ASEAN-ERAT REFRESHER COURSE: PREPARING THE TEAM TO BE DEPLOYED IN ARDEX-23
One of the important exercise players during the ASEAN Regional Disaster Response Simulation Exercise (ARDEX-23) is the ASEAN Emergency Response and Assessment Team (ASEAN-ERAT). As one of the region’s humanitarian actors, ASEAN-ERAT plays a significant role in supporting affected Member States during an emergency situation or in the event of a large-scale disaster.
In preparation for the deployment of ASEAN-ERAT to ARDEX-23, the AHA Centre organised the ASEAN-ERAT Refresher Course on 29-30 July 2023, with the aim to refresh knowledge and enhance the preparedness of ASEAN-ERAT members who will be deployed in the regional exercise. This 2-day course saw participation from ASEAN-ERAT members representing all 10 ASEAN Member States, the ASEAN Secretariat, and the AHA Centre.
In preparation for the deployment of ASEAN-ERAT to ARDEX-23, the AHA Centre organised the ASEAN-ERAT Refresher Course on 29-30 July 2023, with the aim to refresh knowledge and enhance the preparedness of ASEAN-ERAT members who will be deployed in the regional exercise. This 2-day course saw participation from ASEAN-ERAT members representing all 10 ASEAN Member States, the ASEAN Secretariat, and the AHA Centre.
Executive Director of the AHA Centre Mr. Lee Yam Ming highlighted the importance of the participation of ASEAN-ERAT members in ARDEX-23. It offers an invaluable opportunity for the Team to gain hands-on experience and learn in an environment that closely simulates real-life scenarios. “The course will also update ASEAN-ERAT members with the latest development of ASEAN disaster emergency response mechanism, tools, and recent deployment,” said Mr. Lee Yam Ming during the opening ceremony of the course.
Furthermore, Mr. Lee Yam Ming mentioned that during the refresher course, ASEAN-ERAT members will also have the opportunity to interact with the United Nations Disaster Assessment and Coordination (UNDAC), enabling them to learn about the interoperability between ASEAN-ERAT and UNDAC. In many disaster situations on the ground, ASEAN-ERAT and UNDAC frequently work together to provide support to the affected country. “This course will strengthen the common understanding that will contribute towards better interoperability between these organisations when working together within the region,” he added.
With the support from Japan-ASEAN Integration Fund (JAIF) and European Union Mission to ASEAN, this ASEAN-ERAT Refresher Course is designed with 20% theory and 80% hands-on learning, to enhance the capacities of ASEAN-ERAT Members in performing tasks, especially during the Table-top Exercise (TTX), Command Post Exercise (CPX) and Field Training/Simulation Exercise (FTX) in ARDEX-23. On 3 August 2023, ASEAN-ERAT members participated in the real CPX with the scenario of a 6.6 magnitude earthquake in Bantul, together with other exercise players of ARDEX-23.
Written by: Moch Syifa
STRENGTHENING THE INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY OF THE AHA CENTRE FOR ASEAN DISASTER CAPACITY BUILDING PROGRAMMES
AHA Centre Work Plan 2025 envisions AHA Centre as an enabler for ASEAN to become a global leader in disaster management by 2025.
The ASEAN Vision 2025 on Disaster Management also outlines the expectations of ASEAN Member States for AHA Centre to “play a stronger role in facilitating capacity building to bring ASEAN Member States to regionally and globally recognized standards” as well as identifying AHA Centre’s potential to become “the network coordinator for regional centres for excellence for training and leadership in disaster management and emergency response and the engagement of the regional policy community” to nurture the next generation of leaders and thought leadership in ASEAN.
On 23 June 2022, Executive Director of AHA Centre, Lee Yam Ming and Ambassador of New Zealand to ASEAN, H.E. Stuart Donald Cave Calman launched AHA Centre’s partnership with New Zealand with a project titled “Strengthening the Institutional Capacity of the AHA Centre for ASEAN Disaster Capacity Building Programmes”. The partnership will focus on strengthening AHA Centre’s institutional capacity to provide world-class disaster management courses and capacity building programmes.
The 1st Project Steering Committee (PSC) Meeting was conducted online on 10 April 2023 to update the PSC members on the progress of the project. This included updates on impact study, roadmap, and Learning Management System (LMS).
IMPACT STUDY
Assessing the impact of the previous and existing ASEAN’s capacity building programmes on ASEAN and ASEAN Member Sates capacity and to evaluate the sustainability of the the impacts
ROADMAP
Will serve a comprehensive, concrete, and practical strategy for enhcancing ASEAN and ASEAN Member States capacities on disaster management for the period of 2023 – 2033
LMS
To maximise the impact and widen the coverage of the AHA Centre’s knowledge and outreach
Written by: Moch Syifa
GET TO KNOW ABOUT OPAK FAULT
Several geological studies have revealed that Southeast Asia is prone to earthquakes. This is inseparable from the fact that Southeast Asia is at the crossroads of three tectonic plates: the Pacific Ocean/Philippine Ocean Plate to the east, the Indo-Australian Plate to the south, and the Eurasian Plate to the northwest.
Opak Fault refers to a subsurface fault beneath the Opak River, 30 km southeast of Yogyakarta, and is covered by deposits of the young Mount Merapi, located in Bantul regency, southeast of Yogyakarta, within the southern Mount Merapi area. Early concerns about the existence of the Opak Fault arose when Dr. S. W. Visser reported an earthquake in Yogyakarta in 1867, with its epicenter located near the Opak River. It is also thought to have caused the formation of the Yogyakarta Basin, where the city of Yogyakarta is located.
The Opak Fault has an average depth of 55-82m, while its displacement ranges from 5-10m. Opak Fault is a normal fault that runs from southwest (SW) to northeast (NE); the west of the Opak Fault shows an uplift movement, while the east of the Opak Fault shows a subsidence movement. The fault runs through the Yogya Lowlands and the Wonosari Plateau, with old andesite rocks (OAF) as structural elements. This fault system also includes the Semilir Formation and the Nglanggran Formation to the east of Opak.
There is a significant surface deformation along the Opak Fault, which could be driven by the postseismic effect following the 2006 Yogyakarta earthquake or by aseismic creep. This long-term surface deformation can also affect various aspects of earthquake-affected land, including infrastructure and environmental damage.
The earthquake in Yogyakarta on 27 May 2006 was one of the worst disasters experienced by the people of Yogyakarta and Indonesia. Over 5,700 people were killed, 37,927 were injured, 240,396 homes were destroyed, and local infrastructure and economic activities were severely affected.
Located in the southern part of Java, Yogyakarta is prone to experiencing moderate to high-magnitude earthquakes (M > 6.0) with return periods of 50–100 years, making it one of Indonesia’s most seismically active cities. Of the 12 earthquakes in Yogyakarta from 1804-2006, three earthquakes, including the 2006 earthquake, were related to the movement of the Opak fault.
More recently, on 30 June 2023, Yogyakarta was hit by an earthquake measuring 5.8 (USGS) or 6.4 on the magnitude scale, although it only caused minor damage. This could also be attributed to the public’s preparedness and the strong structural integrity of buildings – lessons learned following the 2006 earthquake.
The position of the fault plane that cuts through the soil layer with a thickness of about 50 cm – 5 m indicates that this fault is active. Furthermore, the Opak Fault, which is still active, is increasingly showing signs of increased seismic activity based on BMKG monitoring. Communities around the Opak Fault often feel small earthquakes, or what they call “lindu”.
In addition, several areas traversed by the Opak Fault have high liquefaction potential. This is due to the geological environment in the form of alluvium deposits, groundwater table conditions, the path of the active Opak fault zone, and the Bantul basin (Bantul Graben).
Sustainable and resilient countermeasures are needed to deal with various potential disasters in a region historically prone to earthquake disasters, both in Yogyakarta and Southeast Asia. Therefore, the scenario of a 6.6 magnitude earthquake caused by the Opak Fault for the 2023 ASEAN REGIONAL DISASTER SIMULATION EXERCISE (ARDEX) offers a valuable opportunity for local and regional humanitarian actors to prepare for and respond to such a scenario, enhancing their readiness to mitigate the impact of such disasters effectively. The AHA Centre is pleased to participate in ARDEX-23, the ASEAN region’s biggest disaster and emergency response simulation exercise.
Sources
• BBC News Indonesia. (2023, August 5). BMKG Ingatkan Bahaya Sesar Opak, Warga Hanya Bisa Pasrah. kumparan. https://kumparan.com/bbc-news-indonesia/bmkg-ingatkan-bahaya-sesar-opak-warga-hanya-bisa-pasrah-20viEi4cfz3
• Cahyani, E., Afrita, W. N., Aza, A. E. N., & Sumunar, D. R. S. (2019). Pengembangan sistem jaringan evakuasi bencana likuifaksi di wilayah Sesar Opak. Geo Media: Majalah Ilmiah dan Informasi Kegeografian, 0(1).
• Dewanto, B. G., Setiawan, M. B., & Nusantara, G. C. (2020). Opak Fault Deformation Monitoring Using Sentinel-1 InSAR Data from 2016-2019 in Yogyakarta Indonesia. Elipsoida: Jurnal Geodesi dan Geomatika, 0(01), 46-54.
• Fathonah, I. M., Wibowo, N. B., & Sumardi, Y. (2014). Identifikasi Jalur Sesar Opak Berdasarkan Analisis Data Anomali Medan Magnet dan Geologi Regional Yogyakarta. Indonesian Journal Of Applied Physics, 0(02), 192-200.
• Prihatmaji, Y. P., Kitamori, A., & Komatsu, K. (2014). Traditional javanese wooden houses (Joglo) damaged by may 2006 Yogyakarta earthquake, Indonesia. International Journal of Architectural Heritage, 0(2), 247-268.
• Shah, A. A., Qadri, T., & Khwaja, S. (2018). Living with earthquake hazards in South and South East Asia. ASEAN Journal of Community Engagement, 2(1), 2.
• Sihombing, T. (2014). Perkembangan Elemen-Elemen Penting Tektonik Asia. Jurnal Geologi dan Sumberdaya Mineral, 4(2), 63-68.
• Sumartiningtyas, H. K. N. (2023, August 5). Mengenal Sesar Opak, Pusat GEMPA Yogyakarta 2006 halaman all. KOMPAS.com. https://www.kompas.com/sains/read/2023/08/05/093000323/mengenal-sesar-opak-pusat-gempa-yogyakarta-2006?page=all
• Sutiono, A., Prastistho, B., & Prasetyadi, C. (2018, December). Opak fault: a comparative review. In IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science (Vol. 212, No. 1, p. 012049). IOP Publishing.
• Pena-Castellnou, S., Steinritz, V., Marliyani, G. I., & Reicherter, K. (2021, October). Active tectonics of the Yogyakarta area (Central Java, Indonesia): preliminary findings obtained from a tectonic-geomorphic evaluation. In IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science (Vol. 851, No. 1, p. 012005). IOP Publishing.
• Prasetiyo, W. (2023, August 5). Lebih Jauh Soal Sesar Opak Dan potensi GEMPA Kuat di Yogyakarta. kumparan. https://kumparan.com/kumparannews/lebih-jauh-soal-sesar-opak-dan-potensi-gempa-kuat-di-yogyakarta-20vgpHD6DMJ
• Wijaksono, E. (2008). Pemodelan Tiga Dimensi (3D) Zona Sesar Opak Bantul Yogyakarta Berdasarkan Data Anomali Bouguer Lengkap.
Written by: M. Nadhif Achyansyah
MONTHLY DISASTER REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
AUGUST 2023 | DISASTER MONITORING & ANALYSIS
(DMA) UNIT, AHA CENTRE
GENERAL REVIEW OF AUGUST 2023
For the month of August 2023, a total of 99 disasters were reported. The ASEAN Member States that were affected are Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. Most of the disasters (59.6%) occurred in Indonesia and accounted for 42.66% of the affected persons (around 1M persons) the second-highest number of affected persons for August 2023. The Philippines accounted for most of the affected persons despite reporting only 12 disaster events — the Effects of Southwest Monsoon enhanced by Tropical Cyclone SAOLA, Tropical Cyclone HAIKUI, and Tropical Cyclone YUN-YEUNG with 46% of the total reported affected persons for the month of August 2023. The share of the disaster-affected people for the other ASEAN Member States are as follows: (1) Philippines-47.32%, (2) Indonesia-42.66%, Lao PDR-3.99%, Myanmar-3.04%, Cambodia-2.53%, Viet Nam-0.35%, and Thailand 0.1%. August 2023 saw disasters affecting 347 per 100,000 people* and displacing 11 per 100,000 people* in the region, which were almost 2 times lower respectively compared to the previous month.
Most of the disasters that have occurred in August 2023 were floods (46.5%) which is occurred in the northern sides of the equatorial line and is consistently the most recorded type of disaster for August of the previous year and August on a five-year average (2018-2022). However, due to the effects of El Nino, droughts are the second-highest disaster report (28%) for August 2023, especially in the southern parts of the equatorial line (Indonesia). The reported disasters in the region for August 2023 in comparison to the historical data (average for August 2018-2022) indicates that there were about 1.3x more reported disasters; 1.6x more people affected; 1.7x less people internally displaced; 1.9x less houses affected to some extent; 2.4x more lives lost; and 1x equal people suffering injuries.
GEOPHYSICAL CONDITION FOR AUGUST 2023
Geophysically, 30 significant earthquakes (Magnitude ≥ 5.0) were reported by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG) and the Philippine Institute for Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) for the period of August 2023.
Mount Semeru (Alert Level ), Ili Lewotolok (alert Level ), Ibu (Alert Level ), and Dempo (Alert Level ) in Indonesia and Mayon (Alert Level 3), Taal (Alert Level 1), and Kanlaon Volcanoes (Alert Level 1) were reportedly tectonically active (erupting lava or releasing gas or generating seismic activity) throughout the month of August 2023.
As of 18 September PHIVOLCS maintained the Mayon Volcano Alert Level at Alert Level 3 (Increased Tendency Towards Hazardous Eruption). Mayon Volcano remains in a relatively high level of unrest as magma is at the crater and hazardous eruptions are possible within weeks or days. According to NDRRMC, as of 16 September 2023, 9.9K families (38.4K persons) have been affected and 13.6K persons remains internally displaced in 21 evacuation centres. The NDRRMC with other relevant-agencies/stakeholders have provided 7.7M USD worth of assistance to those affected.
*computed based on 2023 population data from worldometers.com
ANALYSIS
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), compared to the average value from 2001-2022, during August 2023, below-average rainfall was experienced in the central and southern parts of the Mainland Southeast Asia, and southern half of the Maritime Continent, while a mix of below-to above-average rainfall was experienced over the rest of the ASEAN region. The largest positive (wetter) anomalies were recorded over parts of western Myanmar, the largest negative (drier) anomalies were recorded over parts of Cambodia and southern Sumatra, parts of the Maluku Islands and southern Papua as shown in Figure 1. Particularly for the wetter conditions in the Philippines as shown in Figure 1, a MAJOR disaster was caused by the Effects of Southwest Monsoon enhanced by Tropical Cyclone SAOLA, Tropical Cyclone HAIKUI, and Tropical Cyclone YUN-YEUNG.
SEASONAL OUTLOOK
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), Southwest Monsoon conditions were observed in August 2023 and are expected to transition to the inter-monsoon period in the latter part of October 2023. These conditions traditionally bring light and variable winds and increased shower activities in the equatorial region as the monsoon rain-band shifts southwards into the region.
For the next 3 months, (September-October-November 2023), an increased chance of below-normal rainfall is predicted for most of the southern ASEAN region, extending to include the Philippines. El Niño conditions are predicted to strengthen and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is likely to develop in September 2023. Both El Niño conditions and positive IODs tend to bring drier conditions to parts of the ASEAN region. Above-normal temperature is predicted for most of the ASEAN region for September-October-November 2023.
Note: The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general and based on the latest runs from models provided by the SEA RCC-Network LRF node. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.
Sources: ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet), ASEAN Disaster Monitoring and Response System (DMRS), ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) – Indonesia, Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) – Malaysia, Department of Disaster Management (DDM) – Myanmar, National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) – Philippines, Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) – Thailand, Thai Meteorological Department (TMD) – TMD, Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG) – Indonesia, Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) – Indonesia, Philippine Institute for Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) – Philippines, Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) – Philippines
Written by : Keith Paolo Landicho, Sadhu Zukhruf Janottama, Lawrence Anthony Dimailig
DISCLAIMER
The AHA Centre’s estimation is based on data and information shared by National Disaster Management Organisations (NDMOs) and other relevant agencies from ASEAN Member States, international organisations, and news agencies. Further information on each recorded significant disaster, description, and detail of data and information are available at: https://adinet.ahacentre.org/report/