MONTHLY DISASTER REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
NOVEMBER | DISASTER MONITORING & ANALYSIS
(DMA) UNIT, AHA CENTRE
GENERAL OVERVIEW OF
Compared to 2017, the number of disasters reported for the same period is almost the same for the inter-monsoon season. Hydro-meteorological disasters are still the highest in number, but mostly within the central region of ASEAN. Heavier rain was experienced around the Malaysian Peninsula and Northern Sumatra, which caused floods and resultant landslides. Despite being localised, the amount of damage sustained was significant, but less if compared to the same period last year. On the other hand, the seismic activity remains of significant concern, with a total of 28 earthquakes of magnitude 5 and above reported in ASEAN during October 2018 (compared to 12 in 2017). Most of the recorded earthquakes occurred around Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, which is located along a large fault line. Public and relevant authorities may wish to exercise more caution, and increase mitigation and reduction risk activities related to geophysical disasters
OUTLOOK FOR THE OCTOBER TO DECEMBER 2018 PERIOD
(SEASONAL FORECAST FROM ASEAN SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE)
The Southwest Monsoon season is expected to transition into the inter-monsoon period around mid-October, and persist for some weeks before giving way to the Northeast Monsoon season in late-November/December.
During the changeover, the prevailing south-easterly or south-westerly winds are expected to gradually weaken to become light and variable in direction, with a gradual strengthening of north-easterly winds to be expected. Characteristically, this is accompanied by a southward shift of the monsoon rain-band, which will bring more rainfall over the southern ASEAN region. The northern ASEAN region will experience decreased rainfall as the season progresses.
Above-normal temperature conditions are expected over many parts of the ASEAN region, especially in the equatorial regions during the coming months. In the northern ASEAN region, occasional hotspots may emerge as drier conditions set-in toward the later part of the season.
In the southern ASEAN region, brief periods of dry weather may contribute to increased hotspot activities in October, which may lead to an occurrence of transboundary haze affecting some parts of the region. However, an increase in shower activities with the onset of the inter-monsoon period will help subdue hotspot activities.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of ASEAN Member States should be consulted.
Written by : Mizan Bisri, Qing Yuan Pang
Disclaimer: AHA Centre’s estimation is based on data and information provided by National Disaster Management Organisations (NDMOs) and other relevant agencies from ASEAN Member States, international organisations and news agencies. Further information on each recorded-significant disaster, description and detail of data and information are available at: http://adinet.ahacentre.org/reports.