MONTHLY DISASTER REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
SEPTEMBER 2021 | DISASTER MONITORING & ANALYSIS
(DMA) UNIT, AHA CENTRE
GENERAL REVIEW OF SEPTEMBER 2021
For the month of September 2021, a total of 161 disasters were reported. The ASEAN Member States that were affected were Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam. Most of the disasters (69.57%) occurred in Indonesia but Thailand where only 7.45% of the total disasters for September 2021 occurred, comprised more than half of the total number of affected people (63.47%) for the month. The share of the disaster-affected people for other ASEAN Member States was as follows: (1) Cambodia-3.28%, (2) Lao PDR-0.01%, (3) Malaysia-0.03%, (4) Philippines-19.19%, and (5) Viet Nam-1.69%. September 2021 saw disasters affecting 433 per 100,000 people* and displacing 17 per 100,000 people* in the region, nearly five times and 17 times more than the previous month, respectively. September 2021 accounted for 17.65% of the total disasters reported so far in the current year.
Most of the disasters that occurred in September 2021 were floods (63.98%) and this is consistent with September of the previous year and September on a five-year average (2016-2020). September 2021 saw hydrometeorological disasters (drought, flood, rain-induced landslides, storm, winds) affecting 99.9% of the total affected persons for the month. The reported disasters in the region for September 2021 in comparison with the historical data (average for September 2016-2020) indicates that there were 6.44x more reported disasters; 1.45x more people affected; 1.95x fewer people displaced; 5.19x more houses affected to some extent; 1.14x more lives lost; 1.91x fewer people suffering injuries; and lastly, 3.7x fewer people reported missing.
Geophysically, 17 significant earthquakes (Magnitude ≥ 5.0) were reported by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG), Myanmar’s Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH), and the Philippine Institute for Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Recent volcanic activity was reported for Ili Lewotolok and Merapi (Alert Level III), Semeru, Dukono, Ibu and Krakatau (Alert Level II) in Indonesia by the Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG), and Taal (Alert Level 2) and Kanlaon (Alert Level 1) by PHIVOLCS. None have resulted in disasters but are being continuously monitored.
*Computed based on 2020 population data from worldometers.com
ANALYSIS
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), compared with the average value from 2001-2020, during September 2021, rainfall was above-average over much of the ASEAN region except for northern Sumatra, northern Philippines, parts of northern Myanmar, peninsular Malaysia, Borneo and Papua (which received rainfall from below- to near-average). The largest positive anomalies (wetter conditions) were detected over eastern mainland Southeast Asia for both satellite-derived rainfall estimate datasets (GSMaP-NRT and CMORPH-Blended). This is associated with the developments of Tropical Storm CONSON and Tropical Storm DIANMU which made landfall in early September and late September respectively. As a result, hydrometeorological disaster events were reported for numerous areas in Thailand and Viet Nam.
SEASONAL OUTLOOK
For the coming month of October, it is predicted that wetter conditions than normal will set in progressively in the ASEAN region due to the transition to intermonsoon conditions taking place. For the last quarter of the year (October to December), the prevailing southeasterly or southwesterly winds over the ASEAN region are expected to weaken prior to a change in direction to blow from the northeast or northwest.
For the upcoming quarter, according to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), there will be an increased chance of rainfall over much of the ASEAN region with the southern and eastern parts of the maritime continent having the highest likelihood for said conditions. Models are predicting La Niña-like conditions, but the tropical region of the Pacific has yet to show consistent La Niña-like conditions. The negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) detected in the past month is forecast to return to neutral before December 2021. For this time of the year, a negative IOD tends to bring above-average rainfall in the southern ASEAN region. During the last quarter of 2021 also, warmer-than-usual temperatures are expected for much of the maritime continent. In the same period, the northeastern parts of mainland Southeast Asia are predicted to experience below- to near-normal temperatures associated with the northeast monsoon surges.
Considering the persistence of the negative IOD event until December 2021, the progressive settling of wetter conditions over the ASEAN region due to the transition to intermonsoon conditions, and the disaster data records from the ASEAN Disaster Information Network, the number of disaster events (particularly hydrometeorological disasters) and the affected persons, are expected to increase in frequency and number respectively, as the year ends. National Disaster Management Organisations (NDMOs), relevant authorities and agencies, and the public are advised to take necessary preparations and actions accordingly.
*Note from ASMC: The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general and based on the latest runs from models provided by the SEA RCC-Network LRF node. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.
Sources: ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet), ASEAN Disaster Monitoring and Response System (DMRS), ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) – Indonesia, Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) – Malaysia, Department of Disaster Management (DDM) – Myanmar, National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) – Philippines, Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) – Thailand, Viet Nam Disaster Management Authority (VNDMA) – Viet Nam, Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG) – Indonesia, Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) – Indonesia, Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH) – Myanmar, Philippine Institute for Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) – Philippines, Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) – Philippines
Written by : Keith Paolo Landicho, Sadhu Zukhruf Janottama, Lawrence Anthony Dimailig
DISCLAIMER
The AHA Centre’s estimation is based on data and information shared by National Disaster Management Organisations (NDMOs) and other relevant agencies from ASEAN Member States, international organisations, and news agencies. Further information on each recorded significant disaster, description, and detail of data and information are available at: http://adinet.ahacentre.org/reports.
ASEAN DELIVERS ON COVID-19 HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE TO MYANMAR
In a virtual ceremony held on 15 September, USD 1.1 million worth of medical supplies and equipment were handed over to the Myanmar Red Cross Society (MRCS) in support of that nation’s COVID-19 response. Contributing to the implementation of the “Five Point Consensus” on Myanmar agreed at the ASEAN Leaders’ Meeting in April this year, the ASEAN Humanitarian Assistance to Myanmar aims to address the most pressing humanitarian needs of the people of Myanmar.
The AHA Centre, as the operational lead, facilitated the delivery of the assistance, while, the MRCS, as a local partner, supported ASEAN by facilitating the request for tax-exemption and customs-clearance with the Myanmar local authorities, as well as providing temporary storage and last-mile distribution of the medical supplies and equipment to the communities in need in Myanmar.
The handover, which was attended by the Secretary-General of ASEAN H.E. Dato Lim Jock Hoi, the Executive Director of the AHA Centre Mr. Lee Yam Ming, and representatives of ASEAN Member States and donor countries, was the first result of the ASEAN Humanitarian Assistance to Myanmar that was previously promised at a Pledging Conference hosted by the ASEAN Secretary-General.
At the Pledging Conference held on 18 August, Dato Lim Jock Hoi had called for a strong show of support for the people of Myanmar, in the spirit of “One ASEAN, One Response”. The support subsequently handed over to the MRCS is a concrete manifestation of this spirit, provided as it was by the governments of Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Turkey and Temasek Foundation International. The next batch is expected to be provided by Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, and Viet Nam, along with other donor countries and organisations.
Some USD 8 million in monetary pledges and in-kind contributions of medicine, medical supplies and equipment to assist Myanmar in containing the spread of the COVID-19 virus was raised at the conference. During the conference Special Envoy of the United Nations Secretary-General to Myanmar Ms. Christine Schraner Burgener, on behalf of the UN Secretary-General H.E. Antonio Guterres, said,
UN humanitarian actors on the ground led by the United Nations Resident Coordinator and Humanitarian Coordinator will work to strengthen cooperation and seek complementarity with ASEAN’s AHA Centre.
In his remarks at the handover of the aid, Dato Lim Jock Hoi underscored the importance of extending a helping hand to the people of Myanmar in the realisation of a people-oriented, people-centred ASEAN Community. He thanked the five donor countries and Temasek Foundation International, and expressed his confidence that the assistance would alleviate the sufferings of the people of Myanmar in this critical time.
The Special Envoy of the ASEAN Chair on Myanmar, Dato Erywan Pehin Yusof, in his recorded remarks at the handover said the COVID-19 pandemic was “the common enemy” that exposed the vulnerabilities not only of our socio-economic structures, but the fragility of human life. In his remarks, he urged the international community to continue giving support and to complement ASEAN’s efforts, further highlighting that the “provision of humanitarian assistance is a true reflection of the ‘ASEAN Way’, and demonstrated our commitment to help our ASEAN family when they are in need.”
ASEAN’s operational plan led by the AHA Centre will focus firstly on life-saving measures through the provision of immediate needs towards the COVID-19 response and mitigation, and thereafter proceed to address life-sustaining priorities of broader humanitarian needs. ASEAN’s humanitarian assistance will be supported by humanitarian partners in Myanmar, including the MRCS.
Sources:
https://asean.org/asean-delivers-medical-support-to-myanmars-response-to-covid-19/
https://asean.org/close-to-usd8-million-in-pledges-raised-to-support-aseans-humanitarian-assistance-in-myanmar/
Written by : Michael Hegarty | Photo Credit: AHA Centre
INTRODUCING CHARLES SILVA
LACER PROJECT TEAM LEADER
The AHA Center welcomed in August a new team leader for the LACER project, Mr Charles Silva of the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB).
He has previously implemented capacity-building projects in Southeast Asia, a region that he “respects and holds dear”, but the LACER project offers a big leap in scope, given the significant number of people served by the project and its partner institution the AHA Centre. The ASEAN countries have a combined population of over 650 million people and collectively face growing risks from natural disasters and their increasing impact. Recurring earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, flooding and pandemics take a big toll on the region. For this reason, Charles sought the LACER role as he sees himself solidly contributing to addressing this widening humanitarian challenge and the urgent need to reduce the scale of damage, injury and economic loss caused by disasters.
Charles is well used to working in different countries and cultures, a capability which will prove very useful in the ASEAN region, which encompasses many different ethnicities, languages, cultures and histories. His background combines more than 15 years of experience leading initiatives in humanitarian response and capacity-strengthening in disaster risk reduction and management (DRR/DRM) and this should greatly assist him in making the LACER project a success.
What attracted Charles to the AHA Centre was its dedicated team of qualified staff who currently deliver services across a number of key functions of disaster preparedness, response and recovery. He is looking forward to building on this and helping the AHA Centre team to achieve improved capacity in these areas and indeed over the broader range of project areas made accessible by LACER, while in parallel using the links created by the project to strengthen institutional ties between ASEAN bodies and their counterparts in the EU. Charles is convinced that this cooperation will provide a big boost to the overall capacity of ASEAN’s DRR/DRM strategies.
Like the MSB, each national disaster management organisation across the ASEAN region has a unique way of working and a national context in which it operates. According to Charles, this makes cooperation very complex but at the same time rewarding because each agency can contribute something special and important to the regional effort. “I am really eager and interested to expand my learning of how these national agencies undertake key functions such as preparedness and mitigation to understand their potential contribution to the regional capacity,” Charles said.
When asked what he most looks forward to in the coming weeks, he replied that he had a very hands-on approach to his work, so that above all, he was looking forward to quickly deploying to Jakarta and meeting his counterparts in the AHA Centre in person. He also wants to become more familiar with the team here and ongoing activities, as well as launching new activities under the project.
“We have a lot of exciting initiatives coming up and I am eager to roll these out together with our highly capable partners across the ASEAN region”
The father of two children, Olivier, 8, and Leah, who is still a toddler, Charles and his wife Gitu have their home base in Stockholm, but have been on the road for many years, working in humanitarian contexts such as Myanmar and Iraq. The family spent several years in Nepal, where both parents engaged in rebuilding infrastructure damaged by the devastating earthquakes of 2015. They live an active lifestyle and enjoy skiing, sailing and hiking together.
Written by : LACER Project team & Michael Hillary Hegarty | Photo Credit : AHA Centre
MAKING THE GRADE WITH
THE ACE PROGRAMME BATCH SEVEN
Allow me to introduce myself, I am Men Kung and I am currently a Deputy Provincial Director in Charge of Public Administration Reform in the Kingdom of Cambodia and the Permanent Secretary of the Provincial Committee for Disaster Management.
I have been selected as the only representative from Cambodia in the Seventh Batch of the ACE Programme. At its fundamental level, the knowledge about disaster management is learned from doing and experience, and also from workshops and meetings. Nevertheless, I did not expect to get the chance to attend such a terrific course as the ACE Programme.
These past two months the ACE Programme has allowed me to examine the key elements that have been initiated and lead-operated by the AHA Centre to build capacity among public officials in ASEAN Member States. All the teaching materials in each course under the Programme have been extremely comprehensive and the staff are very experienced. During this Programme I have studied many topics relevant to disaster management such as English communications for disaster management, critical incident leadership, the importance of gender, resilience, inclusivity and diversity, the role of the international humanitarian system, ASEAN disaster mechanisms, system and design thinking and many other critical topics in the wide-ranging schedule.
All the above courses have been very important but I especially enjoyed the critical incident leadership course. This course was delivered by GNS New Zealand with the support of the New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade. The course helped me to develop and strengthen my knowledge about new leadership models that relate to my role within organisations and society, both in terms of public administration reform and disaster management, including the framework of meta-leadership, self-awareness and self-reflection.
Furthermore, the ACE Programme also provides opportunities to all participants from ASEAN Member States to share their experiences and encourage cooperation and collaboration to achieve the unique concept of “One ASEAN, One Response”, with a long journey and clear vision and mission. The ACE Programme is on the way to building human resources for ASEAN to inspire future leaders in disaster management.
Based on the curriculum and the results of this training programme, it is clear that the AHA Center is making a significant contribution to building ASEAN’s potential towards achieving ASEAN global integration through peace, prosperity and development, today and in the future. Having entered on the path of the ACE Programme, I intend to study hard and be respectful of the guidelines that have been formulated and hopefully together with my fellow participants to implement the goals of the programme.
Written by: Men Kung, ACE Programme Batch Seven – Cambodia | Photo : AHA Centre