuries, which could be attributed to increased capacity in disaster management within the ASEAN Member States.

The month of July was characterised by multiple flooding events happening in Viet Nam, Myanmar, and Indonesia. The recorded flooding events were almost triple the amount of the last five years for July. Viet Nam’s Disaster Management Authority (VNDMA) reported flooding and landslides in Ha Giang and Cao Bang Provinces. On 21 July, Ha Giang City recorded 378mm of rain in 24 hours, while Dao Duc recorded 395mm and Cao Bo (both in Ha Giang Province) 401mm – while usually 180mm or more of rainfall per day is considered heavy. Meanwhile, Myanmar experienced widespread seasonal flooding due to increased rainfall in the upstream region of the Ayeyarwady river during the latter parts of the month. In Indonesia, South Sulawesi experienced multiple flooding events, with the highest impact felt in the region of North Luwu, where flash flooding took place due to heavy rainfall on 12 July. The North Luwu flooding was triggered by high-intensity rain that occurred across the two previous days, causing Masamba River, Rongkang River and Rada River to burst their banks. The North Luwu floods resulted in 38 fatalities and 14,483 displaced people, that contributed to 79% of the all ASEAN disaster casualties for the month of July.

23 significant earthquakes (M≥5.0) were recorded in the region by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) and the Philippine Institute for Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Two volcanoes in Indonesia (Karangetang and Sinabung) are registered at Alert Level III according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG), and are under close monitoring. Lastly, Ibu, Semeru and Dukono mountains in Indonesia remain on Alert Level II, despite recent volcanic activity registered by the PVMBG.

SEASONAL OUTLOOK

According to seasonal outlooks from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), during July 2020 most of the equatorial region experienced above-average rainfall. The largest positive anomalies (wetter conditions) were recorded in the coastal equatorial regions based on satellite-derived rainfall estimates datasets. For the mainland Southeast Asia, below-average rainfall was observed over northern Viet Nam and coastal Myanmar. The prevailing Southwest Monsoon conditions are expected to continue into August and September 2020, and gradually weaken in October 2020 as the inter-monsoon period sets in. Climatologically, the Southwest Monsoon season is characterised by rainy conditions in the northern ASEAN region, and dry weather in southern ASEAN. During the August-October 2020 period, the prevailing winds in the ASEAN region are forecast to blow from the southeast or southwest.

For the August-October 2020 period there is an increased chance of above-average rainfall over much of the maritime continent and southern coastal regions of the Mekong sub-region. The equatorial Pacific Ocean are currently at neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña) conditions, and observed indicators and models predict La Niña-like conditions to develop within the next three months. La Niña conditions are typically associated with wetter-than-normal conditions across the Southeast Asia region.

The warmer-than-average temperature is expected to continue over the ASEAN region for the next three months. However, near-normal temperatures can be expected over some parts of Borneo, northern parts of Lao PDR, and Viet Nam.

In the southern ASEAN region, while wetter-than-normal conditions are forecast over the equatorial region for the August-October period, dry conditions can still be expected over some parts of Sumatra and Kalimantan in Indonesia. This could increase the risk of land and forest fires in the region, and the occurrence of transboundary haze from such fires in the region cannot be ruled out. In the northern ASEAN region, hotspot activities are expected to remain generally subdued due to rainy weather.

Data Sources: ASEAN Disaster Information Network, ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre

Written by : Keith Paolo Landicho, Lawrence Anthony Dimailig, Aril Aditian

GENERAL REVIEW OF JUNE 2020

A total of 41 disaster events were recorded for the month of June 2020, which was a little lower when compared to May 2020, however, more than double the June average for the previous five years. Despite this increase, there was a significant overall decrease in the number of affected people (around 9 times less), internally displaced, injuries and missing persons recorded. However, increases to the number of damaged houses and casualties (more than threefold) were also reported. A majority of disasters recorded were flooding events (28, or almost 70%); with 20 out of those 28 occurring in Indonesia. This could be attributed to the prevalence of southwest monsoon conditions in the ASEAN region since late May, as noted by the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC). Other disasters for June 2020 included an earthquake, three landslides, four storms, and five other wind-related hazards. The recorded casualties were mainly attributed to a landslide event in the Hpakant Township of Myanmar. This landslide was reportedly triggered by heavy rain that caused the bank of the Laku creek to collapse, setting off a fatal wave of mud and torrents of water into the area used by locals to mine for jade.

From a Geophysical perspective, there was a total of 25 significant earthquakes (≥ M5.0) reported for June 2020 across the region. Volcanic activity was observed for Dukono and Semeru Volcanoes in Indonesia throughout June, however the Alert Level remained at 2. Volcanic activity was also reported for Indonesia’s Sangeang Api and Bulusan and Taal in the Philippines. The 21st of June also saw an eruption of Indonesia’s Mount Merapi, located on the border of Central Java and Yogyakarta. The eruption recorded an amplitude of 75mm and a duration of 100 seconds, and saw ash clouds reaching 8,968m above sea level, exposing 184,273 people within a 10km radius to the ash. However, no casualties were reported as a result of this eruption.

SEASONAL OUTLOOK

During July 2020, wetter conditions (above-average rainfall) for most of the equatorial region are forecast. The largest positive anomalies (wetter conditions) are expected over the coastal equatorial regions. For Mainland Southeast Asia, below-average rainfall is forecast over northern Viet Nam, northern Philippines, and coastal Myanmar. This pattern of below-average rainfall broadly follows the coastal regions between 15°N to 20°N latitudes.

The prevailing Southwest Monsoon conditions (rainy conditions in the northern ASEAN region and dry in the southern region) that have been in effect since late May are expected to continue until September 2020. These conditions are likely to bring more rains to the northern ASEAN region that could result in flooding and rain-induced landslides. However, it is expected to gradually weaken by October 2020 signalling the onset of the inter-monsoon period, that is characterised by warm weather and increased rain shower activities. By August 2020, the prevailing winds in the ASEAN region are forecast to blow from southeast to southwest. There is also an increased chance of above-average rainfall over much of the maritime continent and southern coastal regions of the Mekong sub-region.

Data Sources : ASEAN Disaster Information Network, ASEAN Specialised Meteorogical Centre

Written by : Keith Paolo Landicho, Lawrence Anthony Dimailig, Aril Aditian

GENERAL REVIEW OF MAY 2020

A total of 51 disaster events were recorded for the month of May 2020, which was an increase of 82.14% from April 2020. This also formed a three-fold increase in disaster occurrences compared to the previous five-year average, with the highest amount of recorded events for May 2020 being flooding events (56.86%). This significant increase in the number of disaster occurrences in the region was also reflected by an increase in the number of persons affected and displaced persons (both almost 2 times higher), as well as damaged houses (over 90,000 more reports). The observed increase in the impact of disaster events is largely attributed to Tropical Cyclone (TC) VONGFONG that affected the Philippines, causing a majority of the significant increase to damaged houses. According to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), TC VONGFONG brought more than 300 millimeters of cumulative rainfall to areas in its track, with an overall strength equivalent to Category 3 in the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Notably, casualties and number of missing people were low – with six deaths and one missing person. The number of injuries, however, significantly increased compared to the average, with a majority of such injuries due to TC VONGFONG.

Geophysically, a total of 13 significant earthquakes (M≥5.0) were reported in the region for May 2020. Volcanic activity was observed for Ibu and Sangeang Api Volcanoes in Indonesia during Week 19, as well as Dukono and Semeru Volcanoes during the last two weeks of the month. Despite increased volcanic activity, these volcanoes remained on Alert Level II, while three volcanoes (Agung, Karangetang, and Sinabung) remain on Alert Level III.

The figures are an indication of the improvement in the capacities of ASEAN Member States to monitor and report disaster events, with such improvements potentially influencing the increase in reported occurrences. There is also an indication of the effect of climate change in the region, which according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) is linked to more frequent and severe extreme weather events – floods and tropical cyclones. The outcomes also highlight the importance of early warning information and systems, as disaster impacts may have been significantly greater if not for the pre-emptive evacuation, information dissemination, and advisory issuance undertaken during TC VONGFONG in the Philippines.

SEASONAL OUTLOOK

According to the seasonal forecast of the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) for June-July-August 2020, Southwest Monsoon conditions prevailed over the ASEAN region since the latter part of May. This is characterised by increased rain shower activities in the northern ASEAN region due to the Southwest monsoon rain band (elongated cloud patterns that bring rain). Typically drier conditions (compared to the rest of the year) can also be expected for the southern ASEAN region during the Southwest Monsoon season.

For June 2020, increased shower activities over the Mekong sub-region and subdued hotspot activities are expected. For the southern ASEAN region however, in contrast with drier Southwest Monsoon conditions, the equatorial regions should expect above-normal precipitation with isolated and generally subdued hotspot activities.

For June to August 2020, the ASMC forecasts an increased chance of above-average rainfall for most parts of the region near or on the equator. On average, above-average temperatures are also expected to persist over the ASEAN region during the next three months. In this particular season, the southern ASEAN region traditionally expects a dry season, and with it a gradual increase in hotspot activities, particularly in fire-prone areas such as Sumatra and Kalimantan, Indonesia. Extended periods of this dry weather may lead to escalation of hotspot activities, and lead to transboundary haze pollution in the region.

Data Sources: ASEAN Disaster Information Network, ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre

Written by : Keith Landicho and Lawrence Anthony Dimailig