MONTHLY DISASTER REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
NOVEMBER 2021 | DISASTER MONITORING & ANALYSIS
(DMA) UNIT, AHA CENTRE
GENERAL REVIEW OF NOVEMBER 2021
For the month of November 2021, a total of 145 disasters were reported. The ASEAN Member States that were affected are Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. Most of the disasters (84.14%) occurred in Indonesia and the highest number of affected people were also reported in Indonesia which comprise more than half of the tally for the month of November (54.45%). The share of the disaster-affected people for other ASEAN Member States are as follows: (1) Malaysia-0.20%, (2) the Philippines-1.19%, (3) Thailand-42.72%, and (4) Viet Nam-1.45%. November 2021 saw disasters affecting 144 per 100,000 people* and displacing 4 per 100,000 people* in the region, recording a 57.11% and a 77.23% lower numbers respectively compared with the previous month. November 2021 accounts for 12.06% of the total disasters (1,202) reported so far in the current year.
Most of the disasters that have occurred in November 2021 are floods (83.45%) and is consistently the most recorded type of disaster for November of the previous year and November on a five-year average (2016-2020). November 2021 saw disasters caused by hydrometeorological hazards (flood, landslides, storm, winds) affecting 99.31% of the total affected persons for the month. The reported disasters in the region for November 2021 in comparison to the historical data (average for November 2016-2020) indicates that there were 6x more reported disasters; 2.21x less people affected; 5.62x less people displaced; 1.15x more houses affected to some extent; 4.87x less lives lost; 14.06x less people suffering injuries; and lastly, 1.36x less people that have gone missing.
Geophysically, 20 significant earthquakes (Magnitude ≥ 5.0) were reported by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG), Myanmar’s Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH), and the Philippine Institute for Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). In Central Maluku Indonesia, a Magnitude 5.9 earthquake affected 210 people, displaced 6 people and damaged 42 houses, 1 school, and 2 worship places. Recent volcanic activity was reported for Ili Lewotolok (Alert Level III) and Semeru, Ibu, Dukono (Alert Level II) in Indonesia, and Taal (Alert Level 2) and Kanlaon (Alert Level 1) in the Philippines.
*Computed based on 2020 population data from worldometers.com
ANALYSIS
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), compared to the average value from 2001-2020, during November 2021, rainfall was near-average over much Mainland Southeast Asia, above-average rainfall over southern Mainland Southeast Asia and a mix of below- to above-average for the Maritime Continent (Figure 1). The largest positive anomalies (wetter conditions) were detected over the southern Mainland Southeast Asia for both satellite-derived rainfall estimates datasets (GSMaP-NRT and CMORPH-Blended). This is resulted to flooding in Southern and Western Region of Thailand which is affected 70.8K families (353.9K people) and cost the lives of 2 individuals. Negative anomalies (drier conditions) were recorded over central Sumatra and the Philippines, with larger negative anomalies based on CMORPH-Blended data compared to GSMaP-NRT.
SEASONAL OUTLOOK
From the second half of the month of October 2021, the Southwest Monsoon had transitioned into the inter-monsoon period. On a climatological standpoint, inter-monsoon conditions likely prevails over the ASEAN region in November before the Northeast Monsoon conditions develop in December. Inter-monsoon conditions are characteristic of light and variable in direction prevailing winds. In terms of precipitation, the monsoon rain band will be located closer to the equator hence an increase in rainfall over the equatorial ASEAN region can be expected.
In the coming period (December 2021 to February 2022), there is an increased chance of near- to above-normal rainfall over much of the Maritime Continent , and a mix of below- to above-normal rainfall over Mainland Southeast Asia with the above-normal rainfall possibly pertaining to chances of hydrometeorological disasters occurring. La Niña conditions are present and models are predicting weak to moderate La Niña conditions until March-April, after which the conditions are predicted to weaken. The negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event has ended and is expected to be neutral for the coming months. Warmer-than-usual temperature is expected for much of the Maritime Continent and Myanmar during the period of December 2021 to February 2022.
The dry season over the southern ASEAN region had ended in mid-October 2021. In the northern ASEAN region, the traditional dry season typically sets in at the end of the year. While there is an increased chance of above-normal rainfall over some parts of the northern ASEAN region, hotspot and smoke haze activity can still be expected to progressively intensify over the fire-prone areas in the Mekong sub-region, with an increased likelihood of transboundary haze occurrence during this period.
*Note from ASMC: The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general and based on the latest runs from models provided by the SEA RCC-Network LRF node. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.
Sources: ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet), ASEAN Disaster Monitoring and Response System (DMRS), ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) – Indonesia, Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) – Malaysia, Department of Disaster Management (DDM) – Myanmar, National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) – Philippines, Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) – Thailand, Viet Nam Disaster Management Authority (VNDMA) – Viet Nam, Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG) – Indonesia, Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) – Indonesia, Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH) – Myanmar, Philippine Institute for Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) – Philippines, Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) – Philippines
Written by : Keith Paolo Landicho, Sadhu Zukhruf Janottama, Lawrence Anthony Dimailig
DISCLAIMER
The AHA Centre’s estimation is based on data and information shared by National Disaster Management Organisations (NDMOs) and other relevant agencies from ASEAN Member States, international organisations, and news agencies. Further information on each recorded significant disaster, description, and detail of data and information are available at: http://adinet.ahacentre.org/reports.
