Vol 43-Monthly Disaster Review and Outlook

MONTHLY DISASTER REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
SEPTEMBER | DISASTER MONITORING & ANALYSIS
(DMA) UNIT, AHA CENTRE
GENERAL OVERVIEW OF SEPTEMBER 2018
With the Northwest Monsoon season coming to an end between late September and early October, weather patterns in northern ASEAN will shift from wet with heavy rainfall towards a drier and cooler climate. Occasional storms and thunderstorms may still cause flash floods within certain parts of northern ASEAN. During September, the Philippines experienced Super Typhoon Mangkhut, which passed through the nation’s Northern regions and islands around the vicinity. The typhoon brought about heavy rainfall and triggered deadly landslides, causing significant destruction and devastation to agricultural crops. However, as a result of the changing trade winds, the cyclone season is returning, with increased vigilance required as the likelihood of cyclone formation increases in the Bay of Bengal.
A large number of earthquakes have been recorded throughout the past 2 months. The increased seismic activity has not only been occurring within the region, but also on a global scale. During Week 34 of 2018 (from the 20th to the 26th of August), a total of 232 earthquakes were recorded across the Pacific “Ring of Fire” and its adjacent tectonic plates. Of these recorded earthquakes, 37 (15.9%) were recorded to be M 5.0 and above. Of these major earthquakes (≥M 5.0), 25 (67.6%) occurred within a 48-hour period between the 20th and 22nd of August. Of the 232 earthquakes across the world, 32 (13.8%) were reported within ASEAN region, of which 11 (34.4%) were reported to be M 5.0 and above. The overall increase in seismic activity is currently being monitored by seismological agencies, in the anticipation of increased volcanic activity, earthquakes, tsunamis and other resultant hazards. Nevertheless, during the last few months, the activity of volcanoes in the Philippines and Indonesia have remained within their normal threshold, and have experienced no changes to any of their alert levels.
OCTOBER 2018 OUTLOOK (FORECAST FROM
THE ASEAN SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE)
The Southwest Monsoon season is expected to transition to the inter-monsoon period around mid-October, and persist for some weeks before giving way to the Northeast Monsoon season in late-November/December.
During the coming weeks, the prevailing south-easterly or south-westerly winds are expected to gradually weaken to become light and variable in direction. A gradual strengthening of north-easterly winds can be expected in the later part of the Oct-Nov-Dec (OND) season. Characteristically, this is accompanied by a southward shift of the monsoon rain-band, which will bring more rainfall over the southern ASEAN region. The northern ASEAN region will experience lighter rainfall as the season progresses, while in equatorial areas, below-average rainfall is forecast to continue for October. Temperature-wise, above-average conditions are expected over many parts of ASEAN, with warmer-than-average conditions expected over the equatorial ASEAN – particularly in Borneo and south-eastern Sumatra.
In northern ASEAN, occasional hotspots may emerge as drier conditions set in toward the later part of the OND season, however, should remain subdued in the early parts due to wet weather. In southern ASEAN, brief periods of dry weather may contribute to increased hotspot activities in October. This could lead to an occurrence of transboundary haze affecting some parts of the region. However, an increase in shower activities with the onset of the inter-monsoon period will help subdue hotspot activities. Isolated hotspots may develop occasionally, but these hotspots are expected to be short-lived and localised. In equatorial ASEAN, drier-than-usual weather could to lead to an escalation in hotspot activities and an increased risk of trans-boundary smoke haze.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services as well as Geological Services of ASEAN countries should be consulted.
Written by : Mizan Bisri, Qing Yuan Pang
DISCLAIMER
AHA Centre’s estimation is based on data and information shared by National Disaster Management Organisations (NDMOs) and other relevant agencies from ASEAN Member States, international organisations and news agencies. Further information on each recorded-significant disaster, description and detail of data and information are available at: http://adinet.ahacentre.org/reports.
- Published in Monthly Disaster Outlook
Vol 42-Monthly Disaster Review and Outlook

MONTHLY DISASTER REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
JULY & AUGUST | DISASTER MONITORING & ANALYSIS
(DMA) UNIT, AHA CENTRE
GENERAL OVERVIEW OF JULY AND AUGUST 2018
A two-week period in July saw the development of 5 tropical storms, one of which had a severe affect on the northern ASEAN region. The Southwest monsoon (refer to figure 1.) brought with it heavy torrential rains, resulting in flooding through the Mekong River region. Hydro-meteorological disasters formed the main hazards during this period, and are expected to persist with continued rain over the northern ASEAN region, coupled with drier conditions in southern part of ASEAN.
In contrast to the situation in the northern ASEAN region, droughts in 16 municipalities have been reported across seven consecutive weeks thus far, with one reported wildfire occurrence in the past month. The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre detected hotspots in Indonesia’s Kalimantan and Sumatra during July. General conditions for August remained similar to July, with high rainfall experienced over the northern region, impacting countries in the Mekong region and northern parts of the Philippines.
Throughout the last 2 months, large numbers of earthquakes were recorded and experienced by ASEAN communities. The increased seismic activity is not only restricted to the region,with the phenomenon also seen globally. A total of 232 earthquakes were recorded internationally between the 20th and 26th of August along the Pacific “Ring of Fire” and its adjacent tectonic plates. Of these recorded earthquakes, 37 (15.9%) were recorded at a scale of M 5.0 or above, with 25 (67.6%) of these major earthquakes (≥M 5.0) occurring within a span of 48 hours between August 20th to 22nd. Of these 232 earthquakes, 32 (13.8%) were reported within the ASEAN region. Of the 32 recorded in the region, 11 (34.4%) were reported to be M 5.0 and above. The increasing seismic activity is currently being observed by seismological agencies in anticipation of increased volcanic activity, earthquakes, tsunamis and other related hazards. Nevertheless, in July and August 2018, activity of volcanoes in Philippines and Indonesia stayed within their normal threshold, with no changes in any of their alert levels
The prevailing Southwest Monsoon season is expected to persist until October 2018, with prevailing winds in the region blowing from the southeast or southwest. Climatologically, the Southwest Monsoon season is characterised by rainy conditions in the northern ASEAN region, and dry conditions in the southern ASEAN region.
OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST-OCTOBER 2018
Warmer than average conditions can be expected over the equatorial ASEAN region, especially in Borneo and south-eastern Sumatra, while near-average or slightly above-average temperatures are forecasted over most other areas during the August-October season.
For the equatorial ASEAN region, below-average rainfall is forecasted between August and October. The drier-than-usual weather could to lead to an escalation in hotspot activities and an increased risk of transboundary smoke haze.
Near-average rainfall is forecasted for the rest of the region, including the northern ASEAN region. Hotspot activities in the northern ASEAN region are likely to remain subdued due to wet weather. The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant National Meteorological and Hydrological Services as well as Geological Services should be consulted.
Written by : Mizan Bisri, Qing Yuan Pang
DISCLAIMER
AHA Centre’s estimation is based on data and information shared by National Disaster Management Organisations (NDMOs) and other relevant agencies from ASEAN Member States, international organisations and news agencies. Further information on each recorded-significant disaster, description and details of data and information are available at: http://adinet.ahacentre.org/reports.
- Published in Monthly Disaster Outlook
Vol 36-Monthly Disaster Outlook

MONTHLY DISASTER REVIEW OUTLOOK
JANUARY AND FEBRUARY 2018 | DISASTER MONITORING & ANALYSIS
(DMA) UNIT, AHA CENTRE
GENERAL OVERVIEW OF JAN AND FEB 2018
Between January and February 2018, a total of 57 disasters were reported from within ASEAN Member States. Due to the higher-than-average rainfall; 57.8% of all disasters reported in this period are attributed to floods. In addition, landslides are of major concern in areas prone to slope failure which potentially cause disruptions and significant damage to major circulatory transport systems, as well as impacting communities and trade. In the northern ASEAN region, record-low temperatures have been reported during this winter season, with storms recorded in Viet Nam, Thailand and Cambodia. Whereas the emergency response operation for Typhoon Tembin was extended until the third week of January, additional impact of Tropical Storm Sanba (Basyang) affected more than two hundred-thousand people in the Philippines.
Earthquakes and volcanic activity remain high on the agenda, with two significant earthquakes observed in the region. A magnitude 6.1 earthquake occurred on the 23rd of January 2018, affecting provinces of Banten, West Java and Jakarta in Indonesia. Although there were over seven thousand homes damaged, the emergency response was managed well by the Indonesian authorities. More recently, a magnitude 7.6 earthquake was recorded in Papua New Guinea on February 26th, with tremors felt and light damage caused in several regencies of the Papua Province (Indonesia). The earthquake was followed by 53 strong aftershocks (M 5.0 and above) within the following week, without additional damage experienced in any parts of Indonesia. Also in Indonesia, the situation on Mount Agung, Bali, has greatly improved, with its alert level being lowered, and its mandatory exclusion zone relaxed. In the Philippines, Mount Mayon’s Phreatomagmatic Eruption, has been ongoing throughout January & February. This activity has affected the daily lives of more than 90,000 people in the Albay Province, yet there have been no human casualties reported, showcasing the result of effective preparedness and response.
OUTLOOK FOR MARCH AND APRIL 2018
ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) has forecasted that during the coming months, the region will begin a gradual transition from the current Northeast Monsoon season to the inter-monsoon period. The inter-monsoon period (April and May) is a transition period that sees low-level winds in the region being generally light and variable in direction, with an increase in light rain activity expected across ASEAN during this time.
For the March-April-May 2018 season, slightly below-average to near-average rainfall is forecasted for most parts of Southeast Asia, except for the Philippines, who can expect slightly above-average rainfall during these months. During March and April, slightly above-normal rainfall is forecasted over the northern parts of Kalimantan and Sulawesi, as well as the western districts of Papua.
Written by : Mizan Bisri, Qing Yuan Pang
DISCLAIMER
AHA Centre’s estimation is based on data and information shared by National Disaster Management Organisations (NDMOs) and other relevant agencies from ASEAN Member States, international organisations and news agencies. Further information on each recorded-significant disaster, description and details of data and information are available at: http://adinet.ahacentre.org/reports.
- Published in Monthly Disaster Outlook
Vol 40-Monthly Disaster Review and Outlook

MONTHLY DISASTER REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
JUNE 2018 | DISASTER MONITORING & ANALYSIS
(DMA) UNIT, AHA CENTRE
GENERAL OVERVIEW OF JUNE 2018
There was a three-fold increase in the number of disasters recorded during June 2018 (45 in total) in comparison to the same time during 2017 (15 disasters). An onset of numerous weather events caused this spike in disasters, with the southwest monsoons, Tropical Depression (TD) Domeng, TD Ewiniar, TD Ester and TS Florita causing floods and landslides throughout the Philippines, Viet Nam and Myanmar. In contrast, several areas south of the equator, particularly Indonesia’s Central Java and Yogyakarta provinces, have experienced the onset of drought conditions, consistent with the shift to the region’s dry season. This such phenomena indicates a similar pattern to 2017, which saw northern parts of ASEAN experiencing wet season floods, while southern parts experienced dry season drought events (see Figure 1) . Overall, 20 flood events, 11 storms and 4 wind-related disasters were recorded throughout June 2018.
In terms of geological hazards, 26 earthquakes registering ≥ M 4.5 were observed across Indonesia and the Philippines. However, only two were strong enough to cause property damage (East Java and Papua provinces of Indonesia, on the 13th and 15th of June respectively. Towards the end of June 2018, concerns were raised due to increased activity reported on Bali’s Mount Agung, which released ash plumes and resulted in a strombolian-type eruption.
OUTLOOK FOR JULY-AUGUST 2018
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), most parts of the ASEAN region will continue to experience wet weather, as the rain band associated with Typhoon Prapiroon affects the region. Hotspot activities have remained subdued, but isolated events have been detected in Viet Nam and Lao PDR. During the first week of July, dry weather is expected to affect Java, and may exacerbate the ongoing drought events. Aside from such southern areas, wet weather is likely to persist over other parts of the ASEAN region. For tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts, the Philippine Atmospheric. Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) expects that 10-14 TCs will form and enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility throughout the six months between July and December 2018.
Close and continuous monitoring is still required for Mount Sinabung (Alert Level IV) and Mount Agung (Alert Level III) in Indonesia, particularly due to historic Mount Agung eruptions, which lasted up to one year during 1963-1964.
Written by : Mizan Bisri, Qing Yuan Pang
DISCLAIMER
AHA Centre’s estimation is based on data and information shared by National Disaster Management Organisations (NDMOs) and other relevant agencies from ASEAN Member States, international organisations and news agencies. Further information on each recorded-significant disaster, description and details of data and information are available at: http://adinet.ahacentre.org/reports.
- Published in Monthly Disaster Outlook
Vol 37-Monthly Disaster Outlook

MONTHLY DISASTER REVIEW OUTLOOK
MARCH 2018 | DISASTER MONITORING & ANALYSIS
(DMA) UNIT, AHA CENTRE
GENERAL OVERVIEW OF MARCH 2018
Hydro-meteorological disasters, particularly floods, strong winds and storms, continued to dominate disaster occurrence figures in March 2018. During the month, flash-flooding events due to extreme rainfall within a short amount of time, occasionally triggering landslides as a secondary disaster, as evident in several events across Indonesia. Localised strong winds and storms caused damage in Cambodia, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam.
In terms of geological hazards, moderate-to-strong earthquakes (≥ M 5.0) were observed in Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines, triggering minor local disruptions without having a significant impact on communities. The ASEAN Earthquake Information Center (AEIC) recorded four earthquakes with a magnitude stronger than M 6.0, three of these-originating in Papua New Guinea – were felt as far across as the Papua Province of Indonesia. Volcanic activities of Mount Mayon in the Philippines continued to affect more than 90,000 people in the nearby Albay Province. On Mount Sinabung, Mount Ijen and Mount Dieng (in East and Central Java provinces Indonesia), toxic gas releases were recorded, and while there were no significant eruptions, the release on Mount Ijen prompted a mandatory evacuation of local communities.
OUTLOOK FOR APRIL-MAY 2018
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Center (ASMC), the April-May 2018 season can expect slightly below-normal to near-normal rainfall. This is forecasted for most parts of Southeast Asia, except the Philippines. During April 2018, slightly above-normal rainfall is forecast over the northern regions of Kali-mantan and Sulawesi, and western parts of Papua in Indonesia. Towards May 2018, slightly below normal rainfall is expected for most parts of Kalimantan (Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei Darussalam), Sumatra, Java, Bali and the Nusa Tenggara archipelago of Indonesia. ASMC also stated that there is around 60% chance of La Niña conditions lasting until to end of April 2018, and then a return to neutral conditions during May.
Indonesian Centre for Volcanology and Geological Disaster Mitigation PVMBG states that for April 2018, areas in western Sumatra, south of central Java, north-eastern Borneo, eastern Sulawesi and northern Papua will be prone to ground movement inducing, landslide events. Continuous monitoring for potential humani-tarian consequences will also be required due to the activity of Mount Sinabung (‘PVMBG’s arlet level: warning) and Mount Agung (‘PVMBG’s arlet level: watch) in Indonesia, as well as Mount Mayon and Mt. Kanlaon (PHIVOLCS’ alert level 2, – moderate level of unrest) in the Philippines. Moderate-to-strong earthquakes are still expected in the bordering region between Papua (Indonesia) and Papua New Guinea.
Written by : Mizan Bisri, Qing Yuan Pang
DISCLAIMER
AHA Centre’s estimation is based on data and information shared by National Disaster Management Organisations (NDMOs) and other relevant agencies from ASEAN Member States, international organisations and news agencies. Further information on each recorded-significant disaster, description and details of data and information are available at: http://adinet.ahacentre.org/reports.
- Published in Monthly Disaster Outlook
Vol 38-Monthly Disaster Review and Outlook

MONTHLY DISASTER REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
APRIL 2018 | DISASTER MONITORING & ANALYSIS
(DMA) UNIT, AHA CENTRE
GENERAL OVERVIEW OF APRIL 2018
Flood and wind-related disasters had by far the highest number of occurrences during April 2018. ASEAN should remain prepared as changes in seasonal and weather patterns occur, increasing the probability and varying impact of hydro-meteorological disasters. According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), the northern ASEAN region continued through its traditional dry season, while wetter conditions were experienced in the south of the region, as the monsoon through and its associated rain-band settled close to the Equator. Hailstorms were a notable phenomenon last month in Lao PDR and North-Eastern Thailand, resulting in adverse impacts on power lines, infrastructure and agriculture.
22 moderate-to-strong earthquakes (> M 5.0) were observed across Indonesia, Myanmar and the Philippines during the month, causing minor disruptions locally, but without significant humanitarian impact. One notable event was the M 4.4 earthquake reported in Banjarnegara, Indonesia, with the shallow quake centre and the area’s loose soil conditions causing severe damage to 465 houses (57.8% suffered partial to total collapse).
Technological disasters also took place during April, most notably a range of landfill fires in Myanmar that threatened the health and livelihoods of significant numbers of residents in nearby areas. Significant numbers of people were affected by fumes resulting from these fires, with residents living close to the landfill site experiencing the worst conditions. Starting on the 21st of April, smoke from the fires covered 20 townships across Yangon, with an increased likelihood of adverse health effects – particularly for children and the elderly – experienced by almost 800,000 people within a 30 km radius of the fires.
OUTLOOK FOR MAY-JUNE 2018
The region is expected to gradually transition from the current Northeast Monsoon conditions, to the inter-monsoon conditions in May 2018 – in which low-level winds in the region are generally light and variable in direction, with an increase in shower activities to be expected. Some parts of the northern ASEAN region may continue to experience dry conditions in May 2018, but are likely to ease off with an increase in shower activities as the inter-monsoon period takes hold. For the southern ASEAN region, shower activities are expected over most parts of the area.
For the rest of the April-May-June 2018 season, the northern ASEAN region is likely to experience near-normal rainfall levels, aside from coastal areas of the Andaman Sea and the Philippines, where there is an increased chance of above-normal rainfall. In the southern ASEAN region, slightly below-normal to near-normal rainfall can be expected.
Written by : Mizan Bisri, Qing Yuan Pang
DISCLAIMER
AHA Centre’s estimation is based on data and information shared by National Disaster Management Organisations (NDMOs) and other relevant agencies from ASEAN Member States, international organisations and news agencies. Further information on each recorded-significant disaster, description and details of data and information are available at: http://adinet.ahacentre.org/reports.
- Published in Monthly Disaster Outlook
Vol 39-Monthly Disaster Review and Outlook

MONTHLY DISASTER REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
MAY 2018 | DISASTER MONITORING & ANALYSIS
(DMA) UNIT, AHA CENTRE
GENERAL OVERVIEW OF MAY 2018
Hydro-meteorological hazards continued to form a majority of disasters within the ASEAN region during May 2018. Using yearly data comparisons, it is evidenced that the ASEAN region experienced twice as many disasters when compared to the same time period last year. Data for the initial three weeks of the period showed low numbers of recorded disasters. However, numbers increased significantly as Tropical Depression 5 developed and moved across Sulu Sea and into the South China Sea. This situation resulted in flooding, storm surges and strong wind events across Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei Darussalam and Viet Nam. Monsoon season has begun in areas within proximity of the Indian Ocean, which creates increased flood risks for northern Myanmar along the Irrawaddy basin. This is consistent with ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre’s (ASMC) observation of the end of the dry season on the 16th of May, marked by an increase in shower activities across the northern part of the ASEAN region.
There were 37 moderate earthquakes with magnitudes of > M .4.0 felt in Indonesia and the Philippines, which were observed at around II to IV MMI. Despite the magnitude of such events, no casualties or damage was reported as a result of earthquakes in both countries. As of the end of May, the alert status for volcanoes in Indonesia are as follows – Warning Alert (Awas, the highest of 4 levels) for Mount Sinabung in North Sumatra; Watch Alert (Siaga, second highest) for Mount Agung in Bali; and Cautionary Alert (Waspada, a level 3 alert) for 19 other volcanoes across the nation. Despite its Cautionary alert level, Mount Merapi in Central Java, Indonesia, has experienced significant increased activity recorded on the mountain, with phreatic eruptions and release of volcanic ash columns beginning on the 21st of May. Three eruptions at the end of Week 22 (1st of June 2018) forced two airports in Central Java to temporarily shut down their operations as a result of the ash plume.
OUTLOOK FOR JUNE-JULY 2018
According to the ASMC, wet weather conditions are expected over the northern parts of the ASEAN region for the rest June, with more shower activities forecast as the transition to the Southwest Monsoon is expected to begin during the month. Rainfall can be expected to increase during this time due to the presence of the monsoonal rain band across the north of the ASEAN region. The Southwest Monsoon season typically prevails over the region between June and October, and is associated with the traditional dry season in southern parts of ASEAN contrasting with the wet season in northern parts of the ASEAN region.
In stark contrast to the northern ASEAN region, extended periods of dry weather can be expected during June and July in the southern reaches of ASEAN. This may lead to an escalation of hotspot activities, with smoke plumes should ignition occur, particularly in parts of Sumatra and Kalimantan. Slightly below-normal to near-normal rainfall may still occur over most parts of the region during this period, with below-normal to slightly below-normal rainfall expected for Java, Nusa Tenggara and Timor Leste during the early part of the Southwest Monsoon season.
As always, you should keep posted on weather updates from your respective Meteorological Services and Disaster Management Organisations for evacuation notices (if any). You can refer to our social media for links to the respective national agencies and organisations for further information.
Written by : Mizan Bisri, Qing Yuan Pang
DISCLAIMER
AHA Centre’s estimation is based on data and information shared by National Disaster Management Organisations (NDMOs) and other relevant agencies from ASEAN Member States, international organisations and news agencies. Further information on each recorded-significant disaster, description and details of data and information are available at: http://adinet.ahacentre.org/reports.
- Published in Monthly Disaster Outlook