Vol 82 – MONTHLY DISASTER REVIEW AND OUTLOOK

GENERAL REVIEW OF MAY 2023

For the month of May 2023, a total of 88 disasters were reported. The ASEAN Member States that were affected are Indonesia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. Most of the disasters (70%) occurred in Indonesia but only accounted for 8% of the affected persons (around 154,000). Notably, Myanmar accounted for most of the affected persons despite reporting only 1 disaster event—Tropical Cyclone MOCHA with 63% of the total reported affected persons for the month of May. The share of the disaster-affected people for the other ASEAN Member States are as follows: (1) Philippines-11%, (2) Thailand-18.12% and (3) Viet Nam-0.03%. May 2023 saw disasters affecting 284 per 100,000 people* and displacing 137 per 100,000 people* in the region, which were 3 times and 15 times higher respectively compared to the previous month.

Most of the disasters that have occurred in May 2023 are floods (51%) and is consistently the most recorded type of disaster for May of the previous year and May on a five-year average (2018-2022). The reported disasters in the region for May 2023 in comparison to the historical data (average for May 2018-2022) indicates that there were about 1.4x more reported disasters; 4.8x more people affected; 66x more people internally displaced; 7x more houses affected to some extent; 27x more lives lost; and 3.5x less people suffering injuries;.

Geophysically, 24 significant earthquakes (Magnitude ≥ 5.0) were reported by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG), Thailand Meteorological Department (TMD), and the Philippine Institute for Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS).

Mount Semeru (Alert Level III), Anak Krakatau (Alert Level III), Ili Lewotolok (Alert Level II), Dukono (Alert Level II), and Ibu (Alert Level II) in Indonesia and Taal (Alert Level 2) and Kanlaon Volcanoes (Alert Level 1) were reportedly tectonically active (erupting lava or releasing gas or generating seismic activity) throughout the month of May 2023.

*computed based on 2023 population data from worldometers.com

ANALYSIS

According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), compared to the average value from 2001-2022, during May 2023, less to near-average rainfall was experienced in Mainland Southeast Asia but more to near-average for the Maritime Continent. The largest difference (driest condition) from the average rainfall was observed over southern Myanmar and southern Thailand. Despite these dry conditions detected over Myanmar, a MAJOR disaster was caused by Tropical Cyclone MOCHA in its western and northwestern regions. As shown in Figure 1.a and 1.b, despite majorly exhibiting drier conditions, the areas within the track of cyclone MOCHA exhibited drier than normal conditions.

SEASONAL OUTLOOK

According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), Southwest Monsoon conditions are expected to be established from June 2023 and persist until August 2023. These conditions traditionally bring rain often resulting in widespread and persistent shower activities in the northern ASEAN region. Over the southern ASEAN region, the Southwest Monsoon seasons is characterised by drier conditions compared to other times of the year, as the monsoon rain band typically lies further north from the Equator.

For the next 3 months, (June-July-August 2023), an increased chance of below-normal rainfall is predicted for much of the southern ASEAN region, with highest likelihood over the southern Maritime Continent. ENSO neutral conditions are present but will likely transition into El Nino in the next few months. Warmer-than-normal temperature is predicted for much of the ASEAN region.

Note: The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general and based on the latest runs from models provided by the SEA RCC-Network LRF node. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

Sources: ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet), ASEAN Disaster Monitoring and Response System (DMRS), ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) – Indonesia, Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) – Malaysia, Department of Disaster Management (DDM) – Myanmar, National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) – Philippines, Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) – Thailand, Thai Meteorological Department (TMD) – TMD, Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG) – Indonesia, Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) – Indonesia, Philippine Institute for Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) – Philippines, Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) – Philippines

Written by : Keith Paolo Landicho, Sadhu Zukhruf Janottama, Lawrence Anthony Dimailig