Vol 52-MONTHLY DISASTER REVIEW AND OUTLOOK

GENERAL OVERVIEW OF JUNE 2019

Disaster occurrences in June 2019 amounted to only half of the average for June across the previous five years. Interestingly, while the impact of Southwest Monsoon in the region brings traditionally wet conditions in most ASEAN Member States, during this month the numbers of flooding, storms, and wind-related disturbances recorded were significantly less than those of the previous five years. Meanwhile, reported drought incidents rose significantly when compared with the last five years. These conditions may have been influenced by the borderline El Niño currently being experienced in the region, which resulted to lower-than-normal rainfall and higher-than-normal temperature. On the other hand, it is also important not to discount the possibility that the increase in drought reports may be due to developments in drought monitoring and reporting processes and technology across the region.

While the number of disaster occurrences are significantly lower than the previous five-year average, the number of reported affected people remained similar at 86%. This suggests that disaster occurrences in June 2019 had a higher impact than many incidents across the past five years. In addition, the reported number of internally displaced people (IDP) is 2.5 times higher than the previous five-year average. The high number of IDPs was driven by the reported sudden change of atmospheric conditions in the southern Philippines, which experienced continuous heavy rains after being devastated by drought for weeks. On the other hand, damaged houses and casualties recorded significantly lower numbers than the previous five-year average, which may be attributable to decreased flooding and rain-induced landslides – key drivers of high numbers of damaged houses and casualties, in addition to earthquakes. June 2019 recorded 32 earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 and above, and while there was one earthquake in Indonesia that affected people and damaged houses, the impact was still considered minor.

SEASONAL OUTLOOK

The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) predicts the prevailing Southwest Monsoon to continue until October 2019. As a result, general continuity of rainy conditions in the northern ASEAN region and dry conditions in the southern ASEAN region can be expected. In addition, above-normal rainfall is forecast in several parts of Cambodia, Myanmar, Thailand and Viet Nam, while above-normal temperatures are likely in most parts of the region except for southern parts of ASEAN. The El Niño Southern Oscillation monitoring system remains in the “Watch” status for the region, which suggests borderline El Niño conditions. Looking forward, overall signs of future El Niño development have weakened, however, model outlooks of international centres still show a wide spread of outcomes ranging from neutral conditions to moderate El Niño.

Data Sources: ASEAN Disaster Information Network, ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre

Written by : Lawrence Anthony Dimailig & Shahasrakiranna