Vol 83 – MONTHLY DISASTER REVIEW AND OUTLOOK

MONTHLY DISASTER REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
JUNE & JULY 2023 | DISASTER MONITORING & ANALYSIS
(DMA) UNIT, AHA CENTRE
GENERAL REVIEW OF JUNE 2023
For the month of June 2023, a total of 65 disasters were reported. The ASEAN Member States that were affected are Indonesia, the Philippines, and Viet Nam. Most of the disasters (66%) occurred in Indonesia but only accounted for 15% of the affected persons (around 78K persons). Notably, Philippines accounted for most of the affected persons despite reporting only 19 disasters events—Flooding in BARMM with 46.25% of the total reported affected persons for the month of June. The share of the disaster-affected people for the other ASEAN Member States are as follows: (1) Philippines-85.12%, (2) Indonesia-14.85%, and (3) Viet Nam-0.03%. June 2023 saw disasters affecting 77 per 100,000 people* and displacing 6 per 100,000 people* in the region, which were 4 times and 23 times lower respectively compared to the previous month.
Most of the disasters that have occurred in June 2023 are floods (45%) and is consistently the most recorded type of disaster for June of the previous year and June on a five-year average (2018-2022). The reported disasters in the region for June 2023 in comparison to the historical data (average for June 2018-2022) indicates that there were about 1.1x more reported disasters; 1.6x less people affected; 1.6x more people internally displaced; 2.3x less houses affected to some extent; 2.2x less lives lost; and 4.9x more people suffering injuries.
GENERAL REVIEW OF JULY 2023
For the month of July 2023, a total of 93 disasters were reported. The ASEAN Member States that were affected are Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. Most of the disasters (72%) occurred in Indonesia but only accounted for 1.72% of the affected persons (around 101K persons). Notably, Philippines accounted for most of the affected persons despite reporting only 13 disasters event—Combined Effects of the Southwest Monsoon, TC DOKSURI, TC KHANUN, and TC TALIM with 94.29% of the total reported affected persons for the month of July. The share of the disaster-affected people for the other ASEAN Member States are as follows: (1) Philippines-98.016%, (2) Indonesia-1.723%, Thailand-0.238%, Viet Nam 0.022%, and Malaysia 0.001%. July 2023 saw disasters affecting 774 per 100,000 people* and displacing 76 per 100,000 people* in the region, which were 10 times and 4 times higher respectively compared to the previous month.
Most of the disasters that have occurred in July 2023 are floods (60%) and is consistently the most recorded type of disaster for July of the previous year and July on a five-year average (2018-2022). The reported disasters in the region for July 2023 in comparison to the historical data (average for July 2018-2022) indicates that there were about 1.5x more reported disasters; 3.2x more people affected; 1.5x less people internally displaced; 3.3x more houses affected to some extent; 1.2x more lives lost; and 1.5x more people suffering injuries.
GEOPHYSICAL CONDITION FOR JUNE AND JULY 2023
Geophysically, 48 significant earthquakes (Magnitude ≥ 5.0) were reported by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG), Myanmar’s Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH), and the Philippine Institute for Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS), and the Thai Meteorological Department (TMD) for the period of June to July 2023 (the period of Weeks 22-30).
Mount Semeru (Alert Level III), Anak Krakatau (Alert Level III), Dukono (Alert Level II), Ibu (Alert Level II), Ili Lewotolok (Alert Level II), and Karangetang (Alert Level III) in Indonesia and Mayon (Alert Level 3), Taal (Alert Level 1), and Kanlaon Volcanoes (Alert Level 1) were reportedly tectonically active (erupting lava or releasing gas or generating seismic activity) throughout the month of June to July 2023 (the period of Weeks 22-30).
PHIVOLCS raised the Mayon Volcano Alert Level to 3 (Increased Tendency Towards Hazardous Eruption) since 8 June. As of 14 August, Mayon Volcano remains in a relatively high level of unrest as magma is at the crater and hazardous eruptions are possible within weeks or days. According to NDRRMC, as of 13 August 2023, 9.9K families (38.4K persons) have been affected and 20.3K persons internally displaced in 27 evacuation centres. The NDRRMC with other relevant-agencies/stakeholders have provided 5.7M USD worth of assistance to those affected.
*computed based on 2023 population data from worldometers.com
ANALYSIS
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), compared to the average value from 2001-2022, during June 2023, above-average rainfall was experienced in the eastern parts of the Mainland Southeast Asia and western Maritime Continent but less to above-average for the rest of the ASEAN Region. The largest difference (driest condition) from the average rainfall was observed over western coast to northern parts and southern Myanmar, western Thailand (bordering with southern parts of Myanmar), and the Visayas of the Philippines. Wetter conditions which is detected over Mindanao of the Philippines, have also resulted a MODERATE disaster in the area of BARMM Region. As shown in Figure 1 left wetter than normal conditions are detected over Mindanao, the Philippines.
For the month of July 2023, according to the ASMC, compared to the average value from 2001-2022, above-average rainfall was experienced over much of the western half of the maritime continent; below-average rainfall was experienced over the northeastern parts of the Mainland Southeast Asia and eastern Maritime Continent; and mix of below to above-average rainfall for the rest of the ASEAN Region. The largest positive (wetter) anomalies were recorded over parts of southern Myanmar, southern Viet Nam, and northern Philippines. Particularly for the wetter conditions in the northern parts of the Philippines as shown in Figure 2 left, a CATASTROPHIC disaster was caused by the Combined Effects of the Southwest Monsoon, TC DOKSURI, TC KHANUN, and TC TALIM.
SEASONAL OUTLOOK
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), compared to the average value from 2001-2022, during June 2023, above-average rainfall was experienced in the eastern parts of the Mainland Southeast Asia and western Maritime Continent but less to above-average for the rest of the ASEAN Region. The largest difference (driest condition) from the average rainfall was observed over western coast to northern parts and southern Myanmar, western Thailand (bordering with southern parts of Myanmar), and the Visayas of the Philippines. Wetter conditions which is detected over Mindanao of the Philippines, have also resulted a MODERATE disaster in the area of BARMM Region. As shown in Figure 1 left wetter than normal conditions are detected over Mindanao, the Philippines.
For the month of July 2023, according to the ASMC, compared to the average value from 2001-2022, above-average rainfall was experienced over much of the western half of the maritime continent; below-average rainfall was experienced over the northeastern parts of the Mainland Southeast Asia and eastern Maritime Continent; and mix of below to above-average rainfall for the rest of the ASEAN Region. The largest positive (wetter) anomalies were recorded over parts of southern Myanmar, southern Viet Nam, and northern Philippines. Particularly for the wetter conditions in the northern parts of the Philippines as shown in Figure 2 left, a CATASTROPHIC disaster was caused by the Combined Effects of the Southwest Monsoon, TC DOKSURI, TC KHANUN, and TC TALIM.
Note: The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general and based on the latest runs from models provided by the SEA RCC-Network LRF node. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.
Sources: ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet), ASEAN Disaster Monitoring and Response System (DMRS), ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) – Indonesia, Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) – Malaysia, Department of Disaster Management (DDM) – Myanmar, National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) – Philippines, Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) – Thailand, Thai Meteorological Department (TMD) – TMD, Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG) – Indonesia, Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) – Indonesia, Philippine Institute for Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) – Philippines, Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) – Philippines
Written by : Sadhu Zukhruf Janottama, Lawrence Anthony Dimailig
DISCLAIMER
The AHA Centre’s estimation is based on data and information shared by National Disaster Management Organisations (NDMOs) and other relevant agencies from ASEAN Member States, international organisations, and news agencies. Further information on each recorded significant disaster, description, and detail of data and information are available at: https://adinet.ahacentre.org/report/
- Published in Monthly Disaster Outlook
Vol 83 – INTERNSHIP STORY: MUHAMMMAD FAISAL ANSHORY

INTERNSHIP STORY:
MUHAMMMAD FAISAL ANSHORY
Disaster Monitoring and Analysis Intern
My name is Muhammad Faisal Anshory, and I am a fresh graduate in Geodetic and Geomatics Engineering at the Bandung Institute of Technology. During my studies, I have been passionate about map-making, a.k.a cartography. I also learned about the role of my degree in multiple areas, one of them is the disaster field.
This is why I was intrigued when I learned about HELiX, the Humanitarian and Emergency Logistics Innovation Expo, hosted by the ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on Disaster Management (AHA Centre) and Viet Nam Disaster Management Authority (VNDMA) in 2021.
My curiosity led me to participate in the AHAckathon competition as part of the HELiX event in October 2021, where my team and I had the chance to learn about the efforts of various disaster relief organisations. With the guidance of our mentor, Ms. Smriti, we were trying to come up with a solution to two common problems relief workers face: a lack of centralised real-time information to monitor and coordinate relief efforts and the slow identification processes for needs assessments. Our solution was an application prototype called Holigistics, which targeted actors in the field to quickly assess the supply needed by impacted demographic data and give recommendations for the optimised route service for the supply chain. Our team’s efforts paid off when we were awarded second place among various teams in ASEAN. This experience taught me about the AHA Centre generally and its role in coordinating logistics assistance for natural disasters in ASEAN.
A few months later, I saw a social media post by the AHA Centre announcing an internship opportunity as a Disaster Monitoring and Analysis (DMA) intern. As I had finished my undergraduate thesis, I applied without hesitation and was eventually invited for an online interview. I started my new journey on September 5th, under the guidance of DMA Officers Mr. Keith Paolo and Mr. Sadhu Zukhruf. As a DMA intern, my main responsibilities were assisting in daily DMA activities. The task included monitoring the daily development of natural disasters in ASEAN, data cleansing and analysis of disaster data records, and assisting in developing incidental and routine reports, including maps. Those responsibilities presented unique challenges. The first one is when navigating language barriers when monitoring disaster development in the ASEAN region, where as a multicultural region, each ASEAN country has its own language. The second is that AHA Centre’s products are often reposted by global organisations, meaning the information presented must be accurate, data-oriented, and reliable. Despite these challenges, I am grateful for the opportunity to make a positive impact and they raise my awareness about the relationship between humans and nature.
During my internship journey, I was fortunate to be exposed to various valuable experiences that helped me develop new skills and knowledge. One of the most significant aspects of my internship was gaining exposure to cutting-edge technologies used for disaster monitoring activities. Not only did this expand my technical skill set, but it also provided me with a new perspective on the intersection of technology and disaster management. In addition, I also had the opportunity to participate in important events such as the AHA Centre Information Management Network (AIM-Net) and First Aid and Survival on Disaster Training, which helped me develop a deeper understanding of disaster management from a practical standpoint. The meetings with the Centre partners were also a great learning opportunity, as they allowed me to gain insights into how the AHA Centre collaborates with national disaster management organisations of ASEAN member states and international organisations to develop ASEAN’s resilience towards natural disasters.
All in all, I am grateful to have had the opportunity to participate in the internship program at the AHA Centre. The experiences and knowledge I have gained during this time have truly broadened my perspective on natural disasters and emergency response and working in a multicultural environment. I am especially thankful to my supervisors, Mr. Keith and Mr. Sadhu, for their guidance and unwavering support throughout my internship. They always challenged me and gave constructive feedback that has pushed me to try new things and exceed my expectations. I also appreciate Mr. Lawrence Anthony Dimailig who has been an incredible source of positivity and encouragement during daily activities. This internship has been a valuable learning experience that has equipped me with the knowledge and skills needed to make a positive impact in the future. I look forward to utilising these skills in my future endeavors and continue to grow as an individual.
Written by: Muhammad Faisal Anshory, Disaster Monitoring and Analysis Intern
- Published in The Other Side
Vol 83 – THE 18TH MEETING OF THE AHA CENTRE GOVERNING BOARD

THE 18TH MEETING OF THE AHA CENTRE GOVERNING BOARD
The 18th Meeting of the AHA Centre Governing Board was held on 14 June 2023 in Da Nang, Viet Nam, as part of the 42nd Meeting of the ASEAN Committee on Disaster Management (ACDM). Attended by the ACDM as Governing Board of the AHA Centre, the Meeting discussed the Centre’s progress and achievements in the period of October 2022 to May 2023.
During this period, the AHA Centre carried out emergency responses to Tropical Cyclone Nalgae in the Philippines, supported the Thailand Department of Disaster Prevention & Mitigation (DDPM) in conducting a drought assessment in four provinces in the Northeast Regions of Thailand, and provided humanitarian support to the people affected by Tropical Cyclone Mocha that made landfall in Myanmar.
As of May 2023, the AHA Centre had completed almost 50% of its annual plan for 2023. Key achievements made by the Centre during this period include enhancement of the ASEAN Disaster Information Laboratory (ADILab) and ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet) platforms, the completion of the 14th ASEAN-ERAT Induction Course and ASEAN-ERAT Level 2 Courses on Humanitarian Logistics and Civil Military Coordination, and the release of the ‘At the Crossroads’ Podcast Season 2 in April 2023.
The AHA Centre also presented updates on completed and ongoing projects. The DELSA Phase III Project, which is supported by the Government of Japan through the Japan-ASEAN Integration Fund (JAIF) was completed in March 2023. Meanwhile, the ASEAN Standards and Certification for Experts in Disaster Management (ASCEND) project had successfully conducted the ASCEND Trial Simulation in November 2022 with the support of the Republic of Korea through the ASEAN-Korea Cooperation Fund (AKCF).
The Meeting also included updates on the ongoing activities of the Integrated Programme in Enhancing the Capacity of AHA Centre and ASEAN Emergency Response Mechanisms (EU-SAHA) project, the project ‘Improving ASEAN’s Humanitarian Assistance Capacity in Multi Hazard’ funded by Global Affairs Canada, the Strengthening AHA Centre’s Capability to Respond Effectively to Human-Induced Crises Project (AHA -Australia) project, and the Strengthening the Institutional Capacity of the AHA Centre for ASEAN Disaster Capacity Building Programme (SICAP) project supported by New Zealand.
The Meeting of the Governing Board of the AHA Centre holds great significance as it provides a platform for comprehensive discussions and assessments of the Centre’s progress and accomplishments. The AHA Centre is deeply appreciative of the guidance and support offered by the Governing Board in steering its efforts towards achieving its objectives. The AHA Centre is fully dedicated to furthering its mission and looks forward to continuing its efforts in supporting the ASEAN region’s disaster management efforts.
Written by: Gladys Respati | Photo by: VDDMA
- Published in AHA Centre Diary 1
Vol 83 – STRENGTHENING ASEAN’S DISASTER RESPONSE THROUGH DELSA PHASE IV

STRENGTHENING ASEAN’S DISASTER RESPONSE THROUGH DELSA PHASE IV
Launched in December 2012, the Disaster Emergency Logistics System for ASEAN (DELSA) project facilitates swift provision of relief items to affected ASEAN Member States (AMS). Supported by the Government of Japan through the Japan-ASEAN Integration Fund (JAIF), the project has played a critical role in ASEAN responses over the years as a beacon of ASEAN solidarity, enabling ASEAN to provide needs-based assistance in a timely manner through prepositioned stockpiles located in the DELSA warehouses. The project’s importance was particularly felt during DELSA Phase III, where it supported multiple emergency responses in ASEAN, including Tropical Cyclone NORU in Lao PDR and Thailand, and Tropical Cyclone NALGAE in the Philippines in 2022.
In March 2023, the Phase III the ASEAN Disaster Emergency Logistics System (DELSA) was officially concluded. The project’s focus is now moving toward enhancing the sustainability of the DELSA warehouses in Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand, and further integrating Information and Communication Technology (ICT) to bolster regional emergency supply chain management.
OBJECTIVE:
Further enhance the supply chain management for emergency response of ASEAN to ensure timely response to disasters through:
• Prepositioning of stockpiles in 3 DELSA warehouses
• Innovation
• Utilisation of technology
• Capacity development
INDICATORS:
• The Emergency Telecommunication Network (ETN) is established;
• The ASEAN Logistics Roadmap updated for 2025;
• Procurement of stockpiles for the DELSA warehouses in Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand;
• Capacity development / trainings for the Logistics Officers of the NDMOs of 10 ASEAN Member States
The DELSA Phase IV project is aligned with the ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management (AADMER) Work Programme (AWP) 2021-2025 Priority Programme 3 on Preparedness and Response. More specifically, it aligns with Sub-Priority 3.2., which seeks to strengthen capacity building for effective regional response, contributing to the strengthening of regional humanitarian supply chain management, the development of a reliable Emergency Telecommunication Network to support ASEAN response, and the enhancement of assessment capabilities for a robust information management system and interoperable network of ASEAN Emergency Operations Centres (EOCs).
Furthermore, the project will contribute to the implementation of the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific, particularly in the area of “Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction and Management” under the broad range area of “Economic and Other Possible Areas of Cooperation”, and the principle of “complementarity with existing cooperation frameworks”.
The future of DELSA will continue to blend technology, strategic planning, and continuous capacity building to achieve speed, scae, and solidarity in ASEAN’s collective response to disasters, in line with the spirit of One ASEAN One Response.
Written by: Gladys Respati | Photo by: AHA Centre
- Published in Partnership
Vol 83 – WORLD ENVIRONMENT DAY 2023

WORLD ENVIRONMENT DAY 2023
Every year on June 5th, countries across the globe come together to commemorate World Environment Day (WEP). Lead by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), this day is dedicated to celebrating the commitment of governments, private sector, and individuals in fostering a greener future.
This year, the spotlight is on plastic pollution. With the theme “Solutions to Plastic Pollution”, WEP 2023 dovetails with a significant concern in the ASEAN region in recent years – the prevalence of plastic waste and its implications for disaster management.
The ASEAN region is an epicentre of rapid economic growth and urbanisation. With progress, however, comes the heavy reliance on plastics, especially single-use varieties. This proliferation of plastic, added with an underdeveloped waste management infrastructure, has resulted in several ASEAN Member States being among the top contributors of mismanaged plastic waste.1
For ASEAN, the link between addressing plastic pollution and strengthening disaster management is clear and compelling. In urban settings, plastic debris may clog drainage systems, turning monsoon rains into devastating floods. This in turn may exacerbate the region’s vulnerability to disasters caused by natural hazards, particularly in member states like the Philippines and Vietnam, which are frequently hit by tropical cyclones. By mitigating plastic waste, the region can significantly reduce its susceptibility to flooding, particularly in urban areas.
Moreover, a cleaner environment ensures that post-disaster clean-up, rehabilitation, and recovery efforts are more streamlined. A landscape free from plastic waste ensures that natural buffers, like mangroves along coastlines, can thrive and protect coastal communities from storm surges.
The commemoration of World Environment Day in 2023 offers a reminder for ASEAN nations to not only highlight the region’s challenges but also to showcase its solutions. Several initiatives have sprouted across the region, emphasising recycling, waste management, and the promotion of eco-friendly alternatives to plastics.
In Vietnam, for example, the Law on Environmental Protection officially came into force in 2022, with the supplement of regulations on plastic waste reduction, recycling, reuse, and treatment.2 Meanwhile, Thailand’s ban on major single-use plastic items is another stride in the right direction.3
To beat plastic pollution and strengthen disaster resilience, the road ahead requires a collaborative approach. Leveraging World Environment Day, ASEAN can foster partnerships — within the region and globally — to share knowledge, resources, and best practices.
Through concerted efforts, regional collaboration, and the momentum of global platforms like World Environment Day, ASEAN is poised to turn the tide, championing a future where sustainability and resilience go hand in hand.
1Bosquet, B. (2023, June 4). Beyond borders: Collaborative solutions to plastic pollution in Southeast Asia. World Bank Blogs.
https://blogs.worldbank.org/eastasiapacific/beyond-borders-collaborative-solutions-plastic-pollution-southeast-asia
2VNA. (2022, September 7). Vietnam takes bold action to tackle plastic waste. VietnamPlus.
https://en.vietnamplus.vn/vietnam-takes-bold-action-to-tackle-plastic-waste/236919.vnp
3Thai PBS World. (2023, July 1). New phase of single-use plastic bag reduction to be launched on July 3rd. Thai PBS World.
https://www.thaipbsworld.com/new-phase-of-single-use-plastic-bag-reduction-to-be-launched-on-july-3rd/
Written by: Gladys Respati
- Published in Insight
Vol 83 – AHA CENTRE RESPONDS TO TROPICAL CYCLONE MYANMAR IN ASEAN

AHA CENTRE RESPONDS TO TROPICAL CYCLONE MYANMAR IN ASEAN
On 14 May 2023, Tropical Cyclone MOCHA made landfall in the state of Rakhine, Myanmar, boasting wind speeds of up to 250km/h equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane. In its aftermath, a total of 17 townships in Rakhine and an additional 4 in Chin state were designated as Natural Disaster-affected areas, with damages to buildings, roads, and bridges estimated to be worth USD 1.5 million1.
To support the people of Myanmar affected by Tropical Cyclone MOCHA, the ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on disaster management (AHA Centre) facilitated the deployment of the ASEAN Emergency Response and Assessment Team (ASEAN-ERAT) to conduct a rapid needs assessment and facilitate the delivery of relief items to communities in need.
From their assessment of the regions of Sittwe, Rathedaung, Ponnagyun, and Kyauktaw, the ASEAN-ERAT pinpointed three sectors as top priorities for humanitarian needs: Food, Shelter and Non-food items, and Water and Sanitation Hygiene (WASH).
As of 28 June 2023, the AHA Centre has mobilised more than USD 1.6 million worth of relief items from the Disaster Emergency Logistics System for ASEAN (DELSA) warehouse in Subang, Malaysia, in the form of jerry cans, shelter repair kits, toolkit shelters, tarpaulins, family tents, kitchen sets, water filtration devices, mosquito nets, family kits, and hygiene kits. These provisions are set to be distributed by Myanmar authorities to the communities most affected by Tropical Cyclone MOCHA.
The mobilisation of ASEAN relief items and ASEAN-ERAT represent the tangible solidarity of the people of ASEAN for the people of Myanmar affected by Tropical Cyclone MOCHA. AHA Centre’s steadfast response also underscores ASEAN’s commitment to regional solidarity in the spirit of ‘One ASEAN One Response’, ensuring that no Member State faces hardship alone.
1SITUATION UPDATE No. 9 – TROPICAL CYCLONE MOCHA, Myanmar – 30 May 2023,
https://ahacentre.org/situation-update/situation-update-no-9-tropical-cyclone-mocha-myanmar-30-may-2023/
Written by: Gladys Respati | Photo by: AHA Centre
- Published in Highlight
Vol 84 – MR. MATI RAIDMA

MR. MATI RAIDMA
One of the crucial components in ARDEX 2023 was the involvement of referees. When all the SOPs and procedures were tested and exercised during ARDEX 2023, referees played an important role to ensure that the exercise was on the right track. Mr. Mati Raidma, an expert from Estonia, is one of the referees who were involved in ARDEX-23 since the beginning. The Column had the opportunity to speak with him on his experience in ARDEX-23.
You were involved in ARDEX in Yogyakarta, Indonesia, as a trainer during the Referee Training in May 2023. You also directly observed the conduct of the actual ARDEX in August 2023. If you may briefly share with us, how did you become involved in this simulation exercise?
“My first involvement with ASEAN was in February 2020 when I was involved in a meeting between the AHA Center and the civil protection authorities of two EU member states, the Swedish Civil Aid Agency (MSB) and the Estonian Rescue Board (ERB). From there, the project “Leveraging ASEAN Capacities for Emergency Response” (LACER) began, which as one component belongs to the general EU program “Integrated Program in Enhancing the Capacity of AHA Center and ASEAN Emergency Response Mechanisms” (EU support to the AHA Center).
Right after that, I had the opportunity to participate as a LACER expert in the Referees Training for the ARDEX 2020 in Manila, Philippines and helped conduct the course. Unfortunately, ARDEX 2020 was canceled due to COVID-19.
This year, when the preparations for ARDEX 2023 started, I was invited to conduct the Referee Training again and I am very happy and proud about it. And then ARDEX itself – a large and complex exercise that visualised the principle “One ASEAN One Response” and brought this feeling to all the hundreds of participants.”
If you may share with us, knowing that ASEAN is a disaster-prone region, how do you see disaster management sector in this region?
“The Disaster Management system in the ASEAN region is definitely in a phase of rapid development. The base, principles and structural logic have been created. The AHA Center, which has an important role to play in this, is doing its best and the progress is impressive.
In such fast processes, the bigger picture is also important. Getting to know the experience of other regions and participating in global networks gives new ideas and confidence in this development process. And at the same time share your valuable experience – that’s how we make the world a safer place to live.”
Based on your observations during the exercise, what can participants learn from ARDEX 2023 and regional disaster management mechanisms?
“In Yogyakarta I saw the great commitment of the organisers, the resource-intensive preparation of the host country and the satisfaction of the participants – the opportunity to practice together, better understand each other and exchange experiences is especially important here.
Regional cooperation in disasters and adherence to agreed protocols is critical and can be trained in exercises – in a controlled and safe environment. ARDEX plays a unique role in this sense. It is very useful and instructive for the all participants to understand the complexity of the whole operation and the various coordinating bodies.
One of the main ideas of organising exercises is to test the functioning of the agreed procedures (SASOP in the case of ARDEX) and to find ideas and opportunities for development. The work of the Referee team was targeted to support the fulfillment of this task. I hope that the after exercise report contains several useful recommendations for the future.”
Did you see any particular lessons learned that may distinguish this exercise compared to other similar disaster simulation exercises??
“The idea of comprehensiveness can distinguish ARDEX from other similar international exercises. It is great. At the same time, balancing the national and international proportions of the exercise, synchronising the simultaneous execution of CPX and FTX and thereby keeping all the different participants interested and active are very big challenges that I would recommend to analyse when planning the next exercises.”
Could you also please share with us your first experience working in disaster management?
“My experiences in the field of disaster management are divided into two. Probably my first experience relates to the national level, where I have built and led the national system of the Estonian Rescue Service and the Disaster Management Agency in the 90’s. Internationally, I have been a member of the UN Disaster Assessment and Coordination Team (UNDAC) since 2000, which has given me the opportunity to participate in coordination mechanisms for several natural disasters and in the organising teams of UN Earthquake Response Exercises (UN ERE).”
Written by: Mati Raidma, Moch Syifa
- Published in The Other Side
Vol 84 – ASEAN-ERAT REFRESHER COURSE: PREPARING THE TEAM TO BE DEPLOYED IN ARDEX-23

ASEAN-ERAT REFRESHER COURSE: PREPARING THE TEAM TO BE DEPLOYED IN ARDEX-23
One of the important exercise players during the ASEAN Regional Disaster Response Simulation Exercise (ARDEX-23) is the ASEAN Emergency Response and Assessment Team (ASEAN-ERAT). As one of the region’s humanitarian actors, ASEAN-ERAT plays a significant role in supporting affected Member States during an emergency situation or in the event of a large-scale disaster.
In preparation for the deployment of ASEAN-ERAT to ARDEX-23, the AHA Centre organised the ASEAN-ERAT Refresher Course on 29-30 July 2023, with the aim to refresh knowledge and enhance the preparedness of ASEAN-ERAT members who will be deployed in the regional exercise. This 2-day course saw participation from ASEAN-ERAT members representing all 10 ASEAN Member States, the ASEAN Secretariat, and the AHA Centre.
In preparation for the deployment of ASEAN-ERAT to ARDEX-23, the AHA Centre organised the ASEAN-ERAT Refresher Course on 29-30 July 2023, with the aim to refresh knowledge and enhance the preparedness of ASEAN-ERAT members who will be deployed in the regional exercise. This 2-day course saw participation from ASEAN-ERAT members representing all 10 ASEAN Member States, the ASEAN Secretariat, and the AHA Centre.
Executive Director of the AHA Centre Mr. Lee Yam Ming highlighted the importance of the participation of ASEAN-ERAT members in ARDEX-23. It offers an invaluable opportunity for the Team to gain hands-on experience and learn in an environment that closely simulates real-life scenarios. “The course will also update ASEAN-ERAT members with the latest development of ASEAN disaster emergency response mechanism, tools, and recent deployment,” said Mr. Lee Yam Ming during the opening ceremony of the course.
Furthermore, Mr. Lee Yam Ming mentioned that during the refresher course, ASEAN-ERAT members will also have the opportunity to interact with the United Nations Disaster Assessment and Coordination (UNDAC), enabling them to learn about the interoperability between ASEAN-ERAT and UNDAC. In many disaster situations on the ground, ASEAN-ERAT and UNDAC frequently work together to provide support to the affected country. “This course will strengthen the common understanding that will contribute towards better interoperability between these organisations when working together within the region,” he added.
With the support from Japan-ASEAN Integration Fund (JAIF) and European Union Mission to ASEAN, this ASEAN-ERAT Refresher Course is designed with 20% theory and 80% hands-on learning, to enhance the capacities of ASEAN-ERAT Members in performing tasks, especially during the Table-top Exercise (TTX), Command Post Exercise (CPX) and Field Training/Simulation Exercise (FTX) in ARDEX-23. On 3 August 2023, ASEAN-ERAT members participated in the real CPX with the scenario of a 6.6 magnitude earthquake in Bantul, together with other exercise players of ARDEX-23.
Written by: Moch Syifa
- Published in AHA Centre Diary 1
Vol 84 – STRENGTHENING THE INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY OF THE AHA CENTRE FOR ASEAN DISASTER CAPACITY BUILDING PROGRAMMES

STRENGTHENING THE INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY OF THE AHA CENTRE FOR ASEAN DISASTER CAPACITY BUILDING PROGRAMMES
AHA Centre Work Plan 2025 envisions AHA Centre as an enabler for ASEAN to become a global leader in disaster management by 2025.
The ASEAN Vision 2025 on Disaster Management also outlines the expectations of ASEAN Member States for AHA Centre to “play a stronger role in facilitating capacity building to bring ASEAN Member States to regionally and globally recognized standards” as well as identifying AHA Centre’s potential to become “the network coordinator for regional centres for excellence for training and leadership in disaster management and emergency response and the engagement of the regional policy community” to nurture the next generation of leaders and thought leadership in ASEAN.
On 23 June 2022, Executive Director of AHA Centre, Lee Yam Ming and Ambassador of New Zealand to ASEAN, H.E. Stuart Donald Cave Calman launched AHA Centre’s partnership with New Zealand with a project titled “Strengthening the Institutional Capacity of the AHA Centre for ASEAN Disaster Capacity Building Programmes”. The partnership will focus on strengthening AHA Centre’s institutional capacity to provide world-class disaster management courses and capacity building programmes.
The 1st Project Steering Committee (PSC) Meeting was conducted online on 10 April 2023 to update the PSC members on the progress of the project. This included updates on impact study, roadmap, and Learning Management System (LMS).
IMPACT STUDY
Assessing the impact of the previous and existing ASEAN’s capacity building programmes on ASEAN and ASEAN Member Sates capacity and to evaluate the sustainability of the the impacts
ROADMAP
Will serve a comprehensive, concrete, and practical strategy for enhcancing ASEAN and ASEAN Member States capacities on disaster management for the period of 2023 – 2033
LMS
To maximise the impact and widen the coverage of the AHA Centre’s knowledge and outreach
Written by: Moch Syifa
- Published in Partnership
Vol 84 – GET TO KNOW ABOUT OPAK FAULT

GET TO KNOW ABOUT OPAK FAULT
Several geological studies have revealed that Southeast Asia is prone to earthquakes. This is inseparable from the fact that Southeast Asia is at the crossroads of three tectonic plates: the Pacific Ocean/Philippine Ocean Plate to the east, the Indo-Australian Plate to the south, and the Eurasian Plate to the northwest.
Opak Fault refers to a subsurface fault beneath the Opak River, 30 km southeast of Yogyakarta, and is covered by deposits of the young Mount Merapi, located in Bantul regency, southeast of Yogyakarta, within the southern Mount Merapi area. Early concerns about the existence of the Opak Fault arose when Dr. S. W. Visser reported an earthquake in Yogyakarta in 1867, with its epicenter located near the Opak River. It is also thought to have caused the formation of the Yogyakarta Basin, where the city of Yogyakarta is located.
The Opak Fault has an average depth of 55-82m, while its displacement ranges from 5-10m. Opak Fault is a normal fault that runs from southwest (SW) to northeast (NE); the west of the Opak Fault shows an uplift movement, while the east of the Opak Fault shows a subsidence movement. The fault runs through the Yogya Lowlands and the Wonosari Plateau, with old andesite rocks (OAF) as structural elements. This fault system also includes the Semilir Formation and the Nglanggran Formation to the east of Opak.
There is a significant surface deformation along the Opak Fault, which could be driven by the postseismic effect following the 2006 Yogyakarta earthquake or by aseismic creep. This long-term surface deformation can also affect various aspects of earthquake-affected land, including infrastructure and environmental damage.
The earthquake in Yogyakarta on 27 May 2006 was one of the worst disasters experienced by the people of Yogyakarta and Indonesia. Over 5,700 people were killed, 37,927 were injured, 240,396 homes were destroyed, and local infrastructure and economic activities were severely affected.
Located in the southern part of Java, Yogyakarta is prone to experiencing moderate to high-magnitude earthquakes (M > 6.0) with return periods of 50–100 years, making it one of Indonesia’s most seismically active cities. Of the 12 earthquakes in Yogyakarta from 1804-2006, three earthquakes, including the 2006 earthquake, were related to the movement of the Opak fault.
More recently, on 30 June 2023, Yogyakarta was hit by an earthquake measuring 5.8 (USGS) or 6.4 on the magnitude scale, although it only caused minor damage. This could also be attributed to the public’s preparedness and the strong structural integrity of buildings – lessons learned following the 2006 earthquake.
The position of the fault plane that cuts through the soil layer with a thickness of about 50 cm – 5 m indicates that this fault is active. Furthermore, the Opak Fault, which is still active, is increasingly showing signs of increased seismic activity based on BMKG monitoring. Communities around the Opak Fault often feel small earthquakes, or what they call “lindu”.
In addition, several areas traversed by the Opak Fault have high liquefaction potential. This is due to the geological environment in the form of alluvium deposits, groundwater table conditions, the path of the active Opak fault zone, and the Bantul basin (Bantul Graben).
Sustainable and resilient countermeasures are needed to deal with various potential disasters in a region historically prone to earthquake disasters, both in Yogyakarta and Southeast Asia. Therefore, the scenario of a 6.6 magnitude earthquake caused by the Opak Fault for the 2023 ASEAN REGIONAL DISASTER SIMULATION EXERCISE (ARDEX) offers a valuable opportunity for local and regional humanitarian actors to prepare for and respond to such a scenario, enhancing their readiness to mitigate the impact of such disasters effectively. The AHA Centre is pleased to participate in ARDEX-23, the ASEAN region’s biggest disaster and emergency response simulation exercise.
Sources
• BBC News Indonesia. (2023, August 5). BMKG Ingatkan Bahaya Sesar Opak, Warga Hanya Bisa Pasrah. kumparan. https://kumparan.com/bbc-news-indonesia/bmkg-ingatkan-bahaya-sesar-opak-warga-hanya-bisa-pasrah-20viEi4cfz3
• Cahyani, E., Afrita, W. N., Aza, A. E. N., & Sumunar, D. R. S. (2019). Pengembangan sistem jaringan evakuasi bencana likuifaksi di wilayah Sesar Opak. Geo Media: Majalah Ilmiah dan Informasi Kegeografian, 0(1).
• Dewanto, B. G., Setiawan, M. B., & Nusantara, G. C. (2020). Opak Fault Deformation Monitoring Using Sentinel-1 InSAR Data from 2016-2019 in Yogyakarta Indonesia. Elipsoida: Jurnal Geodesi dan Geomatika, 0(01), 46-54.
• Fathonah, I. M., Wibowo, N. B., & Sumardi, Y. (2014). Identifikasi Jalur Sesar Opak Berdasarkan Analisis Data Anomali Medan Magnet dan Geologi Regional Yogyakarta. Indonesian Journal Of Applied Physics, 0(02), 192-200.
• Prihatmaji, Y. P., Kitamori, A., & Komatsu, K. (2014). Traditional javanese wooden houses (Joglo) damaged by may 2006 Yogyakarta earthquake, Indonesia. International Journal of Architectural Heritage, 0(2), 247-268.
• Shah, A. A., Qadri, T., & Khwaja, S. (2018). Living with earthquake hazards in South and South East Asia. ASEAN Journal of Community Engagement, 2(1), 2.
• Sihombing, T. (2014). Perkembangan Elemen-Elemen Penting Tektonik Asia. Jurnal Geologi dan Sumberdaya Mineral, 4(2), 63-68.
• Sumartiningtyas, H. K. N. (2023, August 5). Mengenal Sesar Opak, Pusat GEMPA Yogyakarta 2006 halaman all. KOMPAS.com. https://www.kompas.com/sains/read/2023/08/05/093000323/mengenal-sesar-opak-pusat-gempa-yogyakarta-2006?page=all
• Sutiono, A., Prastistho, B., & Prasetyadi, C. (2018, December). Opak fault: a comparative review. In IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science (Vol. 212, No. 1, p. 012049). IOP Publishing.
• Pena-Castellnou, S., Steinritz, V., Marliyani, G. I., & Reicherter, K. (2021, October). Active tectonics of the Yogyakarta area (Central Java, Indonesia): preliminary findings obtained from a tectonic-geomorphic evaluation. In IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science (Vol. 851, No. 1, p. 012005). IOP Publishing.
• Prasetiyo, W. (2023, August 5). Lebih Jauh Soal Sesar Opak Dan potensi GEMPA Kuat di Yogyakarta. kumparan. https://kumparan.com/kumparannews/lebih-jauh-soal-sesar-opak-dan-potensi-gempa-kuat-di-yogyakarta-20vgpHD6DMJ
• Wijaksono, E. (2008). Pemodelan Tiga Dimensi (3D) Zona Sesar Opak Bantul Yogyakarta Berdasarkan Data Anomali Bouguer Lengkap.
Written by: M. Nadhif Achyansyah
- Published in Insight