Vol 74 – MONTHLY DISASTER REVIEW AND OUTLOOK

GENERAL REVIEW OF JUNE 2021

For the month of June 2021, a total of 53 disasters were reported. The ASEAN Member States affected were Indonesia, Lao PDR, the Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam. A majority of the disasters (47.17%) occurred in Indonesia which also accounted for 31.23% of the total number of affected people for the month (Lao PDR-7.41%, the Philippines-55.73%, Thailand-4.52%, Viet Nam-0.23%). June 2021 saw disasters affecting 42 per 100,000 people* and displacing 4 per 100,000 people* in the region. June 2021 also accounted for roughly one-tenth (9.36%) of the total disasters and 44.1% of damage costs reported so far in the current year.

Most of the disasters that occurred in June 2021 were floods (45.28%) and this is consistent with June of the previous year and June on a five-year average (2016-2020). Floods for June 2021 impacted only a third (34%) of the total number of affected people with 56.34% affected by tropical cyclone-related hazards (floods, landslides, storms and winds). The reported disasters in the region for June 2021 in comparison with the historical data (average for June 2016-2020) indicates that there were 2.12x more reported disasters; 3x fewer people affected; 8.2x more people displaced; 1.76x more houses affected to some extent; 2.5x fewer lives lost; 1.5x fewer people suffering injuries; and lastly, 3.69x fewer people missing.

Geophysically, 16 significant earthquakes (Magnitude ≥ 5.0) were reported by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG) and the Philippine Institute for Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). A Magnitude 6.1 earthquake that occurred 67 km Southeast of Central Maluku in week 24 caused a sea level rise of 0.5m according to the BMKG, damage to 233 houses and three places of worship, and displaced 8,800 persons into 56 evacuation centres. Volcanoes in Indonesia and the Philippines have shown recent activity but have not resulted in significant events and are continuously being monitored.

*Computed based on 2020 population data from worldometers.com

ANALYSIS

According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), during June 2021, areas that received above-average rainfall were the western and central Maritime Continent (except Borneo), and northeastern parts of Mainland Southeast Asia. This agrees spatially with the disaster reports for the month of June. The largest positive anomalies (wetter conditions) were recorded over Java and northern Viet Nam (due to Tropical Storm Koguma). The eastern Maritime Continent predominately experienced below-average rainfall except for central parts of the Philippines due to the development of Tropical Storm Choi-Wan.

SPOTLIGHT

Tropical Storm Choi-Wan, locally known in the Philippines as “Dante”, caused flooding and damage mostly in the central Philippines. TS Choi-Wan was the third named storm of the 2021 Pacific typhoon season and originated from an area of low pressure south-southeast of Guam later fuelled by an environment favorable for tropical cyclogenesis according to the JTWC and JMA. TS Choi-Wan made a total of eight landfalls across the Philippines affecting a number of areas of the country from 1 June up until it left the Philippine Area of Responsibility on the 4 June. The storm reportedly claimed 11 lives, caused three injuries, affected 32,800 families (137,900 persons), and displaced 16,000 persons.

SEASONAL OUTLOOK

Southwest Monsoon conditions are expected to continue in July 2021 as the prevailing low-level winds over the ASEAN region strengthen and blow from the southeast or southwest, with the passage of the monsoon rain band further north of the equator in the second half of the month. The Southwest Monsoon season is the traditional dry season for the southern ASEAN region, which typically brings extended periods of dry conditions over the region. For the northern ASEAN region, the Southwest Monsoon is the traditional wet season.

For the July to September 2021 period, models predict an increased chance of above-normal rainfall for most of the equatorial ASEAN region from 8°N to 10°S. ENSO-neutral conditions are forecast to continue for the next three months. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is close to the negative state and models are forecasting a negative IOD for the July to September 2021 period. A negative IOD tends to bring above-average rainfall for the southern ASEAN region for this time of the year. Warmer-than-usual temperature is expected for most of the ASEAN region except for Borneo and southern Sumatra where near- to above-normal temperature is predicted.

The dry season for the southern ASEAN region is expected to extend from July to October 2021. During these months, isolated to scattered hotspots are likely during dry periods and widespread hotspots can be expected during extended dry periods, which may lead to an increased risk of transboundary haze occurrence. Nonetheless, due to predicted above-normal rainfall for the southern ASEAN region from July to September 2021, a recurrence of a similar 2015 (El Niño year) or a 2019 (positive IOD year) severe haze event is unlikely. Shower activities are expected to persist for the northern ASEAN region during this period, and help to subdue hotspot and smoke haze activities.

Sources: ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet), ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), ASEAN Disaster Monitoring and Response System (DMRS), Cambodia National Committee on Disaster Management (NCDM), Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB), Malaysia Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA), Myanmar Department of Disaster Management (DDM), National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), Thailand Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM), Viet Nam Disaster Management Authority (VNDMA), Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG), Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG), Philippine Institute for Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS)

Written by : Keith Paolo Landicho, Sadhu Zukhruf Janottama, Lawrence Anthony Dimailig