Vol 83 – MONTHLY DISASTER REVIEW AND OUTLOOK

GENERAL REVIEW OF JUNE 2023

For the month of June 2023, a total of 65 disasters were reported. The ASEAN Member States that were affected are Indonesia, the Philippines, and Viet Nam. Most of the disasters (66%) occurred in Indonesia but only accounted for 15% of the affected persons (around 78K persons). Notably, Philippines accounted for most of the affected persons despite reporting only 19 disasters events—Flooding in BARMM with 46.25% of the total reported affected persons for the month of June. The share of the disaster-affected people for the other ASEAN Member States are as follows: (1) Philippines-85.12%, (2) Indonesia-14.85%, and (3) Viet Nam-0.03%. June 2023 saw disasters affecting 77 per 100,000 people* and displacing 6 per 100,000 people* in the region, which were 4 times and 23 times lower respectively compared to the previous month.

Most of the disasters that have occurred in June 2023 are floods (45%) and is consistently the most recorded type of disaster for June of the previous year and June on a five-year average (2018-2022). The reported disasters in the region for June 2023 in comparison to the historical data (average for June 2018-2022) indicates that there were about 1.1x more reported disasters; 1.6x less people affected; 1.6x more people internally displaced; 2.3x less houses affected to some extent; 2.2x less lives lost; and 4.9x more people suffering injuries.

GENERAL REVIEW OF JULY 2023

For the month of July 2023, a total of 93 disasters were reported. The ASEAN Member States that were affected are Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. Most of the disasters (72%) occurred in Indonesia but only accounted for 1.72% of the affected persons (around 101K persons). Notably, Philippines accounted for most of the affected persons despite reporting only 13 disasters event—Combined Effects of the Southwest Monsoon, TC DOKSURI, TC KHANUN, and TC TALIM with 94.29% of the total reported affected persons for the month of July. The share of the disaster-affected people for the other ASEAN Member States are as follows: (1) Philippines-98.016%, (2) Indonesia-1.723%, Thailand-0.238%, Viet Nam 0.022%, and Malaysia 0.001%. July 2023 saw disasters affecting 774 per 100,000 people* and displacing 76 per 100,000 people* in the region, which were 10 times and 4 times higher respectively compared to the previous month.

Most of the disasters that have occurred in July 2023 are floods (60%) and is consistently the most recorded type of disaster for July of the previous year and July on a five-year average (2018-2022). The reported disasters in the region for July 2023 in comparison to the historical data (average for July 2018-2022) indicates that there were about 1.5x more reported disasters; 3.2x more people affected; 1.5x less people internally displaced; 3.3x more houses affected to some extent; 1.2x more lives lost; and 1.5x more people suffering injuries.

GEOPHYSICAL CONDITION FOR JUNE AND JULY 2023

Geophysically, 48 significant earthquakes (Magnitude ≥ 5.0) were reported by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG), Myanmar’s Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH), and the Philippine Institute for Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS), and the Thai Meteorological Department (TMD) for the period of June to July 2023 (the period of Weeks 22-30).

Mount Semeru (Alert Level III), Anak Krakatau (Alert Level III), Dukono (Alert Level II), Ibu (Alert Level II), Ili Lewotolok (Alert Level II), and Karangetang (Alert Level III) in Indonesia and Mayon (Alert Level 3), Taal (Alert Level 1), and Kanlaon Volcanoes (Alert Level 1) were reportedly tectonically active (erupting lava or releasing gas or generating seismic activity) throughout the month of June to July 2023 (the period of Weeks 22-30).

PHIVOLCS raised the Mayon Volcano Alert Level to 3 (Increased Tendency Towards Hazardous Eruption) since 8 June. As of 14 August, Mayon Volcano remains in a relatively high level of unrest as magma is at the crater and hazardous eruptions are possible within weeks or days. According to NDRRMC, as of 13 August 2023, 9.9K families (38.4K persons) have been affected and 20.3K persons internally displaced in 27 evacuation centres. The NDRRMC with other relevant-agencies/stakeholders have provided 5.7M USD worth of assistance to those affected.

*computed based on 2023 population data from worldometers.com

ANALYSIS

According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), compared to the average value from 2001-2022, during June 2023, above-average rainfall was experienced in the eastern parts of the Mainland Southeast Asia and western Maritime Continent but less to above-average for the rest of the ASEAN Region. The largest difference (driest condition) from the average rainfall was observed over western coast to northern parts and southern Myanmar, western Thailand (bordering with southern parts of Myanmar), and the Visayas of the Philippines. Wetter conditions which is detected over Mindanao of the Philippines, have also resulted a MODERATE disaster in the area of BARMM Region. As shown in Figure 1 left wetter than normal conditions are detected over Mindanao, the Philippines.

For the month of July 2023, according to the ASMC, compared to the average value from 2001-2022, above-average rainfall was experienced over much of the western half of the maritime continent; below-average rainfall was experienced over the northeastern parts of the Mainland Southeast Asia and eastern Maritime Continent; and mix of below to above-average rainfall for the rest of the ASEAN Region. The largest positive (wetter) anomalies were recorded over parts of southern Myanmar, southern Viet Nam, and northern Philippines. Particularly for the wetter conditions in the northern parts of the Philippines as shown in Figure 2 left, a CATASTROPHIC disaster was caused by the Combined Effects of the Southwest Monsoon, TC DOKSURI, TC KHANUN, and TC TALIM.

SEASONAL OUTLOOK

According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), compared to the average value from 2001-2022, during June 2023, above-average rainfall was experienced in the eastern parts of the Mainland Southeast Asia and western Maritime Continent but less to above-average for the rest of the ASEAN Region. The largest difference (driest condition) from the average rainfall was observed over western coast to northern parts and southern Myanmar, western Thailand (bordering with southern parts of Myanmar), and the Visayas of the Philippines. Wetter conditions which is detected over Mindanao of the Philippines, have also resulted a MODERATE disaster in the area of BARMM Region. As shown in Figure 1 left wetter than normal conditions are detected over Mindanao, the Philippines.

For the month of July 2023, according to the ASMC, compared to the average value from 2001-2022, above-average rainfall was experienced over much of the western half of the maritime continent; below-average rainfall was experienced over the northeastern parts of the Mainland Southeast Asia and eastern Maritime Continent; and mix of below to above-average rainfall for the rest of the ASEAN Region. The largest positive (wetter) anomalies were recorded over parts of southern Myanmar, southern Viet Nam, and northern Philippines. Particularly for the wetter conditions in the northern parts of the Philippines as shown in Figure 2 left, a CATASTROPHIC disaster was caused by the Combined Effects of the Southwest Monsoon, TC DOKSURI, TC KHANUN, and TC TALIM.

Note: The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general and based on the latest runs from models provided by the SEA RCC-Network LRF node. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.

Sources: ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet), ASEAN Disaster Monitoring and Response System (DMRS), ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) – Indonesia, Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) – Malaysia, Department of Disaster Management (DDM) – Myanmar, National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) – Philippines, Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) – Thailand, Thai Meteorological Department (TMD) – TMD, Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG) – Indonesia, Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) – Indonesia, Philippine Institute for Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) – Philippines, Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) – Philippines

Written by : Sadhu Zukhruf Janottama, Lawrence Anthony Dimailig