Vol 42-Monthly Disaster Review and Outlook
MONTHLY DISASTER REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
JULY & AUGUST | DISASTER MONITORING & ANALYSIS
(DMA) UNIT, AHA CENTRE
GENERAL OVERVIEW OF JULY AND AUGUST 2018
A two-week period in July saw the development of 5 tropical storms, one of which had a severe affect on the northern ASEAN region. The Southwest monsoon (refer to figure 1.) brought with it heavy torrential rains, resulting in flooding through the Mekong River region. Hydro-meteorological disasters formed the main hazards during this period, and are expected to persist with continued rain over the northern ASEAN region, coupled with drier conditions in southern part of ASEAN.
In contrast to the situation in the northern ASEAN region, droughts in 16 municipalities have been reported across seven consecutive weeks thus far, with one reported wildfire occurrence in the past month. The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre detected hotspots in Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra during July. General conditions for August remained similar to July, with high rainfall experienced over the northern region, impacting countries in the Mekong region and northern parts of the Philippines.
Throughout the last 2 months, large numbers of earthquakes were recorded and experienced by ASEAN communities. The increased seismic activity is not only restricted to the region,with the phenomenon also seen globally. A total of 232 earthquakes were recorded internationally between the 20th and 26th of August along the Pacific “Ring of Fire” and its adjacent tectonic plates. Of these recorded earthquakes, 37 (15.9%) were recorded at a scale of M 5.0 or above, with 25 (67.6%) of these major earthquakes (≥M 5.0) occurring within a span of 48 hours between August 20th to 22nd. Of these 232 earthquakes, 32 (13.8%) were reported within the ASEAN region. Of the 32 recorded in the region, 11 (34.4%) were reported to be M 5.0 and above. The increasing seismic activity is currently being observed by seismological agencies in anticipation of increased volcanic activity, earthquakes, tsunamis and other related hazards. Nevertheless, in July and August 2018, activity of volcanoes in Philippines and Indonesia stayed within their normal threshold, with no changes in any of their alert levels
The prevailing Southwest Monsoon season is expected to persist until October 2018, with prevailing winds in the region blowing from the southeast or southwest. Climatologically, the Southwest Monsoon season is characterised by rainy conditions in the northern ASEAN region, and dry conditions in the southern ASEAN region.
OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST-OCTOBER 2018
Warmer than average conditions can be expected over the equatorial ASEAN region, especially in Borneo and south-eastern Sumatra, while near-average or slightly above-average temperatures are forecasted over most other areas during the August-October season.
For the equatorial ASEAN region, below-average rainfall is forecasted between August and October. The drier-than-usual weather could to lead to an escalation in hotspot activities and an increased risk of transboundary smoke haze.
Near-average rainfall is forecasted for the rest of the region, including the northern ASEAN region. Hotspot activities in the northern ASEAN region are likely to remain subdued due to wet weather. The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant National Meteorological and Hydrological Services as well as Geological Services should be consulted.
Written by : Mizan Bisri, Qing Yuan Pang
DISCLAIMER
AHA Centre’s estimation is based on data and information shared by National Disaster Management Organisations (NDMOs) and other relevant agencies from ASEAN Member States, international organisations and news agencies. Further information on each recorded-significant disaster, description and details of data and information are available at: http://adinet.ahacentre.org/reports.
- Published in Monthly Disaster Outlook
Vol 36-Pacific Disaster Centre
PACIFIC DISASTER CENTRE
Strengthening Disaster Preparedness across Asia-Pacific
with the Pacific Disaster Centre
THE PACIFIC DISASTER CENTER (PDC) IS A HAWAIIAN-BASED ORGANISATION WITH A FOCUS TOWARDS DEVELOPING TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATIONS FOR IMPROVING DISASTER MITIGATION, PREPAREDNESS, RESPONSE, AND RECOVERY. FOR ALMOST TWO DECADES, PDC HAS DELIVERED A VARIETY OF TOOLS AND SERVICES TO THE GLOBAL DISASTER MANAGEMENT COMMUNITY – INCLUDING TO THE AHA CENTRE. SUCH TOOLS AND SERVICES INCLUDE GLOBAL MULTI-HAZARD DISASTER MONITORING, EARLY WARNING MECHANISMS AND DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS, RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT TOOLS, MODELING AND VISUALISATION PLATFORMS, SIMULATION EXERCISE SUPPORT, AND A RANGE OF CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITIES.
ASEAN’s collaboration with the PDC began in mid-2004, prior to the Indian Ocean Tsunami, and the PDC has been constantly involved in the implementation of the ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response (AADMER). More recently, the PDC – supported by the United States Government through its US Agency for International Development (USAID) programmes – has worked with ASEAN and the AHA Centre to implement programmes such as the AADMER Work Programme for Risk Assessment, Early Warning, and Monitoring Activity (2010-2015), the AHA Centre Information Communication Technology (ICT) Gap Analysis, and the development of a Disaster Monitoring and Response System (DMRS) powered by PDC’s DisasterAWARE™ platform.
The most notable recent collaboration between the two Centres has been the development of the DMRS. The system was initiated following an offer made by the United States’ President Barack Obama at the First ASEAN-US Leaders’ Meeting in November, 2009, in Singapore. The DRMS is supported by the United States Government through the USAID and US Department of State-funded ASEAN-US Technical Assistance and Training Facility. The United States has been an ASEAN Dialogue Partner since 1977.
The DMRS enables the AHA Centre to integrate all monitoring of hazard data within one system. The system compiles and transforms various hazard and other natural disaster information from national and international disaster monitoring agencies into a regional, event-tracking and decision-support tool, further enhanced by its utilisation of maps and modelling applications. Through this integration, the AHA Centre operations team can immediately obtain a global overview of any situation, which improves response times and leads to more efficient use of relief resources.
“I would characterise PDC as a very committed and sustainable partner of the AHA Centre. Through their support, we now have comprehensive disaster monitoring tools that allow us to monitor hazards in an almost real-time manner. The early warning alerts allow us to plan ahead of time,” explains Arnel Capili, the Operations Director of the AHA Centre.
Following more than a decade of collaboration, The PDC and the AHA Centre signed a new Memorandum of Intent (MOI) on the 5th of June, 2017, at the AHA Centre’s headquarters in Jakarta.
The MOI aims to strengthen the two Centres’ ongoing partnership in advancing disaster risk reduction and regional cooperation, including steps to progress the vision of One ASEAN One Response. The PDC and AHA Centre will continue working together to pursue new endeavours to support the vision, including a project to conduct a regional risk assessment for the ASEAN Member States that will support the development of sound policies for risk reduction across the region.
Written by : Carla Budiarto | Photo : AHA Centre
- Published in Partnership
Vol 36-Monthly Disaster Outlook
MONTHLY DISASTER REVIEW OUTLOOK
JANUARY AND FEBRUARY 2018 | DISASTER MONITORING & ANALYSIS
(DMA) UNIT, AHA CENTRE
GENERAL OVERVIEW OF JAN AND FEB 2018
Between January and February 2018, a total of 57 disasters were reported from within ASEAN Member States. Due to the higher-than-average rainfall; 57.8% of all disasters reported in this period are attributed to floods. In addition, landslides are of major concern in areas prone to slope failure which potentially cause disruptions and significant damage to major circulatory transport systems, as well as impacting communities and trade. In the northern ASEAN region, record-low temperatures have been reported during this winter season, with storms recorded in Viet Nam, Thailand and Cambodia. Whereas the emergency response operation for Typhoon Tembin was extended until the third week of January, additional impact of Tropical Storm Sanba (Basyang) affected more than two hundred-thousand people in the Philippines.
Earthquakes and volcanic activity remain high on the agenda, with two significant earthquakes observed in the region. A magnitude 6.1 earthquake occurred on the 23rd of January 2018, affecting provinces of Banten, West Java and Jakarta in Indonesia. Although there were over seven thousand homes damaged, the emergency response was managed well by the Indonesian authorities. More recently, a magnitude 7.6 earthquake was recorded in Papua New Guinea on February 26th, with tremors felt and light damage caused in several regencies of the Papua Province (Indonesia). The earthquake was followed by 53 strong aftershocks (M 5.0 and above) within the following week, without additional damage experienced in any parts of Indonesia. Also in Indonesia, the situation on Mount Agung, Bali, has greatly improved, with its alert level being lowered, and its mandatory exclusion zone relaxed. In the Philippines, Mount Mayon’s Phreatomagmatic Eruption, has been ongoing throughout January & February. This activity has affected the daily lives of more than 90,000 people in the Albay Province, yet there have been no human casualties reported, showcasing the result of effective preparedness and response.
OUTLOOK FOR MARCH AND APRIL 2018
ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) has forecasted that during the coming months, the region will begin a gradual transition from the current Northeast Monsoon season to the inter-monsoon period. The inter-monsoon period (April and May) is a transition period that sees low-level winds in the region being generally light and variable in direction, with an increase in light rain activity expected across ASEAN during this time.
For the March-April-May 2018 season, slightly below-average to near-average rainfall is forecasted for most parts of Southeast Asia, except for the Philippines, who can expect slightly above-average rainfall during these months. During March and April, slightly above-normal rainfall is forecasted over the northern parts of Kalimantan and Sulawesi, as well as the western districts of Papua.
Written by : Mizan Bisri, Qing Yuan Pang
DISCLAIMER
AHA Centre’s estimation is based on data and information shared by National Disaster Management Organisations (NDMOs) and other relevant agencies from ASEAN Member States, international organisations and news agencies. Further information on each recorded-significant disaster, description and details of data and information are available at: http://adinet.ahacentre.org/reports.
- Published in Monthly Disaster Outlook
Vol 39-Strengthening The Interoperability of ASEAN-ERAT and UNDAC
STRENGTHENING THE INTEROPERABILITY OF
ASEAN-ERAT AND UNDAC
SWITZERLAND, 29 APRIL – 11 MAY 2018
THE ASEAN REGION WAS REPRESENTED BY THREE MEMBERS OF THE REGION DURING THE UNITED NATIONS DISASTER ASSESSMENT AND COORDINATION (UNDAC) GLOBAL INDUCTION COURSE, HELD IN SWITZERLAND FROM THE 29TH OF APRIL TO THE 11TH OF MAY, 2018. THEIR INVOLVEMENT IN THE UNDAC TRAINING SERVES TO DEMONSTRATE THE STRENGTHENED PARTNERSHIP BETWEEN THE UNITED NATIONS AND ASEAN FOR INCREASING COLLECTIVE DISASTER PREPAREDNESS IN THE SOUTHEAST ASIAN REGION.
The participants, from Indonesia, Malaysia and Lao PDR, included two members of the ASEAN Emergency Response and Assessment Team (ASEAN-ERAT), thus their engagement in the UNDAC course formed another opportunity to test the interoperability between international and regional humanitarian mechanisms.
“The purpose of our involvement in the UNDAC course is to ensure quality learning process of UNDAC methodology and approach, increase the number of ASEAN-ERAT members who are also UNDAC-certified, as well as showcasing the quality of ASEAN-ERAT in collaborating together with other humanitarian actors within the UNDAC system,” said Dr. Mizan Bisri, the Disaster Monitoring and Analysis Officer of the AHA Centre, and one of the participants in the 2-week course.
At the completion of the course, numerous key-learnings could be identified, especially regarding points of improvement for adoption from UNDAC within ASEAN-ERAT processes. These included, amongst others, the strategic elements of coordination, access to assessment results, and back-end support mechanisms of UNDAC missions. A particular highlight is the strategic element of UNDAC system that forms a link between their assessment results and greater resource mobilisation, as well as public disclosure of such assessment results to increase the transparency of UNDAC and its standing in the wider humanitarian community. Therefore, dissemination of the assessment report produced by ASEAN-ERAT at the completion of each deployment/disaster response is increasingly important. While a response might not necessarily lead to greater resource mobilisation, having a public report will increase the visibility of ASEAN-ERAT, promote the values of ASEAN-ERAT, and potentially fortify the partnerships with global humanitarian partners.
The training also provided in-depth insights that may be integrated into the development of ASEAN-ERAT Level-2 curriculum, particularly related to rapid assessment, information management, logistics, humanitarian civil-military coordination and early recovery. The UNDAC holds a wide array of experiences designing back-end support with partner organisations, both within and outside of the UN system, particularly focused towards assessment and analysis, and information management aspects. Based on these experiences, within the Southeast Asian context, there are opportunities to enable ASEAN-ERAT members to provide remote support for ongoing missions on the ground.
During the UNDAC global induction course, ASEAN-ERAT was highlighted as a key regional partner for responding on the ground, capacity building and inter-operability preparedness. The ongoing participation between both ASEAN-ERAT and UNDAC within each other’s respective induction courses and exercises was highlighted and praised. UNDAC members also evidenced awareness that, in the case of disasters in ASEAN region, there is a great likelihood that a Joint Operations and Coordination Centre of ASEAN (JOCCA) would run in parallel to the Onsite Operations and Coordination Centre (OSOCC). Both centres would serve as coordinating platforms and provide support to the affected countries to manage incoming assistance. The existence of a Standard Operating Procedure between the OCHA/UNDAC and AHA Centre/ASEAN-ERAT, tailored to the respective UNDAC and ASEAN-ERAT mission cycles, was highlighted as a good institutional approach to ensure quality response for supporting the needs of the affected population. Overall, better strategic, tactical and operational linkages between ASEAN and UN agencies are fundamental to the holistic implementation of One ASEAN One Response, both for responding inside and outside the region. As of May 2018, there are 18 out of 252 ASEAN-ERAT members who had been trained and qualified as UNDAC personnel, with plans to continuously increase these numbers, in line with the ASEAN-ERAT Transformation Plan as part of the AHA Centre Work Plan 2020.
Written by : Mizan Bisri | Photo : AHA Centre, United Nations
- Published in AHA Centre Diary 1
Vol 39-Monthly Disaster Review and Outlook
MONTHLY DISASTER REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
MAY 2018 | DISASTER MONITORING & ANALYSIS
(DMA) UNIT, AHA CENTRE
GENERAL OVERVIEW OF MAY 2018
Hydro-meteorological hazards continued to form a majority of disasters within the ASEAN region during May 2018. Using yearly data comparisons, it is evidenced that the ASEAN region experienced twice as many disasters when compared to the same time period last year. Data for the initial three weeks of the period showed low numbers of recorded disasters. However, numbers increased significantly as Tropical Depression 5 developed and moved across Sulu Sea and into the South China Sea. This situation resulted in flooding, storm surges and strong wind events across Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei Darussalam and Viet Nam. Monsoon season has begun in areas within proximity of the Indian Ocean, which creates increased flood risks for northern Myanmar along the Irrawaddy basin. This is consistent with ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre’s (ASMC) observation of the end of the dry season on the 16th of May, marked by an increase in shower activities across the northern part of the ASEAN region.
There were 37 moderate earthquakes with magnitudes of > M .4.0 felt in Indonesia and the Philippines, which were observed at around II to IV MMI. Despite the magnitude of such events, no casualties or damage was reported as a result of earthquakes in both countries. As of the end of May, the alert status for volcanoes in Indonesia are as follows – Warning Alert (Awas, the highest of 4 levels) for Mount Sinabung in North Sumatra; Watch Alert (Siaga, second highest) for Mount Agung in Bali; and Cautionary Alert (Waspada, a level 3 alert) for 19 other volcanoes across the nation. Despite its Cautionary alert level, Mount Merapi in Central Java, Indonesia, has experienced significant increased activity recorded on the mountain, with phreatic eruptions and release of volcanic ash columns beginning on the 21st of May. Three eruptions at the end of Week 22 (1st of June 2018) forced two airports in Central Java to temporarily shut down their operations as a result of the ash plume.
OUTLOOK FOR JUNE-JULY 2018
According to the ASMC, wet weather conditions are expected over the northern parts of the ASEAN region for the rest June, with more shower activities forecast as the transition to the Southwest Monsoon is expected to begin during the month. Rainfall can be expected to increase during this time due to the presence of the monsoonal rain band across the north of the ASEAN region. The Southwest Monsoon season typically prevails over the region between June and October, and is associated with the traditional dry season in southern parts of ASEAN contrasting with the wet season in northern parts of the ASEAN region.
In stark contrast to the northern ASEAN region, extended periods of dry weather can be expected during June and July in the southern reaches of ASEAN. This may lead to an escalation of hotspot activities, with smoke plumes should ignition occur, particularly in parts of Sumatra and Kalimantan. Slightly below-normal to near-normal rainfall may still occur over most parts of the region during this period, with below-normal to slightly below-normal rainfall expected for Java, Nusa Tenggara and Timor Leste during the early part of the Southwest Monsoon season.
As always, you should keep posted on weather updates from your respective Meteorological Services and Disaster Management Organisations for evacuation notices (if any). You can refer to our social media for links to the respective national agencies and organisations for further information.
Written by : Mizan Bisri, Qing Yuan Pang
DISCLAIMER
AHA Centre’s estimation is based on data and information shared by National Disaster Management Organisations (NDMOs) and other relevant agencies from ASEAN Member States, international organisations and news agencies. Further information on each recorded-significant disaster, description and details of data and information are available at: http://adinet.ahacentre.org/reports.
- Published in Monthly Disaster Outlook